Vladek
Just to continue this comment from the aos thread.
You said:-
"You see what I mean now simon !
You asked me to explain the drop-out!? Its a human variable I ca trace it 100% look at this case student in USA but he missed-out about the DV process! Remember 80% of the 140k do not speak nor read english, so the second-holes will be as I said very effective..."
I think you misunderstand what I asked you to explain.
Your theory of excessive "second holes" is based on the belief that large numbers of selectees are failing to return their papers this year. We know this always happens, so we are not talking about individual cases, what you are saying that AS A GROUP the 140,000 selectees are behaving differently this year to other years.
My point is this.
At an individual level you can have someone who decides to not send in forms for a number of reasons, change of heart, financial pressure, new girlfriend at home - whatever. That happens every year and is somewhat predictable (because the GROUP of 140,000 people will have these things happen in guessable percentages.
Next you will have localized issues that will affect the process. The upheaval in Ukraine, Venezuela, Egypt and Syria for instance are all factors that might affect the process. Take Venezuela for instance, that may strengthen the desire for someone to leave the country and therefore improve their return rates BUT it might affect their ability to go through the process by affecting access to documents from the government etc. So - these localized issues might be a factor to increase or decrease the overall success rates, but they will only affect a part of a region - or a country.
The final level is a global event that affects the process. These must be VERY rare and it is this type that you need to explain your theory. A global event is something that affects all 140k selectees. The last most obvious one we saw for sure was 2012 with the redraw and I can use that to illustrate the description of a coherent theory.
THEORY: The redraw obviously impacted the whole selectee population, but statistics show that the impact was much worse in AF region that other regions (leading to the Sloner theory). Most adults recognize that AF region was more impacted because communication and technology in AF region probably meant that many people didn't find out about their selection in the second draw and that this phenomenon was less of an issue in other regions such as Europe.
Ok - so back to my question and challenge. On Facebook, you confirmed that your theory is that there are a lot more second holes this year compared to a normal year - even compared to 2013. You point at the (incomplete) data in CEAC as evidence. Fine - but my challenge is that you have to explain that with some theory that would cause this mass behaviour. This has to be a global level theory because you are saying this second holes sudden increase is happening globally. Mass behaviour doesn't just change without reason.
I hope that makes more sense....
Bayern champion.!!!
