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OC DV lottery 2024

Spam420 said:
Hi everyone,

I am still planning my trip to the US, got to be there before October 2nd. Has anyone got advise on how late I can arrive before it gets too risky? Is a week before expiry safe or should I leave a month before expiry.

I currently plan to only go on a 3-4 week trip to activate my permanent residency along with apply for a re-entry permit. How do you even establish residence in a location? I want to establish in Texas (no state income tax) but my mailing address is to family in Santa Clara, California (too expensive for me to live, I will just visit and pick up my gc and ssn). I don't know anyone in Texas. Will my residence start in California due to my mailing address being there or if I arrive in Dallas will it start there? I already paid the green card fee.
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The riskiness of when you arrive is largely dependent on what might go wrong with flights etc and how easy it would be to reschedule if necessary. A week is probably fine.

You generally can’t establish state residency without actually living somewhere. The general way you would prove residency in a state is to have your drivers license registered there, which of course itself will require certain proofs of residency. These are the ones for Texas. https://www.dps.texas.gov/section/d...ency-requirement-driver-licenses-and-id-cards
 
Thanks @SusieQQQ, much appreciated for the prompt response

So, for the duration of my arrival to when I can organize place to live, job, etc I would not actually be a resident of any state and that is okay? If I leave after my 3-4 weeks holiday and get a re-entry permit will that affect my future re-entry and put me at risk of abandonment? As I am not a resident of any state would I just file for federal tax return? That means I don't need to establish residency somewhere immediately, right?

The reason I want to get a re-entry permit is that my current employer in AUS is opening a permanent engineering office in Hawaii and there will be permanent jobs, but it won't be until sometime in 2024 which is a good chance it will be past the 6 months outside of country guideline. It feels like I just won the gc a bit too early and I am worried I might get abandonment before I am able to get established in the US.

To be honest I am not even sure if getting a re-entry permit with that reasoning is even valid. I really am keen to go live in the US though, it's my dream, it's just working out what to do to keep me from abandonment while waiting for the job position to mature or even deciding if I should wait or just quit and move and start from scratch.
 
Spam420 said:
Thanks @SusieQQQ, much appreciated for the prompt response

So, for the duration of my arrival to when I can organize place to live, job, etc I would not actually be a resident of any state and that is okay? If I leave after my 3-4 weeks holiday and get a re-entry permit will that affect my future re-entry and put me at risk of abandonment? As I am not a resident of any state would I just file for federal tax return? That means I don't need to establish residency somewhere immediately, right?

The reason I want to get a re-entry permit is that my current employer in AUS is opening a permanent engineering office in Hawaii and there will be permanent jobs, but it won't be until sometime in 2024 which is a good chance it will be past the 6 months outside of country guideline. It feels like I just won the gc a bit too early and I am worried I might get abandonment before I am able to get established in the US.

To be honest I am not even sure if getting a re-entry permit with that reasoning is even valid. I really am keen to go live in the US though, it's my dream, it's just working out what to do to keep me from abandonment while waiting for the job position to mature or even deciding if I should wait or just quit and move and start from scratch.
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Correct re the tax return, we spent most of our first year outside the US and only filed a federal return. We did get a state inquiry a few years later asking why we had not filed a state return for that year, we responded indicating our actual days in the state for that year and they were fine with that.

You don’t need a re-entry permit for an absence of less than a year. The 6 months matters for naturalization timelines but not maintaining your green card.
 
SusieQQQ said:
Correct re the tax return, we spent most of our first year outside the US and only filed a federal return. We did get a state inquiry a few years later asking why we had not filed a state return for that year, we responded indicating our actual days in the state for that year and they were fine with that.

You don’t need a re-entry permit for an absence of less than a year. The 6 months matters for naturalization timelines but not maintaining your green card.
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Ohh I see, thanks for letting me know. I might as well take a proper holiday then and not just enter a state for residency purposes. I think I will apply for a re-entry permit anyway, never know what might happen.

Thanks again @SusieQQQ, I really appreciated it :)

Would a valid reason for re-entry permit is waiting on pending job position? or is it better to put something like tying up loose ends before I make the move. I don't quite understand what USCIS see as a valid reason to issue a re-entry permit.
 
