Dv 2014 european winers here

[Kayend]

I think when Sloner says software he ultimately means regional quotas. There is another word he misuses "rooms" but I can't figure out what that translates to. However, all his predictions, calculations and theories are based on DV2012, so his predictions above are just DV2012 ranges. Bloody ridiculous. No doubt Sloner believes every region will be current for June onwards as it was in DV2012 - the only year that has ever happened (and only because of the redraw).

Regional quota do not drive the visa issue ratio regardless of which year's software it used. Moreover, the regional quota for DV14 already out. Just look at the Sept VB, it has the complete breakdown for country. Just with that information, no way we can prediction what is going to happen.

 

[Britsimon]

Regional quota do not drive the visa issue ratio regardless of which year's software it used. Moreover, the regional quota for DV14 already out. Just look at the Sept VB, it has the complete breakdown for country. Just with that information, no way we can prediction what is going to happen.

I'm not arguing FOR his prediction Kayend - his prediction is nonsense.

However, I have to disagree somewhat about the regional quota being already published. What is published is the selectees count and if we wanted we could get a ratio of selectees per region. However, the numbers from each region are not equal - i.e. 10,000 winners from AF region would not yield the same number as 10,000 winners from EU region. The response rate, the success/fail rate, the AP rate and the derivative rate will all cause variations.

The regional quota is calculated for each year and is not published. It is a target for each region so they might previously have targetted 24k visas for AF, 16k for EU and so on. Based on that they know roughly how many selectees they will need per region and can alter the selectees from a region accordingly (based on their experience with the variables I mentioned above). They can also use the region cutoffs to alter the progress between the region to influence the final split between the regions. I am starting to suspect that there is push toward higher EU numbers, probably at the "expense" of AF region. So I think we could see something like AF/EU at 22/18 rather than the previous 24/16 ratio. Sloner is predicting 17/20 - which is not credible at all.

 

[Kayend]

I'm not arguing FOR his prediction Kayend - his prediction is nonsense.

However, I have to disagree somewhat about the regional quota being already published. What is published is the selectees count and if we wanted we could get a ratio of selectees per region. However, the numbers from each region are not equal - i.e. 10,000 winners from AF region would not yield the same number as 10,000 winners from EU region. The response rate, the success/fail rate, the AP rate and the derivative rate will all cause variations.

The regional quota is calculated for each year and is not published. It is a target for each region so they might previously have targetted 24k visas for AF, 16k for EU and so on. Based on that they know roughly how many selectees they will need per region and can alter the selectees from a region accordingly (based on their experience with the variables I mentioned above). They can also use the region cutoffs to alter the progress between the region to influence the final split between the regions. I am starting to suspect that there is push toward higher EU numbers, probably at the "expense" of AF region. So I think we could see something like AF/EU at 22/18 rather than the previous 24/16 ratio. Sloner is predicting 17/20 - which is not credible at all.

Yes, I agreed with you. What I am saying is that the number of selectees for each region has some relationship with the regional quota. It have to based on some kind of quota to know when it should stop selecting new selectee from the regional pool. For example, Africa usually get 50% of the visa issued and in dv14 it only selected 43.5%. You see each region will compete against each other on the 50k global visa, but each month they need to allocate visa by region so if not enough visa available then I think some kind of adjustment will happen with the assumption of AP not withholding visa and usually Asia and Africa will greatly impacted by AP cases.

 

[Kayend]

Yes, I agreed with you. What I am saying is that the number of selectees for each region has some relationship with the regional quota. It have to based on some kind of quota to know when it should stop selecting new selectee from the regional pool. For example, Africa usually get 50% of the visa issued and in dv14 it only selected 43.5%. You see each region will compete against each other on the 50k global visa, but each month they need to allocate visa by region so if not enough visa available then I think some kind of adjustment will happen with the assumption of AP not withholding visa and usually Asia and Africa will greatly impacted by AP cases.

One reason why I think the selection is not done on a global pool is because of the number of selectees. It supposed to be target for 125k but ended up 140k. So the 15k might be some excess from each region.

 

[fanarin]

One reason why I think the selection is not done on a global pool is because of the number of selectees. It supposed to be target for 125k but ended up 140k. So the 15k might be some excess from each region.

Hi everyone

Please dont laugh, i have found out i am one of selected entrants 2 days ago.

And today, filed all dv forms with Fed Ex Priority.

2014EU00022xxx

Am i too late ?

 

[c1984]

Hi everyone

Please dont laugh, i have found out i am one of selected entrants 2 days ago.

And today, filed all dv forms with Fed Ex Priority.

2014EU00022xxx

Am i too late ?

No.

BTW, Congrats!

 

[scusyxx]

No, fiscal year started in October. You have time until the end of Sept 2014.

Hi everyone

Please dont laugh, i have found out i am one of selected entrants 2 days ago.

And today, filed all dv forms with Fed Ex Priority.

2014EU00022xxx

Am i too late ?

 

[fanarin]

No, fiscal year started in October. You have time until the end of Sept 2014.

No.

BTW, Congrats!

Thank you for your quick reply.

I hope i made myself clear.

I have just checked my status and found out as "You have been randomly selected for further processing in the Diversity Immigrant Visa Program for the fiscal year 2014 (October 1, 2013 to September 30, 2014)."

So i still have time, correct ?

Edit : Thank you for your good wishes, seriously.

 

[scusyxx]

Yes.. Congrats btw.

Thank you for your quick reply.

I hope i made myself clear.

