Did I miss something? What form is that I-485 for and why would we need to send anything in advance of the interview?
Dv 2014 european winers here
- Thread starter ceskhermina
- Start date
Did I miss something? What form is that I-485 for and why would we need to send anything in advance of the interview?
Britsimon
Super Moderator
The I-485 relates to adjustment of status (aos) cases where the applicant is already in the USA on another visa. If you are outside the US and will do your interview at an embassy/consulate (CConsular Processing - CP) then you do not fill in a I-485.
I have Been Selected 2014 and my case #EU36XXX Should I apply for 2015 dv lottery or not?I was thinking If my number not become current at least won t missed 2015 lottery .Also I live In usa and I have E2 visa But I like to have interview in my country can I make adjust of status in consular of my country or AOS is only who lives in USA???
What is your recommendation ?Thank you for answering
What is your recommendation ?Thank you for answering
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franko
Well-Known Member
AOS takes place in the US and CP in your home country or country of residence.
Considering your high CN ----->36k I would go for consular processing in the country of your origin. AOS takes more time and if your number gets current (if it does at all) it won't be before August-September 2014 so you might miss the Sept 30 deadline. CP takes few days - I know it is associated with a flight (maybe even flights) back home but it is much more straight forward than AOS and safer in my opinion.
There is nothing stopping you from taking part in DV2015. It is good to have a back up plan.
Marchie
New Member
What does CURRENT mean?
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Current means below the cutoff number announced in the monthly bulletin - so therefore eligible for an interview. Until our numbers are current we don't get interviewed.
Marchie
New Member
4849245
Well if in July they reach 30000 and August is Current, does that mean we will have our interview in August?
EU00033***
Well if in July they reach 30000 and August is Current, does that mean we will have our interview in August?
EU00033***
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Kind of yes. When the visa bulletin shows CURRENT for a region it means they believe there are enough remaining visas to meet the demand from the remaining selectees that have submitted forms. So - they announce that region is CURRENT and all selectees in that region should then get interview dates.
It is possible that one region goes current and another doesn't. It is also possible that a region never goes current (so numbers above the cutoff wouldn't then get an interview). That latter scenario is what I believe will happen this year in some regions.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
I think there is a word missing from your sentence. Are you saying all regions will be current except Asia? So you believe that EU numbers up to the 59k will get interviewed? That is quite optimistic - so you are probably the most optimistic pundit - apart from those that insist "all winners will get interviews" because they don't understand the system.
franko
Well-Known Member
Common sens, common sense Sloner. I think that DV2014 is different and I do sincerely hope that this year loads more numbers will be processed than in DV2013 but I do not belive that KCC and embassies have the manpower to physically process more than 40-45k CNs for Europe, maybe even less. Unless you know something that we don't
More holes, more fraud, more...I don't know what ? What is your secret Sloner? How come you are so positive about everyone getting their interview ?
Sloner
Active Member
I do not like how things are numbers in Asia. I expected them to go faster.I have said many times, the main reason for this change of quotas and run new software. You gave yourself the way forecast of 45,000. That's right, this number will be held in July.
britsimon, three of my prediction has come true for Europe, October, November, December. How much should be coincidence that I believe in them?
and so they are around all the time sitting. Current has been since July. I used to wonder why they sit around 3 months?
read here, there are all my calculations. http://greencard.by/community/forum/forum33/topic5338/?PAGEN_1=8
then everything just DV13 33,000 winners 31,000 numbers. DV14 46000 winners 60000 numbers.
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Britsimon
Super Moderator
Sloner, I read your theory and to be able to reference it I am posting it below (in google translated English - but the main points came through OK).
What you have done is calculated the selectee/visa ratio from various years as it suited you, calculated what that would mean to DV2014 winners and combined the lot together. Then you congratulate yourself when the combined number comes in lower than 50k.
However, there is a MASSIVE error in your calculations - you have based the whole theory on DV2012 visa results!!! You must know of the chaos that occurred in 2012 so you cannot base anything on that. Your calculations show that Africa region would only get 16k visas, when in actual fact it has been getting around 22 to 24k visas for years. The quotas do shift from year to year but I can't believe AF region would be so badly impacted.
