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Dv 2014 european winers here

kayend said:
I 1000% agreed with Britsimon. You are extra lucky. Congratulation to you Fanarin. I wish I just found out that I got selected yesterday. :) Waiting is killing man. Welcome to our waiting club.
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Thank you for your kind words kayend, lets say i have shared your torture waiting pain in the past :)
 
fanarin said:
Thank you for your kind words kayend, lets say i have shared your torture waiting pain in the past :)
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One thing Fanarin, when you send the forms to KCC it takes them a couple of months to "process" the forms. Your case number will probably be current around February or March so they might be ready with the forms by then, BUT you might get held up a couple of weeks waiting for their processing to finish. So yeah - you do have a bit of torture ahead of you!
 
britsimon said:
One thing Fanarin, when you send the forms to KCC it takes them a couple of months to "process" the forms. Your case number will probably be current around February or March so they might be ready with the forms by then, BUT you might get held up a couple of weeks waiting for their processing to finish. So yeah - you do have a bit of torture ahead of you!
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We call, "On the road to victory, suffering is nothing." :)

Thank you so much for your help btw.
 
Thank you for your inquiry.

Your forms have been received and pending further embassy review for the continuation of your visa processing. KCC is currently scheduling visa numbers for your region for the month of December. Please refer to the visa bulletin at www.travel.state.gov to locate the current numbers being processed. This bulletin is updated after the 15th day of each month.

Interviews for the DV 2014 program will begin in October 2013 and conclude on September 30, 2014. KCC cannot provide information as to when an interview date may become available for your case. Appointments are scheduled numerically according to assigned case numbers. The Department of State designates how many interviews will be scheduled each month according to visa availability. After August 15, 2013, you may refer to the visa bulletin at www.travel.state.gov for the list of current numbers being processed. This information is updated on the 15th day of each month thereafter.
 
Sloner. You are basing your theories on bad data. So your early cutoff predictions may be right (because it is easy at this point), but you have a huge misunderstanding which you don't seem to recognise.
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Well, I predict? predicted the number of units in Europe in December.
In DV2012 the first set of winners were published then redrawn later. Because of poor communications there were lots of people (particularly in Africa I would imagine) that never heard they were winners in the second draw, or heard too late. So, the number of visas issued in AF region was just over half what they normally would have expected. Because of that, your understanding of all regions is flawed, so when you are telling people that all will be fine it is based on your misunderstanding and big mistake.
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I do not believe it. We have absolutely no evidence of how many people watched the wining page.
Sloner, I just have a simple question for you regarding your prediction. What is the relationship between the software used that do selection and the # of visa issued for each region?
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2003 - Launch of new software. Rooms in Europe and in other countries through the roof. 2007 - Launch of updates, numbers going through the roof, too.
No one still can not explain why a lot of big numbers. I explained. How do you think? Why in the 4000 Oceania winners?
I think when Sloner says software he ultimately means regional quotas. There is another word he misuses "rooms" but I can't figure out what that translates to. However, all his predictions, calculations and theories are based on DV2012, so his predictions above are just DV2012 ranges. Bloody ridiculous. No doubt Sloner believes every region will be current for June onwards as it was in DV2012 - the only year that has ever happened (and only because of the redraw).
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you do not understand me. Current region will be in September. In June this DV12 current in DV14 39000-43000. Something like this.

I see no other explanation for why, in Europe, with 46 thousand won, 60,000 CN. If someone gives another explanation, please. So far no one has given no explanation.
 
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Sloner said:
I do not believe it. We have absolutely no evidence of how many people watched the wining page.

I see no other explanation for why, in Europe, with 46 thousand won, 60,000 CN. If someone gives another explanation, please. So far no one has given no explanation.
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Sloner, there is plenty of information around about how bad the DV2012 fiasco was. If you check the numbers of visa issued you will see that DV 2012 only had 34,000 visas issued - whereas the previous years were around 50k. Are you seriously trying to say that was NOT to do with the redraw????

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY12AnnualReport-TableVII.pdf

If you are so confident of your numbers why not do the whole exercise with DV2011? It should be the same - right???? The thing is - it won't be.

To your last point, the reason for the case numbers being higher than selected winners is the holes (from disqualified entries) - again, a very well understood and accepted explanation.
 
new software introduced in 2012, but not in 2011. So for all of these visas issued and construction and convergent.
 
Sloner said:
new software introduced in 2012, but not in 2011. So for all of these visas issued and construction and convergent.
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OK - what new software are you talking about?? They did use new software for the selection process - and that is why the first draw got cancelled - someone left in some code that was only supposed to be used during testing. The second draw in DV2012 and of course DV2013 process use this new software. So ok - perform your analysis on DV2013 numbers. The data is available here
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...VWWnJoV1BZSTF0R0JGeVRSTFE&usp=drive_web#gid=7

The numbers aren't complete, but even for the results included it shows AF got 21k and EU 14.5. So that pretty much destroys your theory.

Sloner, take a breath and think about. You are wrong, I am certain, but the reason I am pursuing the point is because you speak with great conviction and then advise people various things based on your incorrect analysis. Given that the proof you are wrong is staring you in the face, that is cruel and wrong.
 
Sloner said:
new software introduced in 2012, but not in 2011. So for all of these visas issued and construction and convergent.
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Software needs input and that it called data. The applications to DV is data. The randomizer in the software produce different result even with the same data set. Moreover, every year having a different data set. So, same software with same or different data set can never produce the same result. Period.
 
