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January VB numbers released!!!

raevsky said:
Summary
1. Nepalese numbers do not show uniform distribution because of a reason.
2. If you cope with the reason, you see perfectly uniform distribution.
3. The reason is several people report the same number. Or the same person reports the same number from separatre accounts. Probably, the more close it is to the borderline, the more important it seems for a person to report the number several times.
4. By removing duplicates, you see a perfectly uniform distribution between 1 and 14740
5. Iranian numbers, provided by Sloner, are uniformly distributed between 1 and 8380, if you remove 3 largest numbers. They could be from iranians, chargeable to a different country, or from iranians living outside of iran.
5. Iranian quota is to be exhaused at about number 8380 plus/minus 380
6. Nepalese quota is to be exhausted at about number 11580 plus/minus 700, if Asian quota is not exhausted earlier. Most likely Nepalese quota will be exhausted first.
7. Asian quota is going to be exhausted most likely after nepalese quota, and before 15000.
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So you mean Asia can only progress up to 15k Max?
 
Are you staying this time? Do you feel that the numbers have progressed as you first thought?
 
kayend said:
So you mean Asia can only progress up to 15k Max?
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15k is hard limit for Asia, as I think. Most likely it will actually be lower.
Predicting for Asia is difficult because only 1000-3000 asian visas will not come fom nepal or iran, asian quota is not know for sure (out of 8000-10000 aian quota 7000 are iran with nepal), and there is threefold difference between 1000 and 3000.

Predicting for Africa is even harder because there are 4 special countries in Africa with unknow max number.

Predicting for Bahamas is difficult because the numbers are very volatile in small

Predicting for other regions is much more simple.
 
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mijoro said:
Are you staying this time? Do you feel that the numbers have progressed as you first thought?
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Most likely I will not stay. This forum has a lot of malware, my PC crashes when I work with it and my iPad does not work well with it - my posts are frequently lost
 
Iranian people claimed that they have all selectee (6k) below 9k and nepalese people claimed that half of the winners (3k) fall below 9k. Asia has other countries may have case numbers below 9k. Previous years record shows that there were 50% holes from Asia! is there null hole in dv 014 ? I could be wrong in mathematics!!!
 
raevsky said:
15k is hard limit for Asia, as I think. Most likely it will actually be lower.
Predicting for Asia is difficult because only 1000-3000 asian visas will not come fom nepal or iran, asian quota is not know for sure (out of 8000-10000 aian quota 7000 are iran with nepal), and there is threefold difference between 1000 and 3000.

Predicting for Africa is even harder because there are 4 special countries in Africa with unknow max number.

Predicting for Bahamas is difficult because the numbers are very volatile in small

Predicting for other regions is much more simple.
Click to expand...

Do you think Asia has any special cut off countries? Last year, Iran take last fiscal month to hit the country limit and based on what you said, Iran and Nepal created a lot of holes after 15k because the selection from those 2 countries disqualify immediately because it already have 6k+ selectees. If not, why Iran only exist in 8k case # and below.

Previously you predicted 18k and now reduced 3k for the hard limit, what make you change your prediction?
 
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vladek15425 said:
Urs is up to 40k ? Isn't it ?
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Yup. When I do the maths of how many visas are issued per 10K selectees and also look at the projection for how the quota will be divided I get to a range of around 36 to 38. However, there are various factors that could drive the number higher such as these:-

Possible cutoffs in some countries.
Countries that will have high numbers of abandoned entries or denied visas (because of the sort of fraud that Sloner showed)
Possible increase in EU share (if they push the speed for EU compared to other regions, particularly AF and AS region which are more complex to process)
Possible increase in global share due to unused NACARA allotment.

Basically, I combine those factors and allow more wiggle room than the math allows - and that is why I think the highest EU success will start with a 4.
 
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