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January VB numbers released!!!

only nepal?????????????? even iran has 6000 slectee what for them ??????????
In Asia, not all reach the interview. Max anadromous CN 17-19000. Nepal will receive a special cutt-off.[/QUOTE]
 
I think Nepal and Iran will have special cut off if the take up rate is high in both countries. We need to understand why special cut off exist in the first place. Special cut off happen when a particular country do not have enough interview slot from their embassies to fulfill the available visa, so special cut off is needed to avoid any bottlenecks. Now, look at Nepal and Iran, they have 6k+ selectees. Let said only half of the selectees take up rate which is 3k selectees. It needs to interview 12 or more selectees in a day in 20 days a month and let also assume derivative ratio to principal applicant is 1 to 1, which mean it need 6 interview slots per day just for DV. That's impossible to get 6 interview slots per day for 20 days a month moreover my calculation is conservative one.

If no special cut off happen, it is normal for Asia to progress less than 1k case # per month which the assumption of 700-800 visa available each month. So, for Asian we hope the special cut off happen as soon as possible. When special cut off happen, it is not a bad thing for Nepal and Iran, in fact is a good thing because the movement will be quicker and it will benefit all Asian. But sadly up to 5 months now, there is still no special cut off. So let hope it happen in March 14.
 
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lets clear out some thing 23000 from asia means including derivatives and same for iran and NEpal to that 6000 includes derivatives as of last year 16000 selectee holds just 11000 cases we donot know how many is there for 23000 cases so and this time i think many asian will not get interview and if situation like this goes it wont go current atall
kayend said:
I think Nepal and Iran will have special cut off if the take up rate is high in both countries. We need to understand why special cut off exist in the first place. Special cut off happen when a particular country do not have enough interview slot from their embassies to fulfill the available visa, so special cut off is needed to avoid any bottlenecks. Now, look at Nepal and Iran, they have 6k+ selectees. Let said only half of the selectees take up rate which is 3k selectees. It needs to interview 12 or more selectees in a day in 20 days a month and let also assume derivative ratio to principal applicant is 1 to 1, which mean it need 6 interview slots per day just for DV. That's impossible to get 6 interview slots per day for 20 days a month moreover my calculation is conservative one.

If no special cut off happen, it is normal for Asia to progress less than 1k case # per month which the assumption of 700-800 visa available each month. So, for Asian we hope the special cut off happen as soon as possible. When special cut off happen, it is not a bad thing for Nepal and Iran, in fact is a good thing because the movement will be quicker and it will benefit all Asian. But sadly up to 5 months now, there is still no special cut off. So let hope it happen in March 14.
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Rayme said:
lets clear out some thing 23000 from asia means including derivatives and same for iran and NEpal to that 6000 includes derivatives as of last year 16000 selectee holds just 11000 cases we donot know how many is there for 23000 cases so and this time i think many asian will not get interview and if situation like this goes it wont go current atall
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Yes, selectee figure includes derivatives. 23.5k selectees include their derivatives. If Asia progress as it is, it will not get even Asia quota fulfill which is usually 8-9k range. What DOS wanted is to fulfill it quota and that is the reason why it increase the number of selectees. In DV13, 16k is not enough to fulfill the Asia quota, so if DV14 is the same pattern as DV13, it needs around 19k case # or more.
 
Let assume Asia progress with the same rate as Feb cut off, it only manage to cover 9k case # and that translate to 6,260 selectees (16/23 * 9000). Firstly, 6260 selectees cannot fulfill its regional quota. Secondly, every selectees in the first 6260 have to apply for it and thirdly all 6260 get approved and visa issued. That's possible is near zero since we already know some Asian get rejected in this forum. I just based on logical calculation here. Of course no one know what is going to happen but based on the figure and calculation, Asia should not progress with this slowness.
 
Last year Iran was the only country with the highest case number. This year if we compare, almost all the country's case number has doubled except Iran and Nepal . So all the country occupies the same share of numbers till around 4000, so a cut off can't be obtained..I am just guessing!! According to previous post, Iran has case number mostly below 10,000, so there is a chance now that Iran will get a cut off in next bulletin and then until 8-9k when Nepal might start getting a cut off. Just my opinion :)
 
vladek15425 said:
Unfortunatly for oc the cut offs always moves slowly :(
So for march I can only expect 150 or maximim 200 jump.
Big jumps only occurs on AF and eu cut offs . Because of in oc I doubts that there is lot
Of holes , and succes rate is high.
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africa's jump is very small , compare to number of its CN's, and worst situation with asia..
only EU(among 3 big regions) has more or less progress for february
 
dolopar said:
Last year Iran was the only country with the highest case number. This year if we compare, almost all the country's case number has doubled except Iran and Nepal . So all the country occupies the same share of numbers till around 4000, so a cut off can't be obtained..I am just guessing!! According to previous post, Iran has case number mostly below 10,000, so there is a chance now that Iran will get a cut off in next bulletin and then until 8-9k when Nepal might start getting a cut off. Just my opinion :)
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Yes, I am having the same thought.: )
 
rocky72 said:
africa's jump is very small , compare to number of its CN's, and worst situation with asia..
only EU(among 3 big regions) has more or less progress for february
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Agreed AF is verry small this time, but from march month
The af cut offs will start moving considerably.
 
