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January VB numbers released!!!

IheartNY said:
Britsimon, Sloaner, vladek15425

Given the wackadoodle progression for Oceania thus far- how do you think the numbers will progress over the next few months? Only 16% of selectees (650 out of >4200) have been called so far...
Click to expand...


OC is a mystery.

Is the slow progression to do with capacity to process that many selectees within OC?
Last year they averaged around 150 case numbers per month. That really is not very many. I can't believe that they could manage 200 or even 250 per month within the region.

Is the slow progress to do with a regional quota?
Well I have been assuming that OC must have had an increase in quota. The global increase in selectees was around 30% more than usual, but OC doubled the numbers of selectees. I just can't understand why they would do that if they did not expect to increase quota for OC region. However, I have no proof of that.

So - what will happen?
My best guess at the moment?? I still believe that OC must get a bit of a bump up. I think future VBs should increase by an average of 200 to 250 per month. That should see case numbers up around 2400/2500 by September. That would result in A LOT of unhappy people, but still it represents a big increase in pace. So, we need to see OC at 850/900 next month AT LEAST! Even then, that is a pretty depressing scenario. I hope it is actually better than that.
 
britsimon said:
OC is a mystery.

Is the slow progression to do with capacity to process that many selectees within OC?
Last year they averaged around 150 case numbers per month. That really is not very many. I can't believe that they could manage 200 or even 250 per month within the region.

Is the slow progress to do with a regional quota?
Well I have been assuming that OC must have had an increase in quota. The global increase in selectees was around 30% more than usual, but OC doubled the numbers of selectees. I just can't understand why they would do that if they did not expect to increase quota for OC region. However, I have no proof of that.

So - what will happen?
My best guess at the moment?? I still believe that OC must get a bit of a bump up. I think future VBs should increase by an average of 200 to 250 per month. That should see case numbers up around 2400/2500 by September. That would result in A LOT of unhappy people, but still it represents a big increase in pace. So, we need to see OC at 850/900 next month AT LEAST! Even then, that is a pretty depressing scenario. I hope it is actually better than that.
Click to expand...

I think oc will still go slowly as usual and I belive that might still go current coz there will be lot of visa applicant failures for AF that will dispatched to the other regions but still, high cn won't be satisfied.
 
britsimon said:
OC is a mystery.

Is the slow progression to do with capacity to process that many selectees within OC?
Last year they averaged around 150 case numbers per month. That really is not very many. I can't believe that they could manage 200 or even 250 per month within the region.

Is the slow progress to do with a regional quota?
Well I have been assuming that OC must have had an increase in quota. The global increase in selectees was around 30% more than usual, but OC doubled the numbers of selectees. I just can't understand why they would do that if they did not expect to increase quota for OC region. However, I have no proof of that.

So - what will happen?
My best guess at the moment?? I still believe that OC must get a bit of a bump up. I think future VBs should increase by an average of 200 to 250 per month. That should see case numbers up around 2400/2500 by September. That would result in A LOT of unhappy people, but still it represents a big increase in pace. So, we need to see OC at 850/900 next month AT LEAST! Even then, that is a pretty depressing scenario. I hope it is actually better than that.
Click to expand...


Even to get to 2400 -2500 would be something given the current state of our numbers.
 
Thanks gents. My CN is around OC2000. Im crossing my fingers now for an acceleration in cut offs, and won't be uncrossing them any time soon :)


vladek15425 said:
I think oc will still go slowly as usual and I belive that might still go current coz there will be lot of visa applicant failures for AF that will dispatched to the other regions but still, high cn won't be satisfied.
Click to expand...
 
Please dear Friends i want to read some discussion on what actually is going on Asia.This is more disappointing month by month.In my opinion now even 10k is unsafe in this region.what is your views regarding this matter!
 
oskarson said:
Please dear Friends i want to read some discussion on what actually is going on Asia.This is more disappointing month by month.In my opinion now even 10k is unsafe in this region.what is your views regarding this matter!
Click to expand...

10k is a verry safe number thing will start moving from march.
 
These threads about VB cut offs keep descending from lamentations and gnashing of teeth into football slanging matches lol. You guys are funny.
 
feeling broken and i am very upset in the midway of Dv calender asia made me feel case of 13K has no chance at all....
 
IheartNY said:
These threads about VB cut offs keep descending from lamentations and gnashing of teeth into football slanging matches lol. You guys are funny.
Click to expand...

Word!

