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Visa Bulletin: September 2013 (Coming Soon)

Agu said:
The E-DV initial application is indicating Married.
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Ok, then he's not facing an automatic disqualification at this stage. But there's still the issue of the previous visa he applied for claiming he was single while married. It may, or it may not cause an issue at the time of the interview. It depends on how diligently the CO scrutinizes his papers and the result of his background check.
 
kayend said:
97** should be safe to expect interview by Mar or Apr. Not sure whether they will put any limit for Nepal or Iran this year but even it did, 97** is still a safe case # in my opinion.
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kayend im from nepal and my case no is 2014AS000025** when will i have my interview
 
Sm1smom said:
The referenced person in this story isn't likely to get issued with a visa IMO. He has a marriage certificate dated 2009, regardless of whether he's got other documents or not processed as "single" since he got married, his E-DV marital status should have indicated "MARRIED". He's toast if he shows up at the interview with marriage certificate showing 2009 as date of marriage.
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Sm1smom said:
Ok, then he's not facing an automatic disqualification at this stage. But there's still the issue of the previous visa he applied for claiming he was single while married. It may, or it may not cause an issue at the time of the interview. It depends on how diligently the CO scrutinizes his papers and the result of his background check.
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Thanks for your response.
He sure that applied as Married and uploaded his wife's passport photo at initial application. Do they normally show marital status in notification letters or is it any other way to check that before interview?
 
raevsky said:
Just added Iran to the table.

So, you could say that limit is imposed when the number of winners is at least 4900. That would work for all countries except Iran. Iran has more than that and no limits in DV-2013.
I do not see a direct way to figure anything out just by looking at this data. Maybe it has something to do with history.
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Raevsky,
If cutoff limit will be imposed for Nepal, what will be the range of the limit?
 
Agu said:
Thanks for your response.
He sure that applied as Married and uploaded his wife's passport photo at initial application. Do they normally show marital status in notification letters or is it any other way to check that before interview?
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Unfortunately, the 1NL doesn't indicate marital status, nor list derivatives on it either. Also, there's no way to check or confirm what was listed before the interview (which is why people are always encouraged to print out/safe a copy of the E-DV application itself as at the time of the regisration).
 
intrepidfox said:
Raevsky,
If cutoff limit will be imposed for Nepal, what will be the range of the limit?
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Let's talk about the limit first. It would be about 14xxx-15xxx. Cutoffs will move up to this number and could become current (but I cannot imagine that the region cutoff is less that country cutoff; region cutoff will not be current in dv-14; so this year final cutoffs for Nepal in September 2014 could be 14xxx-15xxx).

It is too early to give more precise numbers. When Kathmandu consulate provides it's first set of data in CEAC, it will be possible to say more.
 
Max number for Iran 10000, max number for Nepal 14000, max number for any other country in Asia 27000 would keep the hole rate for Asia exactly the same as before - 15%.
 
raevsky, did I remember it right that you calculated around 33,000 for Europe? What do you think esp. about Germany, some friends ask.
 
Around 33000-35000 for Europe. Germany is no different from other EU countries. Only Ukraine and Uzbekistan are special.
When I say the country has a limit, it basically means a vast majority of winning numbers from that country are already under the limit. So those who won from those special countries are risking much less than others to end up under final cutoff. Just because their numbers are already low. So special countries have lower probability to win, but have also much lower probability not to be able to get to the interview because of the cut offs.
 
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raevsky said:
Around 33000-35000 for Europe. Germany is no different from other EU countries. Only Ukraine and Uzbekistan are special.
When I say the country has a limit, it basically means a vast majority of winning numbers from that country are already under the limit. So those who won from those special countries are risking much less than others to end up under final cutoff. Just because their numbers are already low. So special countries have lower probability to win, but have also much lower probability not to be able to get to the interview because of the cut offs.
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But this only make sense when it become current. If not, even the special countries might not get their visa because the visa might be exhausted. Assuming the progress of the special countries are much slower than the non-special countries. Of course if the cut off applied to the special countries.
 
Yes, true. Just because special cutoffs cannot be higher than regional cutoffs, those special countries are in some kind of advantage in this process (after being already disadvantaged with lower probability)
 
raevsky said:
Yes, true. Just because special cutoffs cannot be higher than regional cutoffs, those special countries are in some kind of advantage in this process (after being already disadvantaged with lower probability)
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This mean if special countries with cut off applied to them it will have disadvantage over special countries that do not have cut off applied to them. So, it go back to the question what is the criteria to decide the cut off.
 
Can anyone give an estimation regarding the cutoff of Uzbekistan in DV2014? and how safe is EU10XXX?

Is the bulletin of November numbers expected to be published in mid September?

Thanks!
 
morpheus1234 said:
Can anyone give an estimation regarding the cutoff of Uzbekistan in DV2014? and how safe is EU10XXX?

Is the bulletin of November numbers expected to be published in mid September?

Thanks!
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Depends how fast numbers are moving. I expect slow progress this year and would assume January.

Yes, in September
 
morpheus1234 said:
Can anyone give an estimation regarding the cutoff of Uzbekistan in DV2014? and how safe is EU10XXX?

Is the bulletin of November numbers expected to be published in mid September?

Thanks!
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EU10k is very safe.

Yes mid September is when we will see the November VB.
 
Tazmania said:
I expect slow progress this year and would assume January.
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Really - for EU10k??? I'd agree that 3000 per month is about what they were doing last year but I would be surprised if they don't manage to clear the 8k for October and then take care of the next 2k in November...
 
about 2nl in asian case!!

its my request to raevsky that when would you expect my interview provided that i have my own classmate with 2014AS00013*** from Nepal.my case number is 2014AS000080**.
 
AS8000 - mid-late spring, maybe early summer. Nepalese number 13xxx would be closer to the end of fiscal year 2014.
I do not really think it is possible to make something like a schedule now.
What I can say for sure - number 8000 will get an interview, and nepalese number 13xxxx will most likely have it as well.
 
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