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Max CN limitation for each REGION - my prediction !!!!!!

alberto1 said:
All predictions seem very close to the real numbers so far, except Africa.
Has anyone figured out what is happening with Africa this year?

Less available visas for Africa region?
Miscalculations?
Consulate problems?
A massive jump on September bulletin?
Something else?
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it might be a political decision, in this case they not take 55k, it will be around 51k/52k as last year, all my calculation was based on the 55k visas ....
 
Britsimon said:
Wow. Who would have expected that. What could possibly have happened??
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You better read or see video press conference with representatives of the State Department. Then understand who works there. You do not understand anything and are not interested in your power. You are a real European.
 
Sloner said:
You better read or see video press conference with representatives of the State Department. Then understand who works there. You do not understand anything and are not interested in your power. You are a real European.
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Ok this post was cryptic, but the post you deleted was less cryptic. In it, you basically say that the DOS are incompetent and you don't trust in their "knowledge and ability to analyse the situation". In other words you now think they are incompetent because they selected the numbers based on 2012 assuming the response rate would be the same for Africa in this year. That didn't happen of course, so now you are left with the uncomfortable realisation that your assumptions (identical to those of the DoS) were wrong. Instead of writing the same clumsy comments about me, why don't you just admit you were wrong. Being wrong isn't a crime, in fact I have been wrong many times over this last year and still HOPE to be proven wrong in DV2014.
 
Britsimon said:
Ok this post was cryptic, but the post you deleted was less cryptic. In it, you basically say that the DOS are incompetent and you don't trust in their "knowledge and ability to analyse the situation". In other words you now think they are incompetent because they selected the numbers based on 2012 assuming the response rate would be the same for Africa in this year. That didn't happen of course, so now you are left with the uncomfortable realisation that your assumptions (identical to those of the DoS) were wrong. Instead of writing the same clumsy comments about me, why don't you just admit you were wrong. Being wrong isn't a crime, in fact I have been wrong many times over this last year and still HOPE to be proven wrong in DV2014.
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Why admit a mistake, which is no. I write about events options. Their may be many. You want I threw the white flag until July? Do not wait. Raevskii still proves that number 38700 in Europe do not get a visa.You personally have not said anything to him. Not good at it.
 
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Hello Malcomx , I'm from Asia and My case number is AS19XXX , I'm not from Nepal , what are my chances to get CURRENT In september ? thank you so much
 
Bashar said:
Hello Malcomx , I'm from Asia and My case number is AS19XXX , I'm not from Nepal , what are my chances to get CURRENT In september ? thank you so much
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if we check the latest CEAC file, we can see that from 0 to 4500 they issued 1616 visa, since the density is the same up to 8900 and probably also up to 9500, so we will have 1616 * 2 = 3216, if we add the:
1- latecomers (sending forms or ready cases) +
2- APs cases
3- AOS

I am sure that we will have more then 3500 visas, it means that the Nepali 9500 will remain next month, and that will give a real opportunity to the rest of asia with a big jump, most probably we will reach 17xxx or even 18xxx, in addition if Iran reach also his country so most probably Asia will go current....
 
MalcomX said:
if we check the latest CEAC file, we can see that from 0 to 4500 they issued 1616 visa, since the density is the same up to 8900 and probably also up to 9500, so we will have 1616 * 2 = 3216, if we add the:
1- latecomers (sending forms or ready cases) +
2- APs cases
3- AOS

I am sure that we will have more then 3500 visas, it means that the Nepali 9500 will remain next month, and that will give a real opportunity to the rest of asia with a big jump, most probably we will reach 17xxx or even 18xxx, in addition if Iran reach also his country so most probably Asia will go current....
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and For EU is it still 43400 or new number in your mind.
 
istog said:
and For EU is it still 43400 or new number in your mind.
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the calculation that I made last March was mainly based on the DV-2013 quotas, since we know know that Europe will have few thousands more (between 3k and 5k), so I am sure that the 43400 must be reviewed and can hit 46k or even more, same for Africa the 106k must be reviewed also, most probably 95k or even less. so be quiet I am sure that you will have you chicken ;), just be ready for the interview.... this year is the year of Europe...... (as it was before 2006)
 
I've been thinking DV 2015.
Max CN:
Africa - 99xxx
Europa - 45xxx
Oceania - 22xx
Asia - 19xxx.
The results were published on May 1. They already know 90% of the maximum numbers in 2014. But there is another mystery. Winners were reduced in special countries. So the cells filled other countries and then the maximum number of falls.
 
MalcomX said:
if we check the latest CEAC file, we can see that from 0 to 4500 they issued 1616 visa, since the density is the same up to 8900 and probably also up to 9500, so we will have 1616 * 2 = 3216, if we add the:
1- latecomers (sending forms or ready cases) +
2- APs cases
3- AOS

I am sure that we will have more then 3500 visas, it means that the Nepali 9500 will remain next month, and that will give a real opportunity to the rest of asia with a big jump, most probably we will reach 17xxx or even 18xxx, in addition if Iran reach also his country so most probably Asia will go current....
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Malcom :
Nepal won't remain at 9500 !
A minimum stretch in in august 10k maximum 10.5k...
Because they will still take from Nacara unused visas, the 3500 limit was never applied historicaly speaking.
 
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