Regardless, thanks for the numbers Simon. Can't believe OC!
 
i know this is true i beleive u simon but i wish oh god make you this time wrong... ohh I am hoping for a miracle
 
Just had a look back at vb feb 2013. The eu cn stands at 32% of all announced case numbers which is pretty much equal to the share of visa usually issued yo this region. This year ithe cn share for feb is 38%. Thus could indicate an allocation of more visas to eu this year or it could just be a coincidence. Eu still has about 33% of the winners. I think though the eu cn numbers will begin to move faster as limitations is been placed on uzb and my guess ukr soon. These two countries plus Russia is almost 25% of the winners in eu. And if every winner has in average one dependant somewhere around 7000 case numbers would be wasted from these countries. So when we speak of the high numbers of eu winners in reality we gave to deduct several thousands of case numbers which will never be in play due to the country limits of 7 % of all visas. Consequently I hypothesise that there is a difference between nominal winners and effective winners for eu in the realm of 10,000 cn, uzb,ukr, rus turk, and the effective amount of eu winners is therefore closer to 36,000. This could explain the need to increase the nominal amount of winners for eu in total. Just guessing
 
Perhaps you are right Sloner, I would be interested to hear why you think that is so? For what reason do you think they don't want anything to do with Oceania.
Click to expand...
On the Oceania a quotain in 1100-1200 of visas. It is very small.
Britsimon, Sloner, vladek15425
Given the wackadoodle progression for Oceania thus far- how do you think the numbers will progress over the next few months? Only 16% of selectees (650 out of >4200) have been called so far...
Click to expand...
max CN 3000. March will 800-875. Big jump will happen in June. Until 1800-1900.
Please dear Friends i want to read some discussion on what actually is going on Asia.This is more disappointing month by month.In my opinion now even 10k is unsafe in this region.what is your views regarding this matter!
Click to expand...
In Asia, not all reach the interview. Max anadromous CN 17-19000. Nepal will receive a special cutt-off.
 
Just had a look back at vb feb 2013. The eu cn stands at 32% of all announced case numbers which is pretty much equal to the share of visa usually issued yo this region. This year ithe cn share for feb is 38%. Thus could indicate an allocation of more visas to eu this year or it could just be a coincidence. Eu still has about 33% of the winners. I think though the eu cn numbers will begin to move faster as limitations is been placed on uzb and my guess ukr soon. These two countries plus Russia is almost 25% of the winners in eu. And if every winner has in average one dependant somewhere around 7000 case numbers would be wasted from these countries. So when we speak of the high numbers of eu winners in reality we gave to deduct several thousands of case numbers which will never be in play due to the country limits of 7 % of all visas. Consequently I hypothesise that there is a difference between nominal winners and effective winners for eu in the realm of 10,000 cn, uzb,ukr, rus turk, and the effective amount of eu winners is therefore closer to 36,000. This could explain the need to increase the nominal amount of winners for eu in total. Just guessing
Click to expand...
Ukraine will not receive special cutt-off. After 20,000 of these two openings. 18,000 visas allocated. It turns out 1000 extra visas. This is CN 50,000 and above. Do not mind the figure of 36,000. I'm sick of it. This delusional coined by number 1.

Britisimon, Vladek, For Bayern it was a meaningless match. She's in 1/8.
 
britsimon said:
OC is a mystery.

Is the slow progression to do with capacity to process that many selectees within OC?
Last year they averaged around 150 case numbers per month. That really is not very many. I can't believe that they could manage 200 or even 250 per month within the region.

Is the slow progress to do with a regional quota?
Well I have been assuming that OC must have had an increase in quota. The global increase in selectees was around 30% more than usual, but OC doubled the numbers of selectees. I just can't understand why they would do that if they did not expect to increase quota for OC region. However, I have no proof of that.

So - what will happen?
My best guess at the moment?? I still believe that OC must get a bit of a bump up. I think future VBs should increase by an average of 200 to 250 per month. That should see case numbers up around 2400/2500 by September. That would result in A LOT of unhappy people, but still it represents a big increase in pace. So, we need to see OC at 850/900 next month AT LEAST! Even then, that is a pretty depressing scenario. I hope it is actually better than that.
Click to expand...

Britsimon, thanks as usual for your efforts (in phoning KCC) and your analysis. I'm 22XX, so I'm starting to get worried, but all I can do is wait. It's getting disheartening, though -- waiting every month, not even for my case number to become current, but just for the sense that my case number will someday become current, only to read yet another disappointing monthly figure.
 
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