Visa Bulletin: September 2013 (Coming Soon)
- Thread starter gabam
- Start date
To get the passing score for Europe - around 33000. Those two countries do not affect the 54000 term used in the calculation. Only the other two terms.
Hi Raevsky !
if you can friendly talk with Sloner here , why you can't do it there ? in govorompro
may be its time to "open" him with his original nickname? like they did it with you here
regards
yeah , for couple of mudakovThere I was persona non grata
Raevsky was banned here when he emotionally disagreed with some "wishful" guys , who said that high numbers have chances to get an interview -
but finally Raevsky was "opened" here
You were banned there because you were too hopeful with high case numbers!
So whats the matter now?
if he is a fair man ,he must open your original account , especially because he is a moderator there.
It is pretty much obvious at this point to everybody - here and there - that high numbers will not get interviews.
That is also what I was saying in both places.
Why I was banned here was not because I disagreed with "wishful" people, but because I interfered with the business that owns this forum. I was trying to explain people with high numbers that submitting documents to KCC could be almost useless for them in terms of getting an immigrant visa, but could be very harmful in terms of further getting certain types of non-immigrant visas. And that was contrary to the purpose of this forum - to supply more rather than less clients to the business, or maybe to another business.
The reason why Sloner was banned there was not because of his "wishful" thinking, but because he used the same ip address to create new users. BTW he was not banned by myself, and I do not even have access to his ip addresses.
Because I was not the one who banned him there, I do not have the power to unban him, even if he stops his practice to use the same ip address for multiple users.
That is also what I was saying in both places.
Why I was banned here was not because I disagreed with "wishful" people, but because I interfered with the business that owns this forum. I was trying to explain people with high numbers that submitting documents to KCC could be almost useless for them in terms of getting an immigrant visa, but could be very harmful in terms of further getting certain types of non-immigrant visas. And that was contrary to the purpose of this forum - to supply more rather than less clients to the business, or maybe to another business.
The reason why Sloner was banned there was not because of his "wishful" thinking, but because he used the same ip address to create new users. BTW he was not banned by myself, and I do not even have access to his ip addresses.
Because I was not the one who banned him there, I do not have the power to unban him, even if he stops his practice to use the same ip address for multiple users.
SusieQQQ
Well-Known Member
Raevsky actually has a point about immigrant intent. For people with high numbers who may not get an interview, it would certainly make more sense to watch the visa bulletins and submit the forms later if it's starting to look promising.
It's a high-stakes game to play though, because if you leave sending in your forms too late and they don't have time to process them you might find yourself missing out. Then again I know of someone on another forum who only discovered he was a winner late July or early August last year, he had been current for months when he found out (actually via KCC reminding him so I guess they were desperate to fill the quota) and he had an interview organised within a couple of weeks of sending in the forms.
Of course, the immigrant intent angle is less of an issue if (1) you probably won't be visiting the US as a tourist anyway or (2) you have enough to demonstrate in the way of ties to your country of residence to convince a CO to grant you a B1/B2 visa anyway.
It's a high-stakes game to play though, because if you leave sending in your forms too late and they don't have time to process them you might find yourself missing out. Then again I know of someone on another forum who only discovered he was a winner late July or early August last year, he had been current for months when he found out (actually via KCC reminding him so I guess they were desperate to fill the quota) and he had an interview organised within a couple of weeks of sending in the forms.
Of course, the immigrant intent angle is less of an issue if (1) you probably won't be visiting the US as a tourist anyway or (2) you have enough to demonstrate in the way of ties to your country of residence to convince a CO to grant you a B1/B2 visa anyway.
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Now, why Asian passing number is much higher (according to what I think now) than I though before. They have much higher percentage of holes. So in DV-13 they needed 10680 numbers for 16045 winners (9100 entries). In DV-14 they will need about 18600 numbers for the same amount of entries. The rest are holes. 15% holes in DV-13 and 51% holes in DV-14. Something has significantly changed in AS region.
I could even guess what has changed. Iran and Nepal could be added to the gang of six (Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana and Nigeria). Now we could have gang of two in Asia. And that would give me an idea how to recalculate the numbers in a different way.
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Bramb90
Member
if not November, definitely December!
Britsimon
Super Moderator
I think Brambo has nailed it - possibly November and if not - then December.
Thanks guys. Lets hope it progress faster like in October.
Although I live in US, I chose CP route to get it faster.