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iam in state of disarray and uncertainty about my chances hope everything goes fine i am now counting my chances very low being 13k in asia and main from Nepal
britsimon said:
I feel exactly the same way. I would rejoice if this information turned out to be a mistake!
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Eucn said:
Just had a look back at vb feb 2013. The eu cn stands at 32% of all announced case numbers which is pretty much equal to the share of visa usually issued yo this region. This year ithe cn share for feb is 38%. Thus could indicate an allocation of more visas to eu this year or it could just be a coincidence. Eu still has about 33% of the winners. I think though the eu cn numbers will begin to move faster as limitations is been placed on uzb and my guess ukr soon. These two countries plus Russia is almost 25% of the winners in eu. And if every winner has in average one dependant somewhere around 7000 case numbers would be wasted from these countries. So when we speak of the high numbers of eu winners in reality we gave to deduct several thousands of case numbers which will never be in play due to the country limits of 7 % of all visas. Consequently I hypothesise that there is a difference between nominal winners and effective winners for eu in the realm of 10,000 cn, uzb,ukr, rus turk, and the effective amount of eu winners is therefore closer to 36,000. This could explain the need to increase the nominal amount of winners for eu in total. Just guessing
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Sloner said:
Ukraine will not receive special cutt-off. After 20,000 of these two openings. 18,000 visas allocated. It turns out 1000 extra visas. This is CN 50,000 and above. Do not mind the figure of 36,000. I'm sick of it. This delusional coined by number 1.

Britisimon, Vladek, For Bayern it was a meaningless match. She's in 1/8.
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Sloner the 36k number that EUcn mentions is not the cutoff that number 1 predicted it is the effect of 46k selectees less the 10k winners from the nominal/effective explanation. Please try and keep up in class.

EUcn, I do believe EU is being pushed faster OR the simplicity of European candidates (less concerns about terrorist countries/religion) means that they can process fast and the KCC are happy to let EU TAKE a larger share. I have said that several times before - although to be fair I assumed the same would be true for SA and OC.

I see what you are saying about the nominal/effective 10k. I'm not sure the impact will be that great unless those countries actually get close to or hit their limits, which I personally doubt will happen before the global limit is hit. For me the limits placed on countries such as Egypt/Nigeria and Uzbekistan is about their consulates ability to process the numbers of interviews.
 
kayend said:
I think Nepal and Iran will have special cut off if the take up rate is high in both countries. We need to understand why special cut off exist in the first place. Special cut off happen when a particular country do not have enough interview slot from their embassies to fulfill the available visa, so special cut off is needed to avoid any bottlenecks. Now, look at Nepal and Iran, they have 6k+ selectees. Let said only half of the selectees take up rate which is 3k selectees. It needs to interview 12 or more selectees in a day in 20 days a month and let also assume derivative ratio to principal applicant is 1 to 1, which mean it need 6 interview slots per day just for DV. That's impossible to get 6 interview slots per day for 20 days a month moreover my calculation is conservative one.

If no special cut off happen, it is normal for Asia to progress less than 1k case # per month which the assumption of 700-800 visa available each month. So, for Asian we hope the special cut off happen as soon as possible. When special cut off happen, it is not a bad thing for Nepal and Iran, in fact is a good thing because the movement will be quicker and it will benefit all Asian. But sadly up to 5 months now, there is still no special cut off. So let hope it happen in March 14.
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I think we should differentiate between special limits (like Uzbekistan this month) OR a "cut off" where the country hits the 7% limit. So - I agree 100% with your comments above but want to make clear you are not talking about the 7% cut off.
 
I have lost my hope...The interview for february are low...

I don't think to get one interview ..

CN: EU 36***

Good Luck!
 
britsimon said:
I think we should differentiate between special limits (like Uzbekistan this month) OR a "cut off" where the country hits the 7% limit. So - I agree 100% with your comments above but want to make clear you are not talking about the 7% cut off.
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I am talking about special limit...Thanks for quoting it right :)
 
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