Max CN limitation for each REGION - my prediction !!!!!!

[MalcomX]

Since we know that 140k will gives more then 55k so for sure many region will not go current this year,
some of you already calculated those number, I'll use another methods for that and show you how step by step,

at the beginning, we need to have a threshold: how many visas will be provided, we will assume that they will give all the 55k (the totality), from the 55k we have around 53200 doing Consular Process (NACARA+AOS= 1800)

of course, we can consider other cases like assuming that they will give same amount as last year but I prefer to concentrate on the most realistic one,

from the CEAC and after many calculation that I did (including the one with Vladek last time), I can assume that we almost have the same success rate and for all the region comparing to last year CEAC file, using those values, we can calculate how much winner we will have this years and for all regions:

• AF --> with 61942 selectees and total success rate of 39.2% we should have 24164 visa,removing the 3% of AOS, CP visa for AF will be 23440.
• Eu --> with 46589 selectees and total success rate of 42.6% we should have 19847 visa, removing 3% of AOS, CP visa for EU will be 19251.
• AS --> with 23270 selectees and total success rate of 49.2% we should have 11448 visa, removing 3% of AOS, CP visa for AS will be 11105.for asia we have one specification, we know that Nepal will hit the country limit (3500+ 270=3770 max)and around 1000 Nepalis will not be able to attend the interview (same as Iran last year), with the highest success rate of 86% in the world so we will be able to remove around 860 from the total so the final number will be 10245.
• SA --> 4620 selectees, total success rate= 31.9% --> 1474 visa, so 1430 CP visas.
• OC --> 4215 selectees, total success rate= 26.2% -->1105 visa, so 1072 CP visas.

so the total will be= 55438 for all region, so 55438 - 53200 = 2238 extra visas for all regions,

let's calculate that per region:

-Africa:
(23440 * 53200)/55438 = 22494, so 23440 - 22494 = 946 extra visas, that number will give 2413 persons selected,
--> 2413 * 0.565 = 1364 CN refused (0.565 is the family rate for the none special African countries),
we know that the distribution is around 140 CN each 1000,
--> 1364 CN/140 = 9.7428 * 1000 = 9743 rank , means 116500-9743 = 106758 will be the max African CN.

Europe:
(19251 * 53200)/55438 = 18474, 19251-18474= 777 extra visa , that number will give 1824 selected,
--> 1824 * 0.465 = 847 CN refused (0.465 is the family rate for the none special European countries)
we know that the distribution is around 215 each 1000 excluding the special countries:
--> (847CN/215)* 1000 = 3940 rank ,
We know that some European CN are more then 50k but the distribution at the end is not uniform (from DV-2013 CEAC data), so I calculated the max average I got 47700 as max CN,
--> 47700-3940 = 43760 will be the max European CN.

Asia:
(10245* 53200)/55438= 9832, 10245-9832= 413 extra, that number will give 844 selected.
--> 844 * 0.51 = 431 CN refused (0.51 is family rate for Asia)
since 431 CN will include the rejected peoples from Nepal, we will not have a limitation for the other countries in Asia except Nepal of course, so Asia will go current
concerning Nepal since the max country is 3770, if we remove 3% of AOS we will have 3657 CP case,
from Mars CEAC, we can see that the max CN who got visa issued is 2014AS3694 for 768 cases done in total
and 629 issued visa , since family rate for Nepal is 54%, so with 3657 case , we will have 1975 CN max in total,
the max CN will be (3694*1975)/629= 11600
so the max Nepali CN will be 11600, all Asia will be current

South America (easy region to predict since we don't have any special countries, I'll use another method):
(1430* 53200)/55438 = 1373 max visas, the family rate is 41%, so 1373*0.41= 563CN
the success rate is 83%, so the total CN scheduled for interview is 563*0.83= 468 CN will have interview an interview
since the distribution is around 30 per 100, so (468/30) * 100 = 1558 will be the max CN for SA,

Oceania (easy region to predict since we don't have any special countries):
(1072* 53200)/55438 = 1029 max visas, the family rate is 57%, so 1029*0.57= 590CN
the success rate is 79%, so the total CN scheduled for interview is 590*0.79= 467 CN got an interview
since the distribution is around 29 per 100, so (467/29) * 100 = 1611 will be the max CN for SA,

 

[Rayme]

....

