Visa Bulletin: September 2013 (Coming Soon)

[Sushihanako]

BTW, I really have absolutely no idea about what number 120000 came from (it was mentioned in the winning notification).

If I remember right, the winning notification says approx. 125,000 were registered.
It is just my guess, but 125,000 may be from 140000-13877. 13877 is the number of sum of selectees above 3500 in countries which have more than 3500 selectees (7% of 50000).
For example, if every single Turkish selectee passes an interview, 472 Turkish selectees automatically cannot make it. If every Russian selectee passes an interview, 1044 cannot make it. If you add those up and subtract the number from 140,000, it becomes about 125,000.

 

[Britsimon]

If I remember right, the winning notification says approx. 125,000 were registered.
It is just my guess, but 125,000 may be from 140000-13877. 13877 is the number of sum of selectees above 3500 in countries which have more than 3500 selectees (7% of 50000).
For example, if every single Turkish selectee passes an interview, 472 Turkish selectees automatically cannot make it. If every Russian selectee passes an interview, 1044 cannot make it. If you add those up and subtract the number from 140,000, it becomes about 125,000.

I love the guess logic, and appreciate the effort you put into it, but I REALLY don't think that is the reason. Not all selectees go through the whole process so the 3500 is rarely hit (I'm sure someone has stats on that but I would be very surprised if it happened more than a VERY few times).

 

[raevsky]

Another example of guess logic.
Let's assume DOS wants some kind of insurance against the thing that happened in DV-12. A new draw from scratch. How many winners will they need?
In DV-12 they had 100021 winners, and issued 34463 visas.
How many winners do they need to issue 50000 nevertheless?
100021*50000/34463 = 145114. If they had 145K, I would connect those two things. However, they have only 140659.

Of course, when they split it into regions and recalculate regional quotas, the things could change slightly.

 

[raevsky]

Results for max open number for DV-13 are ready. Prospects for the corridor for max number invited for interview in DV-14 are clear too.
AF 97,000 - 116,400. We have seen wins up to 116,xxx, they are within the corridor and have a chance.
AS 10,700 - 12,800. We have seen wins up to 26,xxx. Unfortunately, at least 51% of those winners will not be invited to the interview (above 12,800).
EU 32,000 - 38,500. We have seen wins up to 54,000. Unfortunately, at least 29% of those winners will not be invited to the interview (above 38,500).
NA 2 - 25. Difficult to predict because of high volatility.
OC 1,640 - 1,970. We have seen wins up to 2,9xx. Unfortunately, at least 32% of those winners will not be invited to the interview (above 1,970).
SA 1,300 - 1,580. We have seen wins up to 2,xxx. Unfortunately, at least 21% of those winners will not be invited to the interview (above 1,580).

If we have seen up to 26xxx numbers for AS in dv-14, the max number invited for interview should be 16045 * 27000/23270 ~ 18600. If 23270 winners are spread out until number 27000, in order to get 16045 winners (as in DV-13 to fill the quota) we need to reach 27000/23270*16045.
If the max number is more than 27000, the passing rank number will be higher.

Similarly, for OC passing number should be around 2900/4215*2190 ~ 1500.
For SA between 2000/4620*2206 ~ 955 and 3000/4620*2206 ~ 1450

For AF without gang of 4 it would be 117000*30832/40480 = 90000.
For EU without gang of 2 it would be 54000*21563/35565 = 33000.

 

[SusieQQQ]

They are saying there are 4620 SA winners and 4215 OC winners. That means the numbers should be at least that high. But we have not seen numbers more than 2,9xx for OC and more than 2xxx for SA.

Numbers are less than winners because winners includes derivatives, who are on same case number as primary applicant.

 

[raevsky]

Yeap.

 

[Kayend]

If we have seen up to 26xxx numbers for AS in dv-14, the max number invited for interview should be 16045 * 27000/23270 ~ 18600. If 23270 winners are spread out until number 27000, in order to get 16045 winners (as in DV-13 to fill the quota) we need to reach 27000/23270*16045.
If the max number is more than 27000, the passing rank number will be higher.

Similarly, for OC passing number should be around 2900/4215*2190 ~ 1500.
For SA between 2000/4620*2206 ~ 955 and 3000/4620*2206 ~ 1450

For AF without gang of 4 it would be 117000*30832/40480 = 90000.
For EU without gang of 2 it would be 54000*21563/35565 = 33000.

You mean Asia with up to 18k having high chances of getting interview? If yes, what make you change your prediction for Asia.

 

[raevsky]

I envisioned the results to be different. I expected total amount of winners (open plus hidden) to stay the same, and just I thought DOS would open all numbers.
What happened is they increased the published amounts (that I thought would be total). That is not what I expected because I think it is rather high already.

