Visa Bulletin: September 2013 (Coming Soon)
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That is between 13xxx and 19xxx depending on whether Iran or Nepal or both are going to have an upper limit different from other countries. If they are not going to have a number like that, it is closer to 18xxx-19xxx. If both of them are going to have a separate limit, that is closer to 13xxx. If only one country has it, it could be in between.
What is the max Iranian number have you seen? What is the max Nepalese one?
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Sloner, do you believe that any winners will not get an interview? Are you saying any number will be OK? Seems like with 140k selectees, there must be some that will miss out - don't you think?
I'm pretty sure some will not get an interview. For example EU region has an increase of 40% in winners, there is no way that is will result in a GC for everyone.
I'm pretty sure some will not get an interview. For example EU region has an increase of 40% in winners, there is no way that is will result in a GC for everyone. And raevsky calaculated a number in another thread that EU region cut-offs most likely will end around 33,000
intrepidfox
Registered Users (C)
Any assumption and points to support above saying.
Iran in DV-13 before additional notification had 6029 winners in DV-13.
CEAC data for Iran before number 9413 (where the break is) has 3386 family members, and 3536 total (after additional notification). THat means the number of iranian winners after it would be
3536/3386*6029 = 6296
Same for Nepal 3057/2794*4370 = 4781.
Same for the rest of Asia 3163/2865 *6854 = 7567.
Now. New number for Iran in DV-14 6027.
6027/6296*10682 (max number in dv-13) = 10225 (max number for iran in dv-14).
In the same way for Nepal, new number 6082
6082 / 4781 * 10682 = 13590 (max number for Nepal).
For the rest of Asia new numbers in dv-14 is 11161 = 23270 - 6027-6082.
So, 11161/7567*10682 = 15760.
So, if both Iran and Nepal have special kimits, the max for other countries would be about 15760.
Another way to do it is to say that if 11161 (rest of Asia) are spread out until 27000, then 7567 (needed to fill the same quota as in DV-13) would end at 18305.
If, on the other hand, Iran and Nepal do not have special limits, the asian max number would be
27000*(6296+4781+7567)/11161 = 21630.
So, any way, the expected limits for Nepal and Iran would be (if implemented) around 13600 and 10200 correspondingly. And max for Asia would be about 14000-18000 if both Nepal and Iran have special limis, like Ukraine and Uzbekistan, or about 20000-21000 if no lomits like that exist.
CEAC data for Iran before number 9413 (where the break is) has 3386 family members, and 3536 total (after additional notification). THat means the number of iranian winners after it would be
3536/3386*6029 = 6296
Same for Nepal 3057/2794*4370 = 4781.
Same for the rest of Asia 3163/2865 *6854 = 7567.
Now. New number for Iran in DV-14 6027.
6027/6296*10682 (max number in dv-13) = 10225 (max number for iran in dv-14).
In the same way for Nepal, new number 6082
6082 / 4781 * 10682 = 13590 (max number for Nepal).
For the rest of Asia new numbers in dv-14 is 11161 = 23270 - 6027-6082.
So, 11161/7567*10682 = 15760.
So, if both Iran and Nepal have special kimits, the max for other countries would be about 15760.
Another way to do it is to say that if 11161 (rest of Asia) are spread out until 27000, then 7567 (needed to fill the same quota as in DV-13) would end at 18305.
If, on the other hand, Iran and Nepal do not have special limits, the asian max number would be
27000*(6296+4781+7567)/11161 = 21630.
So, any way, the expected limits for Nepal and Iran would be (if implemented) around 13600 and 10200 correspondingly. And max for Asia would be about 14000-18000 if both Nepal and Iran have special limis, like Ukraine and Uzbekistan, or about 20000-21000 if no lomits like that exist.
Then max number for Asia will be higher.
Special limit for Nepal is possible because the number of Nepalese winners increased only 39% while the rest of Asia (AS minus nepal minus Iran) almost twice.
hello all dear frend i know u all are so dedicate about dv lottery nd u all r expert also. my case no. is as000033 so there is any chance to my cae no. will in nov. cut of number ... i appreciate your feedback
Please help
Am a winner from Africa
Please friends, I wanna know if there's by any means one can be able to know what he/she has filled during the initial application of DV-2014.
Maybe if KCC notices any inconsistency between ones' intial application and DS-230, DSP-122, does it lead to immediate disqualification or they will still send the forms to embassy for interview.
Am a winner from Africa
Please friends, I wanna know if there's by any means one can be able to know what he/she has filled during the initial application of DV-2014.
Maybe if KCC notices any inconsistency between ones' intial application and DS-230, DSP-122, does it lead to immediate disqualification or they will still send the forms to embassy for interview.
I do not understand your statement about fools.Why did you take in 2013? here it's different, you can not understand it? you that think the KCC and people for fools?you do not succeed, try in vain.
But percentage of holes cannot just jump from 15% in DV-2013 to 40% in DV-2014. Holes are from disqualified entries. In order to change their percentage they need to significantly change the criteria. That cannot change the percenrage in one single region only Asia, that would do it in all countries. When Bangladesh was present, percentage of holes was about the same after we exclude Bangladesh.
So, if you "cut" certain country, it would look like the percentage of holes has changed. So the only way how they could increase the percentage of holes so significantly is they have to cut certain countries.
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