January VB numbers released!!!

[Sloner]

There would not be special cutoff for Nepal because the case numbers of Nepal is uniformly distributed upto 13k, some claimed 14k, 15k n one claimed 22k. If all Iranian have CN below 9k there would be maximum probability for special cutoff!!!anyway, VB should increase as a speed of rabbit.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AuCeY-JSoQ0udDgwZFNhSmFGVkFnblV2Ql9pVHpvNEE#gid=0
to 10000 - 50%, 10000-135000 - 50%
Nepal will be cut from 8000-8500 and up to ~ 12000

post 995 12.12.2013 13:50 http://greencard.by/community/forum/forum33/topic5338/?PAGEN_1=50
to avoid misunderstandings

 

[dvbibasd]

my friend Britsimon, welcome back n I have one question for u: The sole aim of mine destination is usa, the land of opportunity. I have planned to go in usa for phd in civil engineering. but half on the way I m luckily/unluckily become a dv winner-014 having case number AS12***(Nepal)....From this equation, I wont get a chance till sep 014??? I heard....It is almost impossible even 2 get student visa of usa if I become unlucky from dv.... Is it real? I am in trouble n expect a logical answer!

 

[samolaniyi]

Thanks britsimon,now i'm current.

 

[Britsimon]

my friend Britsimon, welcome back n I have one question for u: The sole aim of mine destination is usa, the land of opportunity. I have planned to go in usa for phd in civil engineering. but half on the way I m luckily/unluckily become a dv winner-014 having case number AS12***(Nepal)....From this equation, I wont get a chance till sep 014??? I heard....It is almost impossible even 2 get student visa of usa if I become unlucky from dv.... Is it real? I am in trouble n expect a logical answer!

OK I wanted to give you a good answer, so I have done some research on Nepal.

The worry for a country is that no one country can receive more than 7% of the global quota visas in any year. The quota is 55,000 (reduced by up to 5000 visas for the NACARA program) We generally work off 50,000 available visas, but I actually think we will see nearly the whole 55,000 this year. So that means the country cutoff for any country is 3850 visas (including derivatives), and could be as low as 3500.

Nepal has 6082 selectees this year, with derivatives included. So the question is, how many of those will not take their chance by returning their forms or getting denied in the interview. So I looked at various countries and in particular Nepal. If you look at Nigeria in 2011 for instance they had 6000 selectees and only received 2810 visas. More than 50% of the selectees did not get a visa. However, if we look at Nepal for the same year you will see they had 2189 selectees and they received 2017 visas. An astonishingly HIGH success rate. The 2017 would have included some marriages and newborns not included in the original 2189 - but you can see the problem. So - of the 6082 selectees there can only be a maximum of 3850 visas and allowing for marriages and newborns that could mean that around 40% of Nepal candidates are above the 7% cutoff.

What Sloner is saying in his post above is that half of the Nepalese selectees have a number less than 10000. That is a guess based on the distribution he has documented in his spreadsheet. I think his guess is probably accurate. That means a cutoff for Nepal around 11k or 12k is very likely. You might just squeeze in but it is going to be very close. Unfortunately you are in a risky range - I'm sorry I wish I had better news - but I'm sure you would rather know the truth as I see it.

NOW - I could be wrong so I think you have no choice but wait and see, but at the same time you need a plan B.

The other thing is that they will probably slow down Nepal in the monthly VB. This is partly because there will be a lot of interviews and they won't be able to cope and it is partly because they will need to slow down the interviews as they near the country limit.

 

[c1984]

Thanks for the nice summary, Simon. I am not well-versed in the various available data sources. So all I can offer is some logical arguments.

I asked the question whether last year Iran reached the per country cap, and I think it was Susie that verified Iran reached the cap in mid-September. In the case of Iran, I expect this year that cap to be reached earlier in the year, so I support the proposition that Iran will receive a country-specific cut-off.