Because they increased those amounts, I started doubting the hidden numbers at all. If there are no hidden numbers, the number of winners should be with dependents.
The only thing that has a problem is that we have those strange results for Albania in 2003, Eritrea in 2001 and several others, that need an explanation.

Anyway, if all numbers are open then I calculate max passing number in a different way. I need to achieve about the same amount of winners below that passing number as we had in DV-13.
Then AS region has more luck.

 

[Kayend]

I envisioned the results to be different. I expected total amount of winners (open plus hidden) to stay the same, and just I thought DOS would open all numbers.
What happened is they increased the published amounts (that I thought would be total). That is not what I expected because I think it is rather high already.

Because they increased those amounts, I started doubting the hidden numbers at all. If there are no hidden numbers, the number of winners should be with dependents.
The only thing that has a problem is that we have those strange results for Albania in 2003, Eritrea in 2001 and several others, that need an explanation.

Anyway, if all numbers are open then I calculate max passing number in a different way. I need to achieve about the same amount of winners below that passing number as we had in DV-13.
Then AS region has more luck.

Yup, this make complete sense to me.

 

[scusyxx]

raevsky,

For AS region. How 16045 winners fit into 10682 slots? The highest CN for AS last year was 10682. Or are they the only ones who are invited to interview?

If we have seen up to 26xxx numbers for AS in dv-14, the max number invited for interview should be 16045 * 27000/23270 ~ 18600. If 23270 winners are spread out until number 27000, in order to get 16045 winners (as in DV-13 to fill the quota) we need to reach 27000/23270*16045.
If the max number is more than 27000, the passing rank number will be higher.

Similarly, for OC passing number should be around 2900/4215*2190 ~ 1500.
For SA between 2000/4620*2206 ~ 955 and 3000/4620*2206 ~ 1450

For AF without gang of 4 it would be 117000*30832/40480 = 90000.
For EU without gang of 2 it would be 54000*21563/35565 = 33000.

 

[raevsky]

For AS region. How 16045 winners fit into 10682 slots? The highest CN for AS last year was 10682. Or are they the only ones who are invited to interview?

16045 are with family members. That is about 9100 entries. The rest 1600 are holes. 15% are holes.
In DV-14 they have about 23270 winners and about 27000 slots. About the same 15% are holes.

It raises questions because of several examples where the number of visas given was higher than the number of winners. That is normal when winners do not include family members and not very normal when they do include them.

 

[raevsky]

I was able to resolve some of those questions and have a way how others could be solved. But winners do not include family members and include hidden winner, we have a big question why they increased that number. It was not necessary to increase the number of hidden winners.

 

[Sloner]

Another example of guess logic.
Let's assume DOS wants some kind of insurance against the thing that happened in DV-12. A new draw from scratch. How many winners will they need?
In DV-12 they had 100021 winners, and issued 34463 visas.
How many winners do they need to issue 50000 nevertheless?
100021*50000/34463 = 145114. If they had 145K, I would connect those two things. However, they have only 140659.

laid out my theory. This is what it says)))
I'm a little mistake on the numbers first, but you just calculated. KCC reinsured and left 5000-10000 the October newsletter. It's simple.

 

[Kayend]

16045 are with family members. That is about 9100 entries. The rest 1600 are holes. 15% are holes.
In DV-14 they have about 23270 winners and about 27000 slots. About the same 15% are holes.

It raises questions because of several examples where the number of visas given was higher than the number of winners. That is normal when winners do not include family members and not very normal when they do include them.

When the number of visas issued is higher than the number of winners, the visas issued are based on consulate posts (the place they take their interview) or foreign chargeability? The numbers of winners are definitely based on foreign chargeability. If the number of visas issued are based on consulate post then the differences could be other foreign chargeability. For example, in DV13 Malaysia even have foreign chargeability from Africa and Europe. So, different Asia countries could take their interview in Malaysia.

 

[raevsky]

laid out my theory. This is what it says)))
I'm a little mistake on the numbers first, but you just calculated. KCC reinsured and left 5000-10000 the October newsletter. It's simple.

Yes, the credits are to Sloner.
Another difference between 145K and 140K could be due to the fact that region's quotas are changing from year to year.
This type of calculation needs to be done for each region separately and then results need to be summed up. Because quotas are changing, 145K in DV-12 could transfer to 140K in DV-14.

 

[Sloner]

For EU without gang of 2 it would be 54000*21563/35565 = 33000.

carefully consider, 54000 it with Uzbekistan and Ukraine, as you take them without. The calculations are wrong.