"Here's my calculation by region. According to this theory, the DV2014 was launched in the software that was used in July 2011 to DV12.
Africa - 50,000 winnings 13582 visas were issued. Count how many visas will be issued in 2014, 61943 * 13582/50000 = 16826 visas. This quota was in 2004.
Europe - wins on 31001 13093 visas were issued. We believe 46588 * 13093/31001 = 19676 visa. This quota was in 2003, 2004,2005.
Asia - to 15002 wins 6481 visas were issued. We believe 23270 * 6481/15002 = 10052 visa. Close to such a quota was 2011.
I wondered, where did Oceania and South America, a large number of winners. It turns out to be completed by the end of the global quota.
Oceania - wins for 2001 issued 562 visas. We think 4215 * 562/2001 = 1,183 visas. The closest to such a quota was 2006.
South America, for 2002 wins were issued 742 visas. We think 4620 * 742/2002 = 1,712 visas. This quota was in 2007, even before it came out in 2000.
summarize: 16826 19676 10052 1183 1712 +10 = 49459. It all fits.
These quotas have been in the lottery's history, is simply to take a look at this table http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY12A...bleVII.pdf
Nothing extraordinary here. In my opinion why it happened, it's many failures, fraudulent claims and debris in Africa. It should even look at DV2013, because the numbers going through the roof and reach 95hhh. As for the forecast for Europe, and other regions. Processing will be added at the consuls until September. Large rooms, 50hhh for example, you have all the chances to get an interview. But on one condition, if it were not many who want to continue to do. The risk is, not without it, as the limit for this regional quota may be exhausted before. But I think it will not happen. The main feature of the October dorassylka may be, if it is, it turns out that wanting less than planned and the chances will increase significantly."
Sloner
Active Member
quotas may vary. Chaos was May 1, 2011. July 15, 2011 everything was fine. I think either the State Department did not expect such a good performance from the program, or he left for 22000 mistakenly place winners.
Now the fun))) I watched cut-off DV12 and DV14. Here's what happened, Africa - exactly or -500-700. Oceania -125, and for the third month in a row, is not difficult to guess what will happen in January. South America is running a month ahead than DV12. Asia is very difficult to compare, since then played Bangladesh with 90% of fraudulent claims.
Based on this, I made a prediction for January: Africa 23700-24500, 15000-15500 Europe, Oceania, 500-540, 750-800 South America. Let's wait a bit and check it out. Even interesting to me.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Sloner. You are basing your theories on bad data. So your early cutoff predictions may be right (because it is easy at this point), but you have a huge misunderstanding which you don't seem to recognise.
In DV2012 the first set of winners were published then redrawn later. Because of poor communications there were lots of people (particularly in Africa I would imagine) that never heard they were winners in the second draw, or heard too late. So, the number of visas issued in AF region was just over half what they normally would have expected. Because of that, your understanding of all regions is flawed, so when you are telling people that all will be fine it is based on your misunderstanding and big mistake.
Kayend
Active Member
Sloner, I just have a simple question for you regarding your prediction. What is the relationship between the software used that do selection and the # of visa issued for each region?
Whatever software used it just to pick the selectees from the regional pool and that is the only purpose of the software. How many visa issue by each region is driven by a lot of factors like the take up rate for the region for that year, the economy for that region compare to US, the political development on certain country and a lot of others that might make the selectees to opt-in or out but one thing for sure is that all the factors we are talking about has nothing to do with the software used. If I am not mistaken, your prediction is saying because of the software used (DV12 software) therefore the visa issued ratio should be the same as DV12. If the software has no relationship at all to the visa issue ratio, I think this prediction is not right.
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Britsimon
Super Moderator
I think when Sloner says software he ultimately means regional quotas. There is another word he misuses "rooms" but I can't figure out what that translates to. However, all his predictions, calculations and theories are based on DV2012, so his predictions above are just DV2012 ranges. Bloody ridiculous. No doubt Sloner believes every region will be current for June onwards as it was in DV2012 - the only year that has ever happened (and only because of the redraw).