Spam420 said:
Ohh I see, thanks for letting me know. I might as well take a proper holiday then and not just enter a state for residency purposes. I think I will apply for a re-entry permit anyway, never know what might happen.

Thanks again @SusieQQQ, I really appreciated it :)

Would a valid reason for re-entry permit is waiting on pending job position? or is it better to put something like tying up loose ends before I make the move. I don't quite understand what USCIS see as a valid reason to issue a re-entry permit.
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I don’t think they really care much tbh. The only case I’ve ever heard of of a REP being denied was someone on an employment-sponsored green card who wanted to take up a job elsewhere… Be sure you understand that you need to remain in the US until your biometrics can be scheduled though. You can leave after that and get the REP sent to the closest consulate to you. I have no idea what the current wait time for biometrics for the permit is, in the past it has ranged from a few weeks to a few months.
 
Spam420 said:
Thanks @SusieQQQ, much appreciated for the prompt response

So, for the duration of my arrival to when I can organize place to live, job, etc I would not actually be a resident of any state and that is okay? If I leave after my 3-4 weeks holiday and get a re-entry permit will that affect my future re-entry and put me at risk of abandonment? As I am not a resident of any state would I just file for federal tax return? That means I don't need to establish residency somewhere immediately, right?

The reason I want to get a re-entry permit is that my current employer in AUS is opening a permanent engineering office in Hawaii and there will be permanent jobs, but it won't be until sometime in 2024 which is a good chance it will be past the 6 months outside of country guideline. It feels like I just won the gc a bit too early and I am worried I might get abandonment before I am able to get established in the US.

To be honest I am not even sure if getting a re-entry permit with that reasoning is even valid. I really am keen to go live in the US though, it's my dream, it's just working out what to do to keep me from abandonment while waiting for the job position to mature or even deciding if I should wait or just quit and move and start from scratch.
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Slightly off topic from green cards, but if you’re considering a move to Hawaii I would perhaps visit here as you enter the US to activate your GC.

I live in Hawaii (also from Australia) and it is a tough place to get established and very expensive, so coming and scouting first would be my recommendation.

Vacationing here is very different to living here ;-)
 
megdavidson26 said:
Wow they’ve had a busy year!

What do you mean by “blast through the regional quota”?
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By setting so many interviews they have ensured they will exceed the OC quota. That means they are taking "unused" quota from another region. The rules allow for that, and the way they have made capacity available means it's going to happen.

Auckland only took 4 cases at numbers under 2100 - so they allowed their capacity limitation to exercise the control.
 
Britsimon said:
By setting so many interviews they have ensured they will exceed the OC quota. That means they are taking "unused" quota from another region. The rules allow for that, and the way they have made capacity available means it's going to happen.

Auckland only took 4 cases at numbers under 2100 - so they allowed their capacity limitation to exercise the control.
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Thank you. Suva really worked hard for Fiji this year.

Has there ever been a time where they cap the region after they’ve gone over quota?
 
megdavidson26 said:
Thank you. Suva really worked hard for Fiji this year.

Has there ever been a time where they cap the region after they’ve gone over quota?
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They will cap an individual country at 7% of total visas, which is a hard legal limit. This has happened twice that I remember, Bangladesh (no longer in DV) and Iran. May have been a third one that I don’t recall; of course, very few countries have enough selectees that the cap would be an issue . The region quota is not a legal maximum.
 
SusieQQQ said:
They will cap an individual country at 7% of total visas, which is a hard legal limit. This has happened twice that I remember, Bangladesh (no longer in DV) and Iran. May have been a third one that I don’t recall; of course, very few countries have enough selectees that the cap would be an issue . The region quota is not a legal maximum.
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Thank you, that makes sense. Lucky OC region this year for sure.
 
Britsimon said:
By setting so many interviews they have ensured they will exceed the OC quota. That means they are taking "unused" quota from another region. The rules allow for that, and the way they have made capacity available means it's going to happen.

Auckland only took 4 cases at numbers under 2100 - so they allowed their capacity limitation to exercise the control.
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Britsimon... Your words are like music to my ears
 
Britsimon said:
By setting so many interviews they have ensured they will exceed the OC quota. That means they are taking "unused" quota from another region. The rules allow for that, and the way they have made capacity available means it's going to happen.
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It's puzzling though, cause redistribution should happen proportionally (using the region ratios from basic quota calculation). OC going way over their quota by 30-50% means that all the other major regions are not going to reach their respective limits.
 