Although I live in US, I chose CP route to get it faster.
Kayend
Active Member
Interesting...
Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana and Nigeria in 5-6k mark
Congo, Nepal and Iran also the same in DV14.
So, are all this countries have something similar to Bangladesh?
Possibly. Unfortunately, I cannot check Bangladesh with CEAC tool.
Raevsky , a couple of months ago the existence of hidden numbers was thrue for you like 2+2
now you say
does it means that you started doubting ,that 2+2=4??????
and your latest
what is now 100% obvious is that to beleive to your obvious statements and reading your complicated calculations - is obviously waste of time !
p.s ... later
Here are countries where the number of winners in DV-14 is more than 3500:
Cameroon, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, Iran, Kenya, Nigeria, Ukraine, Uzbekistan are close to 1 in spite of huge increase in the rest of the world. I have an impression they are cut by an artificial "limit".
On the other hand, only 5000 countries were in the gang before. So, we might still need to exclude Cameroon, Kenya, and maybe Ghana (because of the sudden drop).
Nepal, Iran and Congo are not clear, they might be included. More thoughts will follow...
Previously we had only 6 countries in the gang - Uzbekistan, Ukraine, Egypt, Ghana, Nigeria, Ethiopia.
name winners in DV-13 winners in DV-14, increase rate
Cameroon 3,858 4,268 1.10627268
Congo, Democratic Republic of The 3,924 6,025 1.535423038
Egypt 5,015 5,757 1.147956132
Ethiopia 4,910 5,718 1.164562118
Ghana 5,105 3,945 0.772771792
Iran 6,029 6,027 0.99966827
Kenya 4,410 4,245 0.962585034
Liberia 1,916 3,809 1.987995825
Nepal 4,370 6,082 1.391762014
Nigeria 6,218 6,043 0.971855902
Russia 2,846 4,544 1.596626845
Turkey 1,807 3,972 2.198118428
Ukraine 6,424 6,009 0.935398506
Uzbekistan 5,101 5,014 0.982944521
Cameroon, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, Iran, Kenya, Nigeria, Ukraine, Uzbekistan are close to 1 in spite of huge increase in the rest of the world. I have an impression they are cut by an artificial "limit".
On the other hand, only 5000 countries were in the gang before. So, we might still need to exclude Cameroon, Kenya, and maybe Ghana (because of the sudden drop).
Nepal, Iran and Congo are not clear, they might be included. More thoughts will follow...
Previously we had only 6 countries in the gang - Uzbekistan, Ukraine, Egypt, Ghana, Nigeria, Ethiopia.
name winners in DV-13 winners in DV-14, increase rate
Cameroon 3,858 4,268 1.10627268
Congo, Democratic Republic of The 3,924 6,025 1.535423038
Egypt 5,015 5,757 1.147956132
Ethiopia 4,910 5,718 1.164562118
Ghana 5,105 3,945 0.772771792
Iran 6,029 6,027 0.99966827
Kenya 4,410 4,245 0.962585034
Liberia 1,916 3,809 1.987995825
Nepal 4,370 6,082 1.391762014
Nigeria 6,218 6,043 0.971855902
Russia 2,846 4,544 1.596626845
Turkey 1,807 3,972 2.198118428
Ukraine 6,424 6,009 0.935398506
Uzbekistan 5,101 5,014 0.982944521
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Iran did not actually increase the number of winners. Napal increased fro, 4370 winners to 6082, that is 39% increase. The rest of Asia increased from 5646 = 16045 - 6029 - 4370 to 11161 = 23270 - 6027 - 6082. That is 1.98 times increase. If 11161 others is achieved at 27000 (as we saw), then 16045 (necessary to provide all visas for quota) will be achieved at number 13658 = 27000/11161*5646
Basically, we assume Iran will have a limit and Nepal will have a different limit.
How to check that?
Take all Nepalese numbers you know and see if they are all under a limit below 27000. Do the same for Iran.
Limit for Iran could be at the level of about number 11000, and limit for Nepal at the limit of about number 13700.
Then passing level would be about the same 13700.
Basically, we assume Iran will have a limit and Nepal will have a different limit.
How to check that?
Take all Nepalese numbers you know and see if they are all under a limit below 27000. Do the same for Iran.
Limit for Iran could be at the level of about number 11000, and limit for Nepal at the limit of about number 13700.
Then passing level would be about the same 13700.
Yes, all three will exist