 

[Rayme]

u must be joking mate... with what ever calculation u have done... till now NEpali selectee density is 386 per 1000 which is including AP and rejected with that cases till 10000 will have 3860 selectee and u are saying 8490 will be max Nepali case.. can u please elaborate this...

 

[MalcomX]

I wrote: 'concerning Nepal since the max country is 3370' --> it's 3770 instead of 3370 , it's a keying errors , if you see above, you will find the correct number in Asia section when I said '3500+ 270=3770 max'
using the correct number I got max CN for Nepal= 9500 (I have updated the main thread with the related details)

 

[vladek15425]

Thanks macom its brilliant work.
Now ironicaly I agree with your result for AF,SA and EU and bit with OC...
1-As you know I don't like using Cns because there are not reliable or trustable! I prefer using the number of selectees uncl families.
2- using the succes rate for each region is also not trustable ! How : because like I said on my previous posts, the number of selectees that shows on the data ex : february we get I think 30k that produced nearly 16k visa is ''FAKE'' ! Because only the ones that responded that will show on he data, so we can not concider that 30k to calculate the succes rate....
And if you take nepal that has more than 6000 selectees! But obviously not everyone responded so not everyone will show on the data,than I don't belive they will hit the limit at 8490. Although the take up rate is good in nepal....
Remember malcom I'm still trying to prove the second-holes effect on the Data...

 

[vladek15425]

Duplicate

 

[MalcomX]

you don't need to prove it, it's the reality

concerning Nepali number it's 9500 instead of 8490 (I've put 3370 interested of 3770), the threat has been updated,

concerning you first point (using CNs or selectees): I think in some cases/operation we can use it as I did as it will not affect the result, but in other calculation we can't.

you are right, we can't use the current CEAC data since we are in the middle of the year, that's why I used the 30sep2013 one, even if some embassies are missed but the success rate will remain the same, I used the current CEAC only for one thing: to find and compare the distribution of the CNs.

thanks a lot for your useful advices

Thanks macom its brilliant work.
Now ironicaly I agree with your result for AF,SA and EU and bit with OC...
1-As you know I don't like using Cns because there are not reliable or trustable! I prefer using the number of selectees uncl families.
2- using the succes rate for each region is also not trustable ! How : because like I said on my previous posts, the number of selectees that shows on the data ex : february we get I think 30k that produced nearly 16k visa is ''FAKE'' ! Because only the ones that responded that will show on he data, so we can not concider that 30k to calculate the succes rate....
And if you take nepal that has more than 6000 selectees! But obviously not everyone responded so not everyone will show on the data,than I don't belive they will hit the limit at 8490. Although the take up rate is good in nepal....
Remember malcom I'm still trying to prove the second-holes effect on the Data...

 

[vladek15425]

you don't need to prove it, it's the reality

concerning Nepali number it's 9500 instead of 8490 (I've put 3370 interested of 3770), the threat has been updated,

concerning you first point (using CNs or selectees): I think in some cases/operation we can use it as I did as it will not affect the result, but in other calculation we can't.

you are right, we can't use the current CEAC data since we are in the middle of the year, that's why I used the 30sep2013 one, even if some embassies are missed but the success rate will remain the same, I used the current CEAC only for one thing: to find and compare the distribution of the CNs.

thanks a lot for your useful advices

Thanks to you malcom. I learn a lot from your posts

 

[vladek15425]

What I'm trying to prove as well is that no one can realy calculate in anyway !!!!!
Since we don't really get hold the second-holes amount number.

 

[denitsa_zz]

Europe:
(19251 * 53200)/55438 = 18474, 19251-18474= 777 extra visa , that number will give 1824 selected,
--> 1824 * 0.465 = 847 CN refused (0.465 is the family rate for the none special European countries)
we know that the distribution is around 215 each 1000 excluding the special countries:
--> (847CN/215)* 1000 = 3940 rank ,
We know that some European CN are more then 50k but the distribution at the end is not uniform (from DV-2013 CEAC data), so I calculated the max average I got 47700 as max CN,
--> 47700-3940 = 43760 will be the max European CN.

The max case number in Europe is 60000, but till 54000, they are with normal density. I think that you have to use 54000 as max case number for Europe.