Xarthisius said:
It's puzzling though, cause redistribution should happen proportionally (using the region ratios from basic quota calculation). OC going way over their quota by 30-50% means that all the other major regions are not going to reach their respective limits.
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I haven’t been following this closely, but isn’t Africa alone going to be hugely under quota' and it’s a large region?
 
SusieQQQ said:
I haven’t been following this closely, but isn’t Africa alone going to be hugely under quota' and it’s a large region?
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The way I understand how redistribution works is as follows:
1. Basic quota for 55k visas is roughly: 45% AF, 35% EU, 16% AS, 3% SA, 1.6% OC, 0.02% NA
2. Let's say AF cannot utilize 2k visas from their quota (which would be a lot). We repeat the process of quota calculation excluding AF this time. That would yield 1257 visas for EU, 577 for AS, 107 for SA, 59 for OC, 1 for NA.

In order to get OC 300-400 visas over their quota (and looks like that's what they're aiming for) there would have to be A LOT visas going elsewhere if that was just AF.
 
Xarthisius said:
The way I understand how redistribution works is as follows:
1. Basic quota for 55k visas is roughly: 45% AF, 35% EU, 16% AS, 3% SA, 1.6% OC, 0.02% NA
2. Let's say AF cannot utilize 2k visas from their quota (which would be a lot). We repeat the process of quota calculation excluding AF this time. That would yield 1257 visas for EU, 577 for AS, 107 for SA, 59 for OC, 1 for NA.

In order to get OC 300-400 visas over their quota (and looks like that's what they're aiming for) there would have to be A LOT visas going elsewhere if that was just AF.
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Ok, I thought it was simpler,” if we can’t use them here and can use them there, let’s do it”. Will be interesting to see what the final numbers for the year are. i was under the impression some of the big AF embassies like Ghana were barely doing any interviews, but that’s anecdotal not looking at the data, and I know you are very close to the data. question also, is there enough embassy capacity elsewhere to absorb the Russian and Iranian selectees? In other words is there a possible rolldown effect, where a number of the EU and AS selectees from certain countries can’t absorb what would be their share of the redistributed AF visas so it goes to OC?
 
Xarthisius said:
The way I understand how redistribution works is as follows:
1. Basic quota for 55k visas is roughly: 45% AF, 35% EU, 16% AS, 3% SA, 1.6% OC, 0.02% NA
2. Let's say AF cannot utilize 2k visas from their quota (which would be a lot). We repeat the process of quota calculation excluding AF this time. That would yield 1257 visas for EU, 577 for AS, 107 for SA, 59 for OC, 1 for NA.

In order to get OC 300-400 visas over their quota (and looks like that's what they're aiming for) there would have to be A LOT visas going elsewhere if that was just AF.
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I understand the math for proportionate redistribution but I guess their decisions were based on embassy performance don't you think. It makes more sense that way. IN 2023 OC got 200 more cases approved so we shall see how it goes this year
 
SusieQQQ said:
Ok, I thought it was simpler,” if we can’t use them here and can use them there, let’s do it”. Will be interesting to see what the final numbers for the year are. i was under the impression some of the big AF embassies like Ghana were barely doing any interviews, but that’s anecdotal not looking at the data, and I know you are very close to the data. question also, is there enough embassy capacity elsewhere to absorb the Russian and Iranian selectees? In other words is there a possible rolldown effect, where a number of the EU and AS selectees from certain countries can’t absorb what would be their share of the redistributed AF visas so it goes to OC?
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Accra has been abysmal for a long time taking 30 interviews per month. For September they exceed our expectations and invited 95 cases, but that's nowhere near the demand. They'll end up this year with 2024AF10710 as their highest CN... Similar thing is happening with Iranians and Turks in ANK. Russians are slightly better of with WRW (provided that they can get Schengen visa), but even WRW's performance was underwhelming (reached only EU27395 for September). That's why I said all the major regions are bound to miss their quotas. It gives advantage to OC and AOSers.
 
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