In the case of Nepal, we can again check whether last year the country-specific limit was reached at all. If not (I'm hoping somebody could verify this), then the additional selectees might just be absorbed in the unused gap that remained even until the end. So I still think it is likely that Nepal may not get a country-specific cut-off.


Again, assuming Asian regional quota didn't change.

 

[Britsimon]

Thanks for the nice summary, Simon. I am not well-versed in the various available data sources. So all I can offer is some logical arguments.

I asked the question whether last year Iran reached the per country cap, and I think it was Susie that verified Iran reached the cap in mid-September. In the case of Iran, I expect this year that cap to be reached earlier in the year, so I support the proposition that Iran will receive a country-specific cut-off.

In the case of Nepal, we can again check whether last year the country-specific limit was reached at all. If not (I'm hoping somebody could verify this), then the additional selectees might just be absorbed in the unused gap that remained even until the end. So I still think it is likely that Nepal may not get a country-specific cut-off.


Again, assuming Asian regional quota didn't change.

OK that is a good way to look at things. However, looking at Iran they have a lower success rate (selectee to visa approved) so 6000 selectees in both countries will yield dramatically different numbers of visas and this is the first year that Nepal has as many selectees as Iran.

Iran had these numbers for selectees

2011 - 2819 (yielding 2023 visas)
2012 - 4453 (crazy year - ignore the visas granted)
2013 - 6029 (hit a cutoff)
2014 - 6027

FYI the data all came from statistics available at the bottom of this USCIS page

http://travel.state.gov/visa/immigrants/types/types_1322.html

 

[Kayend]

Thanks for the nice summary, Simon. I am not well-versed in the various available data sources. So all I can offer is some logical arguments.

I asked the question whether last year Iran reached the per country cap, and I think it was Susie that verified Iran reached the cap in mid-September. In the case of Iran, I expect this year that cap to be reached earlier in the year, so I support the proposition that Iran will receive a country-specific cut-off.

In the case of Nepal, we can again check whether last year the country-specific limit was reached at all. If not (I'm hoping somebody could verify this), then the additional selectees might just be absorbed in the unused gap that remained even until the end. So I still think it is likely that Nepal may not get a country-specific cut-off.


Again, assuming Asian regional quota didn't change.

I think you are confused with special cut-off and country limit. Country limit means when a particular country reached its limit of 7% of the total DV visa available (50k to 55k). Special cut off means it need to put a particular country into a separate cut off from the regional cut off because there is not enough interview sessions to fulfill the selectees suppose to be current in a particular month.

Why Iran do not have special cut off but it reached it country limit in DV13?

1. Iran has 3 embassies that can be schedule for DV interview and;
2. The ratio of principal to derivative is lower in DV14 compare to DV13. In DV13, it has 16k selectees but only around 11k max case # (inclusive of holes) and in DV14, it has 23k selectees with 27k max case #. If we have the same percentage of holes as DV13, the only explanation is that the derivative ratio is lower in DV14.

 

[c1984]

I think you are confused with special cut-off and country limit. Country limit means when a particular country reached its limit of 7% of the total DV visa available (50k to 55k). Special cut off means it need to put a particular country into a separate cut off from the regional cut off because there is not enough interview sessions to fulfill the selectees suppose to be current in a particular month.

That's one reason. But the main reason is whether visas are available (or expected to be available) to the selectees from that country or not. If the country-specific 7% limit has reached or is very close, there's no point in telling the selectees from that country that they are current.

Let's say a country's case numbers are stretched from 0 to 20,000. Let's assume at case number 10,000 that country uses up (or is expected to use up) all their 7% visas. The regional quota may progress beyond 10,000 or 20,000 or even 80,000. But you can't tell a selectee from that country with a 20,000 case number that they are current, because there is no visa for them. So they set a country-specific cut-off at 10,000 and keep progressing the regional cut-off.

Why Iran do not have special cut off but it reached it country limit in DV13?

Because it happened in the last month. If they expected it to happen earlier, they would impose a country-specific cut-off even if the whole region was current.

