vladek15425
Well-Known Member
Raevsky :
What is your opinion ? Thanks
What is your opinion ? Thanks
For those that like to argue about statistics...
- Thread starter Britsimon
- Start date
vladek15425
Well-Known Member
Eu : has 46589 assuming that only each CN has a derivative +- and with
Some holes in between the CNs than everybody will get a visa !!!!!
Some holes in between the CNs than everybody will get a visa !!!!!
vladek15425
Well-Known Member
Simon it can't be including I'm sory if I'm keeping u awake late this time I'm shaking my self.
But taking extra 40k this year is including family is just an aberration in my
Understading ! I think they experiencing a new fiasco again ?????
But taking extra 40k this year is including family is just an aberration in my
Understading ! I think they experiencing a new fiasco again ?????
Rayme
Registered Users (C)
why we are still having discussion about the 140k includes derivatives or not??? ya it includes the derivatives... its confirmed...
Sloner
Active Member
The only correct idea. Therefore, in Asia in 2012 was CN 80,000. Therefore, in Europe now CN 60000
Semen. is the same as 2 +2 = 4 more holes, more numbers. Your predictions are meaningless. Why believe in them, if the evidence of absence.
Vladek, until DV2000 the limit was 55,000 visas. You say that КСС expects this amount. And again disagree, not all reach. Decide already.
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vladek15425
Well-Known Member
It doesn't say it inclunding I checked my self, and after
Recalculating I end up with result that says all the region will
Go current if its including !
SusieQQQ
Well-Known Member
It does include. I gave a link a while ago to DoS Q&A that clarifies that the number of selectees includes derivatives.
Rayme
Registered Users (C)
lets not complicate the simple thing so much yes the total selectee which is 140k includes derivatives and everyone here discussing about different cases of dv but no one noticed that how the initial data of 125k which KCC told during the may 1st selection changed to 140k if u ask my view there is nothing to do with extra selectee added so that it will fill quota or not but in my view its due from those initially selected members which are responsible may be number varied due to the reason that untill the data was puglish in september those who forward their cases with increase in family member might be new born baby newly married cases which caused the number of selectee to increase than that they had notified during the may 1st selection this my view i am not saying it is correct just an opinion
vladek15425
Well-Known Member
No rayme the new borns and thenew married ones are not included in the initial 140000,
That's was before we sent the forms...
Rayme
Registered Users (C)
I may be wrong but still iam thinking why did they change the number of selectee that they published on may 1st???????????????
Britsimon
Super Moderator
All the calculations you have seen are based on the assumption that it is including. Can you explain how your new method works that shows all go current?
Britsimon
Super Moderator
It can't be babies or marriages (that couldn't account for 15k) but we have never come up with a good explanation. Don't forget this was in the September bulletin - so that 140k was announced and detailed in mid August.
Rayme
Registered Users (C)
ya so we cannot still neglect my thinking also is it so simon?????
vladek15425
Well-Known Member
Ok simon take 61k selectees fro af incl derivatives:
Now out of this 61k minus:
-20% hole
-30% family numbers
-20% didn't send form back.
So how many real cases in there?
And if u still minus 30% failure rate (which is very probable) for AF than
It will go current !
This method can work on all the other regions + - the percentage !
Now out of this 61k minus:
-20% hole
-30% family numbers
-20% didn't send form back.
So how many real cases in there?
And if u still minus 30% failure rate (which is very probable) for AF than
It will go current !
This method can work on all the other regions + - the percentage !
vladek15425
Well-Known Member
My big point is including all gonna go current !
Excluding none will go current in september .
Excluding none will go current in september .
Britsimon
Super Moderator
The holes aren't in the 61k - the holes are the reason that the AF case numbers go up to 116k (at least).
The 61k is probably around 32 or 33k cases (based on the AF region typical derivatives.
However, the 50k limit is also INCLUDING derivatives, so when you get yours for instance the count will go down by 4. So - there will be about 23/24k visas available for 61/62k people.
Sorry Vladek. Back to the drawing board...
vladek15425
Well-Known Member
Yes your are right the hole are no more and 61k is a compact # .
I will check out my board again
Britsimon
Super Moderator
***** New Topic ******
By the way - I had a mini epiphany this morning about why they chose to increase to 140k.
I realised that everything they do is based on formulas. USCIS don't speculate well or use common sense. In a sense they are exactly like Sloner - i.e. not able to see what is obvious to everyone else - like a robot before AI. In the case of Sloner I think that is caused by Vodka. In the case of USCIS it is because there are rules and laws and a bunch of bureaucrats.
So anyway. I'll bet their bloody formulas tell them how many selectees they need based on historical performance. They would want to consider return rates and success rates etc and they would want to know those things for recent history. So someone probably made a rule that they would use the last completed lottery results and statistics as their guide. At the time they did the draw, that meant they would have used bloody 2012 - just like Sloner! Now when you use the success rate from 2012 you need 140k selectees to meet the quotas. My spreadsheet that shows 2011 - 2013 examples shows that by working backwards. They would have done a similar thing working forwards.
So - 2012 caused a lot of heartache and chaos before - and if I am right, its legacy is going to cause more heartache in 2014.
edit: sorry to Sloner for the Sloner comparisons - I couldn't resist!
By the way - I had a mini epiphany this morning about why they chose to increase to 140k.
I realised that everything they do is based on formulas. USCIS don't speculate well or use common sense. In a sense they are exactly like Sloner - i.e. not able to see what is obvious to everyone else - like a robot before AI. In the case of Sloner I think that is caused by Vodka. In the case of USCIS it is because there are rules and laws and a bunch of bureaucrats.
So anyway. I'll bet their bloody formulas tell them how many selectees they need based on historical performance. They would want to consider return rates and success rates etc and they would want to know those things for recent history. So someone probably made a rule that they would use the last completed lottery results and statistics as their guide. At the time they did the draw, that meant they would have used bloody 2012 - just like Sloner! Now when you use the success rate from 2012 you need 140k selectees to meet the quotas. My spreadsheet that shows 2011 - 2013 examples shows that by working backwards. They would have done a similar thing working forwards.
So - 2012 caused a lot of heartache and chaos before - and if I am right, its legacy is going to cause more heartache in 2014.
edit: sorry to Sloner for the Sloner comparisons - I couldn't resist!
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Is it new? That is exactly what I call Sloner axiom in action.