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Max CN limitation for each REGION - my prediction !!!!!!

britsimon said:
Vladek

Just to continue this comment from the aos thread.

You said:-

"You see what I mean now simon !
You asked me to explain the drop-out!? Its a human variable I ca trace it 100% look at this case student in USA but he missed-out about the DV process! Remember 80% of the 140k do not speak nor read english, so the second-holes will be as I said very effective..."

I think you misunderstand what I asked you to explain.

Your theory of excessive "second holes" is based on the belief that large numbers of selectees are failing to return their papers this year. We know this always happens, so we are not talking about individual cases, what you are saying that AS A GROUP the 140,000 selectees are behaving differently this year to other years.

My point is this.

At an individual level you can have someone who decides to not send in forms for a number of reasons, change of heart, financial pressure, new girlfriend at home - whatever. That happens every year and is somewhat predictable (because the GROUP of 140,000 people will have these things happen in guessable percentages.

Next you will have localized issues that will affect the process. The upheaval in Ukraine, Venezuela, Egypt and Syria for instance are all factors that might affect the process. Take Venezuela for instance, that may strengthen the desire for someone to leave the country and therefore improve their return rates BUT it might affect their ability to go through the process by affecting access to documents from the government etc. So - these localized issues might be a factor to increase or decrease the overall success rates, but they will only affect a part of a region - or a country.

The final level is a global event that affects the process. These must be VERY rare and it is this type that you need to explain your theory. A global event is something that affects all 140k selectees. The last most obvious one we saw for sure was 2012 with the redraw and I can use that to illustrate the description of a coherent theory.

THEORY: The redraw obviously impacted the whole selectee population, but statistics show that the impact was much worse in AF region that other regions (leading to the Sloner theory). Most adults recognize that AF region was more impacted because communication and technology in AF region probably meant that many people didn't find out about their selection in the second draw and that this phenomenon was less of an issue in other regions such as Europe.


Ok - so back to my question and challenge. On Facebook, you confirmed that your theory is that there are a lot more second holes this year compared to a normal year - even compared to 2013. You point at the (incomplete) data in CEAC as evidence. Fine - but my challenge is that you have to explain that with some theory that would cause this mass behaviour. This has to be a global level theory because you are saying this second holes sudden increase is happening globally. Mass behaviour doesn't just change without reason.

I hope that makes more sense....
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Not an easy mission you are giving here simon but i will :)
Give me a day to think about all the factors that can cause this massive drop !
 
vladek15425 said:
Simon :
Can you perhaps tell how many responded in DV13 according to raevskys data ?
Like if you add issued+refused+readys+Aps all together for the whole dv13?
Thanks
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vladek15425 said:
If you can also give us an estimate about how many of the sloner effect missing for that same data to add it on ?
Thanks in advance ;)
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Yes - that number is already on the summary page of the 2013 CEAC data. Globally, there were 66828 respondees in the CEAC data (including family). We know the CEAC data is about 10% understated (only has 45k visas issued) so we could assume we could increase the 66.8 number by 10% - so call it 74k. There were 105k selectees and another 5k in the second draw - so the responses were 75/110 - 68%. The remaining 32% were either aos or non responses (second holes).

This means we can expect about 42k of the 140 to not respond at all - and around 3k to be doing aos.
 
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Fine - but my challenge is that you have to explain that with some theory that would cause this mass behaviour. This has to be a global level theory because you are saying this second holes sudden increase is happening globally. Mass behaviour doesn't just change without reason.
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new software. :) It's so simple.
Next you will have localized issues that will affect the process. The upheaval in Ukraine, Venezuela, Egypt and Syria for instance are all factors that might affect the process. Take Venezuela for instance, that may strengthen the desire for someone to leave the country and therefore improve their return rates BUT it might affect their ability to go through the process by affecting access to documents from the government etc. So - these localized issues might be a factor to increase or decrease the overall success rates, but they will only affect a part of a region - or a country.
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In Ukraine, hard to say. Part of the population, especially Western Ukraine is experiencing an upswing of patriotic feelings. The eastern part of the mass immigrates. I think the balance is preserved. This situation does not affect the lottery.
 
britsimon said:
Yes - that number is already on the summary page of the 2013 CEAC data. Globally, there were 66828 respondees in the CEAC data (including family). We know the CEAC data is about 10% understated (only has 45k visas issued) so we could assume we could increase the 66.8 number by 10% - so call it 74k. There were 105k selectees and another 5k in the second draw - so the responses were 75/110 - 68%. The remaining 32% were either aos or non responses (second holes).

This means we can expect about 42k of the 140 to not respond at all - and around 3k to be doing aos.
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About the aos we will see if they appear on the data ! Just let us know you gonna be our labmouse :)
 
Sloner said:
new software. :) It's so simple.
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No Sloner. Let me say it very slowly.

The global change that Vladek is discussing is on the RESPONSE rate. That is selectees deciding whether to send in their forms or not. In what POSSIBLE WAY could "new software" affect that????
 
No Sloner. Let me say it very slowly.

The global change that Vladek is discussing is on the RESPONSE rate. That is selectees deciding whether to send in their forms or not. In what POSSIBLE WAY could "new software" affect that????
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mediator works here. he is greedy. He wants a lot of money. Example: Western Ukraine, There is taken the database of people and sent the application. This is observed in Turkey and Moldova.
 
lololololololol.... as I explained 1422 CN with 2.6 family rate will give= 1422*2.6 = 3698, even I they will all pass the interview and get the visa it's still ok ;)

Ameer said:
Hi Malcomx,Kermo
I dis agree with you that all egyptin will have their interview,because you just considered the CN # and you have to consider the faimly member also because egypt visa issued cann't be more than 3850.
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