1. Iran has 3 embassies that can be schedule for DV interview and;
2. The ratio of principal to derivative is lower in DV14 compare to DV13. In DV13, it has 16k selectees but only around 11k max case # (inclusive of holes) and in DV14, it has 23k selectees with 27k max case #. If we have the same percentage of holes as DV13, the only explanation is that the derivative ratio is lower in DV14.

I think an important factor to look at is the stretch of case numbers from Iran. This year we know it goes as high as 8K. But what was the range last year? I'm not surprised if it was higher than 8K. If you have more participants in the drawing (which I believe Iran did this year) you will reach the country limit of 7% earlier in the drawing. So although Iran has almost an identical number of selectees this year compared to last year, they may be concentrated in lower numbers this year. Hence, a higher chance they may use up their 7% visas earlier in the year and a need for country-specific cut-off.

By the way, I keep saying "they" when talking about Iran, but I myself am from Iran

 

[Kayend]

That's one reason. But the main reason is whether visas are available (or expected to be available) to the selectees from that country or not. If the country-specific 7% limit has reached or is very close, there's no point in telling the selectees from that country that they are current.

Let's say a country's case numbers are stretched from 0 to 20,000. Let's assume at case number 10,000 that country uses up (or is expected to use up) all their 7% visas. The regional quota may progress beyond 10,000 or 20,000 or even 80,000. But you can't tell a selectee from that country with a 20,000 case number that they are current, because there is no visa for them. So they set a country-specific cut-off at 10,000 and keep progressing the regional cut-off.



Because it happened in the last month. If they expected it to happen earlier, they would impose a country-specific cut-off even if the whole region was current.



I think an important factor to look at is the stretch of case numbers from Iran. This year we know it goes as high as 8K. But what was the range last year? I'm not surprised if it was higher than 8K. If you have more participants in the drawing (which I believe Iran did this year) you will reach the country limit of 7% earlier in the drawing. So although Iran has almost an identical number of selectees this year compared to last year, they may be concentrated in lower numbers this year. Hence, a higher chance they may use up their 7% visas earlier in the year and a need for country-specific cut-off.

By the way, I keep saying "they" when talking about Iran, but I myself am from Iran

The main reason for special cut-off is to avoid any bottleneck to the region progress. If certain country is slower due to logistic issue like not enough interview sessions for selectees that is suppose to be current, they will put into a separate queue. This is to make sure it able to reach its regional quota. Look at special cut-off from Africa and Europe in DV13, it has a special cut-off for certain countries but all countries are current at the end of the fiscal year. If based on what you said, if any country get a special cut-off it will not be current at the end of fiscal year. Just my thought, hope it make some sense.

 

[Britsimon]

The main reason for special cut-off is to avoid any bottleneck to the region progress. If certain country is slower due to logistic issue like not enough interview sessions for selectees that is suppose to be current, they will put into a separate queue. This is to make sure it able to reach its regional quota. Look at special cut-off from Africa and Europe in DV13, it has a special cut-off for certain countries but all countries are current at the end of the fiscal year. If based on what you said, if any country get a special cut-off it will not be current at the end of fiscal year. Just my thought, hope it make some sense.

I agree about the logistics point, but I think that second reason I described is also true. So you could see a country with a special cut off that then has the cutoff removed and later goes all current OR gets a cutoff again because they need to be careful not to exceed the country limit.

 

[Ayoub]

Cut off
there has been some discussion about special cut off number for Iran and Nepal. I have some idea about it:
1- It is a trivial assumption to assume that there are more Iranian or Nepalese in this or that range. As you all know , computer selects number based on random number generator program, which consequently result in a uniform distribution in all intervals. Furthermore, if there is a skew toward a specific region it is less than 5 percent.
2- For Iranian : last year Asia highest number which got GC was 10600(around) and Iran reached about 10 days earlier to its cut off, so it means that last year from 3900 Iranian , about 3500 has been accepted which is a very high acceptance rate, If we have similar acceptance rate for Iran in this year , it means that until 16000 there is no cut off for Iran.
3- For Nepal there are other factors like embassy capacity which may affect the cut off; otherwise I think special cut off for Nepal will be similar to Iran.