Yes, the credits are to Sloner.
Another difference between 145K and 140K could be due to the fact that region's quotas are changing from year to year.
This type of calculation needs to be done for each region separately and then results need to be summed up. Because quotas are changing, 145K in DV-12 could transfer to 140K in DV-14.

perhaps, this figure is very volatile, especially last 2 years.

 

[raevsky]

When the number of visas issued is higher than the number of winners, the visas issued are based on consulate posts (the place they take their interview) or foreign chargeability? The numbers of winners are definitely based on foreign chargeability. If the number of visas issued are based on consulate post then the differences could be other foreign chargeability. For example, in DV13 Malaysia even have foreign chargeability from Africa and Europe. So, different Asia countries could take their interview in Malaysia.

I attach a table with those cases. Here it is https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B2bWzexdyvIlM2xzTjlfckZfME0/edit

It has several sources combined together.
1. Winners published. That is the number of winners from official publications like http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_6050.html I believe that is from the question on the electronic entry about the country of chargeability (or if it the same as country of birth - country of birth)
2. Born in the country. From immigration yearbook. Like http://www.dhs.gov/yearbook-immigration-statistics-2012-legal-permanent-residents, table 10, "Persons Obtaining Legal Permanent Resident Status by Broad Class of Admission and Region and Country of Birth". As far as I understand, this is true country of birth of an immigrant. Not the country he or she was charged to or was chargeable to. Family members could all have their true country of birth each. This corresponds to the date of entry into US (not the date when the visa was issued), so there is overlapping of time periods. A person who got a visa in DV-N program, could enter US in the year N + 1
3. Country of last permanent residence. Like http://www.dhs.gov/yearbook-immigration-statistics-2012-legal-permanent-residents, table 11, "Persons Obtaining Legal Permanent Resident Status by Broad Class of Admission and Region and Country of Last Residence". This corresponds to the date of entry into US (not the date when the visa was issued), so there is overlapping of time periods. A person who got a visa in DV-N program, could enter US in the year N + 1
4. Table like this http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY12AnnualReport-TableVII.pdf . This is to the country the visa number was actually charged (not the place of residence, not the place of birth - could be charged to spouse's country). "Immigrant Number Use for Visa Issuances and Adjustments of Status in the Diversity Immigrant Category"
5. For 2013 from CEAC data (per consulate, what usually means the place of last permanent residence).

Situation with 2013 Greece, Malaysia, Qatar and Singapore is explained by immigration yearbook tables. Much more immigrants live in the country than were born in it.
Macedonia is different, but the excess is small - 280 versus 262, that is 7% excess. Could be true marriages before immigrating.

Greece 2007-2009. Explanation could be different. There are a lot of greek residents not born in Greece. But the number of visas is for those who are charged to Greece. That could be because greek residents (not born in Greece) marry spouse
born in greece and change chargeability to Greece. That is why the excess is much higher (55 over 41 is 34% excess, but it is created by marriage of those winners who were not born in Greece, and there are a lot of them there

Albania 2003. The excess is very low - 1915 over 1898 - less than 1%. Possible true marriages.

Eritrea 2001. Could be an error is DOS tables (number 311 - visas issued). It contradicts to USCIS tables from immigration yearbook. Number 68 from immigration yearbook is much lower than number 311 from DOS tables. I question number 311 - that could be a mistake. Actually, I do not understand how number 311 could be achieved if it were not a mistake.

 

[raevsky]

carefully consider, 54000 it with Uzbekistan and Ukraine, as you take them without. The calculations are wrong.

54000 is the max number for winners from Europe without gang of two. If we assume the number of visas for Ukraine and Uzbekistan is about the same in DV-13 and DV-14 (by artificially cutting those countries). They could be not the same, but probably they are.

 

[Sloner]

54000 is the max number for winners from Europe without gang of two. If we assume the number of visas for Ukraine and Uzbekistan is about the same in DV-13 and DV-14 (by artificially cutting those countries). They could be not the same, but probably they are.

you did not understand me. let CN 54000, though max CN 60000. So it's the same with Ukraine and Uzbekistan, you must subtract it from the number.DV14 at how many of those numbers, nobody knows. You did these two countries are included in this number.

 

[raevsky]

you did not understand me. let CN 54000, though max CN 60000. So it's the same with Ukraine and Uzbekistan, you must subtract it from the number.DV14 at how many of those numbers, nobody knows. You did these two countries are included in this number.

It is already subtracted from the other numbers - 21563 (instead of 33088) and 35565 (instead of 46588). But 54000 is the correct one, is is the max number that is not affected by Uzbekistan or Ukraine.