I do not like how things are numbers in Asia. I expected them to go faster.I have said many times, the main reason for this change of quotas and run new software. You gave yourself the way forecast of 45,000. That's right, this number will be held in July.
britsimon, three of my prediction has come true for Europe, October, November, December. How much should be coincidence that I believe in them?
and so they are around all the time sitting. Current has been since July. I used to wonder why they sit around 3 months?
read here, there are all my calculations.
http://greencard.by/community/forum/forum33/topic5338/?PAGEN_1=8
then everything just DV13 33,000 winners 31,000 numbers. DV14 46000 winners 60000 numbers.
Sloner, I read your theory and to be able to reference it I am posting it below (in google translated English - but the main points came through OK).
What you have done is calculated the selectee/visa ratio from various years as it suited you, calculated what that would mean to DV2014 winners and combined the lot together. Then you congratulate yourself when the combined number comes in lower than 50k.
However, there is a MASSIVE error in your calculations - you have based the whole theory on DV2012 visa results!!! You must know of the chaos that occurred in 2012 so you cannot base anything on that. Your calculations show that Africa region would only get 16k visas, when in actual fact it has been getting around 22 to 24k visas for years. The quotas do shift from year to year but I can't believe AF region would be so badly impacted.
"Here's my calculation by region. According to this theory, the DV2014 was launched in the software that was used in July 2011 to DV12.
Africa - 50,000 winnings 13582 visas were issued. Count how many visas will be issued in 2014, 61943 * 13582/50000 = 16826 visas. This quota was in 2004.
Europe - wins on 31001 13093 visas were issued. We believe 46588 * 13093/31001 = 19676 visa. This quota was in 2003, 2004,2005.
Asia - to 15002 wins 6481 visas were issued. We believe 23270 * 6481/15002 = 10052 visa. Close to such a quota was 2011.
I wondered, where did Oceania and South America, a large number of winners. It turns out to be completed by the end of the global quota.
Oceania - wins for 2001 issued 562 visas. We think 4215 * 562/2001 = 1,183 visas. The closest to such a quota was 2006.
South America, for 2002 wins were issued 742 visas. We think 4620 * 742/2002 = 1,712 visas. This quota was in 2007, even before it came out in 2000.
summarize: 16826 19676 10052 1183 1712 +10 = 49459. It all fits.
These quotas have been in the lottery's history, is simply to take a look at this table
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY12A...bleVII.pdf
Nothing extraordinary here. In my opinion why it happened, it's many failures, fraudulent claims and debris in Africa. It should even look at DV2013, because the numbers going through the roof and reach 95hhh. As for the forecast for Europe, and other regions. Processing will be added at the consuls until September. Large rooms, 50hhh for example, you have all the chances to get an interview. But on one condition, if it were not many who want to continue to do. The risk is, not without it, as the limit for this regional quota may be exhausted before. But I think it will not happen. The main feature of the October dorassylka may be, if it is, it turns out that wanting less than planned and the chances will increase significantly."