 

[Mijoro]

I wish I knew what the cut off point for Oceania will be? They would have country specific cut offs for us as well right?

 

[Britsimon]

I wish I knew what the cut off point for Oceania will be? They would have country specific cut offs for us as well right?

No - the 7% is a rule that applies to any country, globally. It is not an allocation, it is an absolute maximum that cannot be exceeded by any country but it does not mean that each country has some predetermined allocation.

 

[oskarson]

Thank you a lot friends for this discussion.I have a question that Almost 50% of nepalese case numbers falls above 9k.i have a sample of this here.i have put around 90 case numbers which i have collected from a facebook closed group,where more than 300 members are registered till this date and nature of every case numbers are like same as below.then still is there a chance of special cutoff for nepal in coming days??

38**
87**
3***
127***
12$$$
38**
91xx
4##
36**
48xx
12***
8***
11***
11***
12...
47##
78**
122**
10###
83##
12***
13***
65**
13,###
75**
11###
98**
84**
71**
17**
70**
11***
97**
13###
11###
124**
9#
102**
21**
12***
13k
5***
19**
132**
13###
21**
32**
13***
8***
66**
61**
70**
8***
9***
45**
127xx
52**
71**
13$$$
12***
8***
8***
97**
125**
15xx
12***
5***
39##
91xx
121xx
126##
2xxx.
12***
3***
10###
102**
13***
115**
88**
122**
113**
118**
144**
43**

 

[dolopar]

Hi c1984, i am from nepal and my case no is around 11***. And I know I too fall under the risk zone this year. Do you have any idea how the case no is distributed in Iran? or it is just an assumption that they are concentrated below 10k range. As for the Nepal, the distribution of case numbers are evenly distributed with probability of 50% above 9000,as posted by oskarson.

 

[Kayend]

I agree about the logistics point, but I think that second reason I described is also true. So you could see a country with a special cut off that then has the cutoff removed and later goes all current OR gets a cutoff again because they need to be careful not to exceed the country limit.

Yes, that's true. Special cut off or queue is use to put a particular country into a different progress from the regional one. And it can use it for any reason such as bottleneck and near country limit.

 

[Kayend]

Cut off
there has been some discussion about special cut off number for Iran and Nepal. I have some idea about it:
1- It is a trivial assumption to assume that there are more Iranian or Nepalese in this or that range. As you all know , computer selects number based on random number generator program, which consequently result in a uniform distribution in all intervals. Furthermore, if there is a skew toward a specific region it is less than 5 percent.
2- For Iranian : last year Asia highest number which got GC was 10600(around) and Iran reached about 10 days earlier to its cut off, so it means that last year from 3900 Iranian , about 3500 has been accepted which is a very high acceptance rate, If we have similar acceptance rate for Iran in this year , it means that until 16000 there is no cut off for Iran.
3- For Nepal there are other factors like embassy capacity which may affect the cut off; otherwise I think special cut off for Nepal will be similar to Iran.

I don't think the case # are distributed evenly. It's all depend on the selection from the regional pool. So, no guarantee it will be evenly distributed due to fairness of DV selection procedure.

 

[pollyannaguy]

OK I wanted to give you a good answer, so I have done some research on Nepal.

The worry for a country is that no one country can receive more than 7% of the global quota visas in any year. The quota is 55,000 (reduced by up to 5000 visas for the NACARA program) We generally work off 50,000 available visas, but I actually think we will see nearly the whole 55,000 this year. So that means the country cutoff for any country is 3850 visas (including derivatives), and could be as low as 3500.