I have just checked my status and found out as "You have been randomly selected for further processing in the Diversity Immigrant Visa Program for the fiscal year 2014 (October 1, 2013 to September 30, 2014)."

So i still have time, correct ?

 

[fanarin]

Yes.. Congrats btw.

Thank you dear scusyxx, you cant imagine how much you made me glad.

 

[c1984]

Thank you for your quick reply.

I hope i made myself clear.

I have just checked my status and found out as "You have been randomly selected for further processing in the Diversity Immigrant Visa Program for the fiscal year 2014 (October 1, 2013 to September 30, 2014)."

So i still have time, correct ?

Edit : Thank you for your good wishes, seriously.

Most likely you will be current around April 2014 time ("current" means you will be up to have your interview). Six weeks prior to your current date, you will receive a 2nd notification e-mail (2NL) from KCC instructing you to check your status page, where you first found out you were selected. The page will be updated to show where and when you will have your interview.

So, you are not late by any means.

 

[fanarin]

benaryyabout

Most likely you will be current around April 2014 time ("current" means you will be up to have your interview). Six weeks prior to your current date, you will receive a 2nd notification e-mail (2NL) from KCC instructing you to check your status page, where you first found out you were selected. The page will be updated to show where and when you will have your interview.

So, you are not late by any means.

Thank you so much. Then let me ask you a couple of questions, please. You seem a successful canditate.

Have you ever used "N/A" as an answer ?

What should i have written to permanent address and phone part in the US on DS-230 forms ?

We should answer all of questions, not any blanks, correct ?

Regards

 

[c1984]

Thank you so much. Then let me ask you a couple of questions, please. You seem a successful canditate.

Have you ever used "N/A" as an answer ?

What should i have written to permanent address and phone part in the US on DS-230 forms ?

We should answer all of questions, not any blanks, correct ?

Regards

Last time (and the only time) that I attentively looked at DS-230 it was in 2006. I am already in the US and the process is different for people already here. I would not need to fill DS-230.

I'm going to leave that to other people to answer. And welcome to the forum.

 

[fanarin]

Last time (and the only time) that I attentively looked at DS-230 it was in 2006. I am already in the US and the process is different for people already here. I would not need to fill DS-230.

I'm going to leave that to other people to answer. And welcome to the forum.

My deepest apologies, i have already discovered your signature.

Thank you so much even for your attention, i hope i could find some answers for my detailed questions. Its National Holiday tomorrow and my parcel still will be at the Fed Ex office.

 

[scusyxx]

Are you from Turkey?

Yes I used N/A for some fields and left some blanks (e.g. for Question 23, 29, 31b, 34). Do your best to answer all the questions, if not applicable put N/A.

I think you can write those US address fields N/A too for now and at the time of your interview you can update.

My deepest apologies, i have already discovered your signature.

Thank you so much even for your attention, i hope i could find some answers for my detailed questions. Its National Holiday tomorrow and my parcel still will be at the Fed Ex office.

 

[c1984]

My deepest apologies, i have already discovered your signature.

Thank you so much even for your attention, i hope i could find some answers for my detailed questions. Its National Holiday tomorrow and my parcel still will be at the Fed Ex office.

No need to apologize. You have stumbled upon probably the most friendly forum on the Internet I'm sure you will find all the answers you need.

BTW, you could have e-mailed your forms.

 

[Britsimon]

Hi everyone

Please dont laugh, i have found out i am one of selected entrants 2 days ago.

And today, filed all dv forms with Fed Ex Priority.

2014EU00022xxx

Am i too late ?

As others have said - not too late at all - congratulations! Also you are extra lucky that you only just found out because many of us have already spent months of torture waiting for this process to begin - and your number will be current in a couple of months - so you will move at the speed of light compared to us! Lucky you!

 

[scusyxx]

britsimon,

I have a question for you. I don't have enough savings in the bank to show but I have been working in US for 3.5 years and I have job offer pending. I have employment verification letter, three W2s, 401K, house, cars and HELOC etc. That should be OK right?
Do I need to fill Affidavit of Support for my wife? I am doing CP.

As others have said - not too late at all - congratulations! Also you are extra lucky that you only just found out because many of us have already spent months of torture waiting for this process to begin - and your number will be current in a couple of months - so you will move at the speed of light compared to us! Lucky you!

 

[Britsimon]

britsimon,

I have a question for you. I don't have enough savings in the bank to show but I have been working in US for 3.5 years and I have job offer pending. I have employment verification letter, three W2s, 401K, house, cars and HELOC etc. That should be OK right?
Do I need to fill Affidavit of Support for my wife? I am doing CP.

Yeah I'm sure that would be OK. You sound like you are not a youngster and you obviously have established yourself in the USA, so that should be more than enough to satisfy their needs. Remember the financial proof isn't a strict requirement, it is just that they cannot issue the visa in a case that they believe will end up in public charge scenario - so it is all about how the CO "feels" about you, which is largely a subjective thing - not a numerical thing.

Oh - and no you don't need an aos for your wife. It is assumed you will support her!!!

 

[Kayend]

As others have said - not too late at all - congratulations! Also you are extra lucky that you only just found out because many of us have already spent months of torture waiting for this process to begin - and your number will be current in a couple of months - so you will move at the speed of light compared to us! Lucky you!

I 1000% agreed with Britsimon. You are extra lucky. Congratulation to you Fanarin. I wish I just found out that I got selected yesterday. Waiting is killing man. Welcome to our waiting club.