KCC just make everything so hard by not having a clear system that makes it obvious who is going to have a chance to get a green card. It seems no one really knows, though there are plenty of theories, some think only numbers up to the 30's will be current, others the 40s, and some say all current (which I would need as im in the 50s)....and there will be no way to know until the number comes up (if it does)....
 
OK - what new software are you talking about?? They did use new software for the selection process - and that is why the first draw got cancelled - someone left in some code that was only supposed to be used during testing. The second draw in DV2012 and of course DV2013 process use this new software. So ok - perform your analysis on DV2013 numbers. The data is available here
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...rive_web#gid=7
The numbers aren't complete, but even for the results included it shows AF got 21k and EU 14.5. So that pretty much destroys your theory.
Sloner, take a breath and think about. You are wrong, I am certain, but the reason I am pursuing the point is because you speak with great conviction and then advise people various things based on your incorrect analysis. Given that the proof you are wrong is staring you in the face, that is cruel and wrong.
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:D you are not the first who says it. you are not the first who says it. 1) Like I said, there was a trial, it ended in June 2012. Perhaps because of this. 2) that they were doing something with the software, or have modified, or did not dare to apply again.
Explain to me why there was dorassylka in October of 2012 and why Africa has 96,000 rooms in DV13?
I do all the calculations converge, first won, and then issued a visa. 2 matching is not an accident. You do not convince you, because you yourself can not do anything to explain and understand. Show me the error in calculation or an alternative to these calculations.
Well, the data for dV2013 are out, so how does your calculation fare with those?
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DV13 was held on the old equipment.

read an article about Ukraine http://oig.state.gov/documents/organization/216083.pdf
 
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Buffon said:
KCC just make everything so hard by not having a clear system that makes it obvious who is going to have a chance to get a green card. It seems no one really knows, though there are plenty of theories, some think only numbers up to the 30's will be current, others the 40s, and some say all current (which I would need as im in the 50s)....and there will be no way to know until the number comes up (if it does)....
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They can't possibly have "a clear system" when they don't know how many people will follow up on their initial selection or how many of those will eventually qualify.

Sloner said:
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DV13 was held on the old equipment.
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Why? Why would they do DV2012 on one system, the following year on an old one, and then back to DV2012 method for this year? How does that make sense? Also, can you give us a link to an official document to support your contention that this is how they are doing it?
 
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Buffon said:
KCC just make everything so hard by not having a clear system that makes it obvious who is going to have a chance to get a green card. It seems no one really knows, though there are plenty of theories, some think only numbers up to the 30's will be current, others the 40s, and some say all current (which I would need as im in the 50s)....and there will be no way to know until the number comes up (if it does)....
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How would KCC be able to say anything about how things will turn out?

The most important factors, the response rate of the selectees (what portion will proceed with the application) and the success rate, are just as much unknown to KCC.
 
Why? Why would they do DV2012 on one system, the following year on an old one, and then back to DV2012 method for this year? How does that make sense? Also, can you give us a link to an official document to support your contention that this is how they are doing it?
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In 2011 one department did not know about this within the KCC program. Do you want me to do something brought it all inside kitchen RCC not to the public.
 
Sloner said:
:D you are not the first who says it. you are not the first who says it. 1) Like I said, there was a trial, it ended in June 2012. Perhaps because of this. 2) that they were doing something with the software, or have modified, or did not dare to apply again.
Explain to me why there was dorassylka in October of 2012 and why Africa has 96,000 rooms in DV13?
I do all the calculations converge, first won, and then issued a visa. 2 matching is not an accident. You do not convince you, because you yourself can not do anything to explain and understand. Show me the error in calculation or an alternative to these calculations.

DV13 was held on the old equipment.

read an article about Ukraine http://oig.state.gov/documents/organization/216083.pdf
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OK I'll show you the error in your calculations based on the CEAC data for DV2013. The CEAC data is not (I believe complete, so the numbers are actually a little higher than I will state, but it is already enough to demonstrate your theory is incorrect.

For Africa, your theory says this:-
"Africa - 50,000 winnings 13582 visas were issued. Count how many visas will be issued in 2014, 61943 * 13582/50000 = 16826 visas."

The 13582 is the number of AF visas issued in DV2012. The 50000 is the number of AF winners (approximately). You use that to get a ratio of visas to winners and come up with 0.27. You multiply that by the selectees in 2014 and announce there will be 16826 visa issued. You do that for each region and announce there are plenty of visas to go around!

However, in DV2013 there were 52000 AF winners. So you should be able to apply your formula like this 52000 * 13582/50000 = 14125 visas. Unfortunately the CEAC data shows there have been at least 20900 visas issued to AF. That means your number is out by a HUGE margin.

When you apply the formula based on DV2013 numbers to DV2014 winners the formula looks like this - 61943 * 20900/52000 = 24919. That is more than 8000 visa more than your estimate. Once you do that in each region the 50k limit gets blown. Inactual fact these numbers are more optimistic than reality - but as I said this is plenty to prove your logic is horribly wrong.

What you need to understand is DV2012 is not a good model. The software has NOTHING to do with how many people respond after selection so regardless of whether they used it in 2012, 2013 or 2014 it only affects the selection. Once we can see the selection, the software is irrelevant.

Do you get it now???
 
Sloner said:
In 2011 one department did not know about this within the KCC program. Do you want me to do something brought it all inside kitchen RCC not to the public.
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I see. So we're all just supposed to believe you have inside access to KCC workings?
 
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