Nepal has 6082 selectees this year, with derivatives included. So the question is, how many of those will not take their chance by returning their forms or getting denied in the interview. So I looked at various countries and in particular Nepal. If you look at Nigeria in 2011 for instance they had 6000 selectees and only received 2810 visas. More than 50% of the selectees did not get a visa. However, if we look at Nepal for the same year you will see they had 2189 selectees and they received 2017 visas. An astonishingly HIGH success rate. The 2017 would have included some marriages and newborns not included in the original 2189 - but you can see the problem. So - of the 6082 selectees there can only be a maximum of 3850 visas and allowing for marriages and newborns that could mean that around 40% of Nepal candidates are above the 7% cutoff.

What Sloner is saying in his post above is that half of the Nepalese selectees have a number less than 10000. That is a guess based on the distribution he has documented in his spreadsheet.
I think his guess is probably accurate. That means a cutoff for Nepal around 11k or 12k is very likely. You might just squeeze in but it is going to be very close. Unfortunately you are in a risky range - I'm sorry I wish I had better news - but I'm sure you would rather know the truth as I see it.

NOW - I could be wrong so I think you have no choice but wait and see, but at the same time you need a plan B.

The other thing is that they will probably slow down Nepal in the monthly VB. This is partly because there will be a lot of interviews and they won't be able to cope and it is partly because they will need to slow down the interviews as they near the country limit.[/QUOTE]

HI again..I just want to add one more thing here, based on the few previous post, it has been said that almost all of the iranian selectees have CN below 8-9K where iranian selectees are also in number of 6k. So how logical is it to say that half of the Nepalese CN are squezzed below 10k provided that there might also be selectee from other countries and holes too below 10k?

 

[raevsky]

Thank you a lot friends for this discussion.I have a question that Almost 50% of nepalese case numbers falls above 9k.i have a sample of this here.i have put around 90 case numbers which i have collected from a facebook closed group,where more than 300 members are registered till this date and nature of every case numbers are like same as below.then still is there a chance of special cutoff for nepal in coming days??

38**
87**
3***
127***
12$$$
38**
91xx
4##
36**
48xx
12***
8***
11***
11***
12...
47##
78**
122**
10###
83##
12***
13***
65**
13,###
75**
11###
98**
84**
71**
17**
70**
11***
97**
13###
11###
124**
9#
102**
21**
12***
13k
5***
19**
132**
13###
21**
32**
13***
8***
66**
61**
70**
8***
9***
45**
127xx
52**
71**
13$$$
12***
8***
8***
97**
125**
15xx
12***
5***
39##
91xx
121xx
126##
2xxx.
12***
3***
10###
102**
13***
115**
88**
122**
113**
118**
144**
43**

Summary
1. Nepalese numbers do not show uniform distribution because of a reason.
2. If you cope with the reason, you see perfectly uniform distribution.
3. The reason is several people report the same number. Or the same person reports the same number from separatre accounts. Probably, the more close it is to the borderline, the more important it seems for a person to report the number several times.
4. By removing duplicates, you see a perfectly uniform distribution between 1 and 14740
5. Iranian numbers, provided by Sloner, are uniformly distributed between 1 and 8380, if you remove 3 largest numbers. They could be from iranians, chargeable to a different country, or from iranians living outside of iran.
5. Iranian quota is to be exhaused at about number 8380 plus/minus 380
6. Nepalese quota is to be exhausted at about number 11580 plus/minus 700, if Asian quota is not exhausted earlier. Most likely Nepalese quota will be exhausted first.
7. Asian quota is going to be exhausted most likely after nepalese quota, and before 15000.

 

[raevsky]

NOW - I could be wrong so I think you have no choice but wait and see, but at the same time you need a plan B.

The other thing is that they will probably slow down Nepal in the monthly VB. This is partly because there will be a lot of interviews and they won't be able to cope and it is partly because they will need to slow down the interviews as they near the country limit.

HI again..I just want to add one more thing here, based on the few previous post, it has been said that almost all of the iranian selectees have CN below 8-9K where iranian selectees are also in number of 6k. So how logical is it to say that half of the Nepalese CN are squezzed below 10k provided that there might also be selectee from other countries and holes too below 10k?

As I said, some people reported their number several times. That is the reason. They consider their numbers of great importance and report them several times, or their numbers are also reported by their friends.