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January VB numbers released!!!

britsimon said:
Yup. When I do the maths of how many visas are issued per 10K selectees and also look at the projection for how the quota will be divided I get to a range of around 36 to 38. However, there are various factors that could drive the number higher such as these:-

Possible cutoffs in some countries.
Countries that will have high numbers of abandoned entries or denied visas (because of the sort of fraud that Sloner showed)
Possible increase in EU share (if they push the speed for EU compared to other regions, particularly AF and AS region which are more complex to process)
Possible increase in global share due to unused NACARA allotment.

Basically, I combine those factors and allow more wiggle room than the math allows - and that is why I think the highest EU success will start with a 4.
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Rodger that! I would like to hear reavsky's opinion about
The nacara thing!
 
Possible cutoffs in some countries.
Countries that will have high numbers of abandoned entries or denied visas (because of the sort of fraud that Sloner showed)
Possible increase in EU share (if they push the speed for EU compared to other regions, particularly AF and AS region which are more complex to process)
Possible increase in global share due to unused NACARA allotment.

Basically, I combine those factors and allow more wiggle room than the math allows - and that is why I think the highest EU success will start with a 4.
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+1 reaches 50000 and may be higher.
 
kayend said:
Do you think Asia has any special cut off countries? Last year, Iran take last fiscal month to hit the country limit and based on what you said, Iran and Nepal created a lot of holes after 15k because the selection from those 2 countries disqualify immediately because it already have 6k+ selectees. If not, why Iran only exist in 8k case # and below.

Previously you predicted 18k and now reduced 3k for the hard limit, what make you change your prediction?
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Because I know better the number of visas issued for Asia in DV-13, and because I know now when iranian and nepalese numbers end - I thought iranian numbers would last to ~10600. Yes, I believe both Iran and Nepal are special countries in DV-14
 
raevsky said:
Because I know better the number of visas issued for Asia in DV-13, and because I know now when iranian and nepalese numbers end - I thought iranian numbers would last to ~10600. Yes, I believe both Iran and Nepal are special countries in DV-14
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If both countries will put into special cut off, then other Asian countries will progress further in the range of 18k because Iran and Nepal which holding more than 50% of Asia selectees are slowing down due to logistic issue.
 
kayend said:
If both countries will put into special cut off, then other Asian countries will progress further in the range of 18k because Iran and Nepal which holding more than 50% of Asia selectees are slowing down due to logistic issue.
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Iran and Nepal will get 7000 quota together. Additional 2700 asian visas (with overall asian quota 9700) require numbers up to 15000. More than 15000 does not look like possible. Also, because Guatemala was included as a new country, SA quota went up and AS and NA quota went down, not up. That means that less than 2700 asian numbers from other than nepal and iran countries will get visas. Taking that into account, I believe lowering NACARA numbers even further than in DV-13 (about 300 for NACARA) is very unlikely
 
So now that we are well into it, have you changed your mind about the Oceania cut offs Raevsky?
 
raevsky said:
Iran and Nepal will get 7000 quota together. Additional 2700 asian visas (with overall asian quota 9700) require numbers up to 15000. More than 15000 does not look like possible. Also, because Guatemala was included as a new country, SA quota went up and AS and NA quota went down, not up. That means that less than 2700 asian numbers from other than nepal and iran countries will get visas. Taking that into account, I believe lowering NACARA numbers even further than in DV-13 (about 300 for NACARA) is very unlikely
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Yes, both country will hit their countries limit but it will be toward the end of fiscal year if you agreed that both countries will put under special cut off. So when both countries is slowing down, it will have more interview slots for other Asian countries. So, just looking at 1000 to 3000 case # for other Asian countries do not make sense to me. It might have more than 3000 interview slots and that might push other Asian countries near to 18k. If no special cut for Asia then I think 15k case # is about right.
 
What's puzzled me is that after 5 months progresses, all regions still consider slow based on the number of selectees this year. The only explanation is that the take-up rate is higher than anticipated by DOS. I am sure they based on previous years take up rate to decide the % of increased selectees in DV14.
 
kayend said:
Yes, both country will hit their countries limit but it will be toward the end of fiscal year if you agreed that both countries will put under special cut off. So when both countries is slowing down, it will have more interview slots for other Asian countries. So, just looking at 1000 to 3000 case # for other Asian countries do not make sense to me. It might have more than 3000 interview slots and that might push other Asian countries near to 18k. If no special cut for Asia then I think 15k case # is about right.
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I think logistical considerations are not really relevant unless occur at the last moment. DV program takes about 10% consular load overall, and could be easily temporarily reallocated (like the number of interviews could be easily increased, consuls are readily available, if taken from other programs for 2 months)
 
kayend said:
What's puzzled me is that after 5 months progresses, all regions still consider slow based on the number of selectees this year. The only explanation is that the take-up rate is higher than anticipated by DOS. I am sure they based on previous years take up rate to decide the % of increased selectees in DV14.
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I think they are rather consistant with my predictions
 
IheartNY said:
No offense Mr Raevsky but I'm very much hoping that Britsimon's and Sloaner's predictions for Oceania end up playing out rather than yours!
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Reagrding discussions about quota, because Guatemala was the only country which status was changed in DV-14, quotas were channged by a small jump in SA (increased), AS and NA (decreased). EU, AF and OK were not changed by a jump. But OK and EU quota would be increased by a small jump in DV-15 because of Nigeria exclusion.
 
raevsky said:
I think logistical considerations are not really relevant unless occur at the last moment. DV program takes about 10% consular load overall, and could be easily temporarily reallocated (like the number of interviews could be easily increased, consuls are readily available, if taken from other programs for 2 months)
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I don't quite get what you mean? Are you saying when there is special cut off for Iran and Nepal, others Asian countries still progress the same as no special cut off in Asia? If Yes then why need a special cut off in the first place?
 
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