 

[Sloner]

Africa 2413 * 0.565 = 1364 CN refused

Failures will be more + "Ready" did not come back for an interview.

Europe:
(19251 * 53200)/55438 = 18474, 19251-18474= 777 extra visa , that number will give 1824 selected,
--> 1824 * 0.465 = 847 CN refused (0.465 is the family rate for the none special European countries)
we know that the distribution is around 215 each 1000 excluding the special countries:
--> (847CN/215)* 1000 = 3940 rank ,
We know that some European CN are more then 50k but the distribution at the end is not uniform (from DV-2013 CEAC data), so I calculated the max average I got 47700 as max CN,
--> 47700-3940 = 43760 will be the max European CN.

with so many visas will all go to the interview
max CN Ukraine and Uzbekistan- 18000

 

[MalcomX]

Thanks to you malcom. I learn a lot from your posts

me too.... I learn from everybody even those who don't agree with me

 

[vladek15425]

me too.... I learn from everybody even those who don't agree with me

Well said
Now malcom just wanna add somthing, since we are not able to know how many didnt respond with forms yet (second_holes)!
Im looking for away to trace it or to caculate it,but i havent find any solution just may be a guessing estimate,obviously there will be some turn-backs so it will make it even harder to guess!
But for now this is my thinking i believe by now that the capacity of the embassies is actualy the same for the whole process
When before i thought its speed up like 3 times at the last two months because of big cutoffs, whiles its just because there is hardly cases at the end and the 95% had been already inteviewed.
So for 7 months process 40k are shceduled, what is the real amount of selectess out of 140k do you think has been gone through??

 

[MalcomX]

What I'm trying to prove as well is that no one can realy calculate in anyway !!!!!
Since we don't really get hold the second-holes amount number.

I think that we can't calculate it but we can predict it, if we take a simple region as SA:
From the 30 sep 2013 CEAC we can see that the density is 31 CN per 100, means 69 holes per 100, this will include the normal holes plus the second-holes (no response cases as Simon called them) ,
--> we know that we have 2398 selected family members, and 943 submitted their forms, so the no response case will be 2398-943 = 1455 person.
--> that the family rate for SA region is 41%, so 1455*0.41 will give 597 CN,
--> since the max CN was 1299 but from 1100 to 1299 we have almost same as from 1000 to 1100, so we assume that the distribution is between 0 and 1199,
--> since we have 12 hundreds, so 597 CN/12 = 50 second holes
so the total holes (69) = System Holes (19) + Second Holes (50) (for DV2013)

we can calculate second holes for other regions by using same method

 

[MalcomX]

do you think that we have a normal density till 54000... wawww, in this case the max CN will be 54k-4k = 50k as max CN good new

The max case number in Europe is 60000, but till 54000, they are with normal density. I think that you have to use 54000 as max case number for Europe.

 

[MalcomX]

I have excluded both of them since for me they will go current , I might be wrong of course ...

Failures will be more + "Ready" did not come back for an interview.

with so many visas will all go to the interview
max CN Ukraine and Uzbekistan- 18000

 

[eliolaz]

Guys last night i check the data from CEAC and i saw that every case that is not showing issued from Moscow is at the moment showing AP. It may be some political issue???
If they cut-off Russia I think there will be no limit for Ukraine.
Is there someone from Russia, that can tell if the embassy in MOS is issuing DV visas?
You have done a great job calculating, but i still think that some regions will go current. You estimate that they will cut off regions evenly. I don't think that will happen.

 

[raevsky]

Only a few dozens of Russians and a few dozens of Ukrainians are banned from getting US visas because of the crisis. Likely none of them was going to apply for a DV visa, they are all public officers of either Russia, Ukraine or Crimea.

 

[House409]

Raevsky, what do you think about Malcom's estimate? You are usually on the pessimistic side about the CN cutoffs. From what you observe, do you think the holes in the sequence will give more chance to the high CN selectees?

 

[eliolaz]

Only a few dozens of Russians and a few dozens of Ukrainians are banned from getting US visas because of the crisis. Likely none of them was going to apply for a DV visa, they are all public officers of either Russia, Ukraine or Crimea.

I am aware of that, but why all the cases from MOS are APs?