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For those that like to argue about statistics...

Sloner axiom lol good one
Ok simon take AF region
- 30% family numbers
- 30% failure rate
- 10% gave ups .
So every one will get interviewed. In AF ? Might even have some visas left over!!!!!
 
Semen, Africa will not get 23-24 thousand visas. There will be many failures. By the way, I do not drink vodka. Although I -25 outside. I prefer these cold days of hot tea or coffee.
Say you're a mediator? You begin to have considered the State Department for fools. I think what drank vodka you, not me.

Vladek, it may become current, but will there be enough visas for individual regions.
 
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Sloner said:
Semen, Africa will not get 23-24 thousand visas. There will be many failures. By the way, I do not drink vodka. Although I -25 outside. I prefer these cold days of hot tea or coffee.
Say you're a mediator? You begin to have considered the State Department for fools. I think what drank vodka you, not me.

Vladek, it may become current, but will there be enough visas for individual regions.
Click to expand...

Well if the numbers are including family than now I believe we all gonna be current !!!
 
Simon, How does this idea that you had/have reflect on numbers with in the Lottery Program. If what you are saying is correct, then how will we see that play ( hypothetically ) given the numbers you have posted can you see them being reduced dramatically?
 
rocky72 said:
Its true if 105000 sel. in 2013 didn't include family, otherwise it doesn't change anything , right?
Click to expand...

It did include family.

So the question is, for everyone to be current we must believe that almost two-thirds of selectees either do not pursue their case or get denied. Is there historical precedent (I am obviously not taking 2012 into account) for this magnitude?
 
rocky72 said:
Its true if 105000 sel. in 2013 didn't include family, otherwise it doesn't change anything , right?
Click to expand...
According to simon even 2013 included family members in 105000
So my theory is : because its including, and because of the high failure rate especialy in AF
And the the ones that didn't process their forms... All the regions went current
And they even had visas left that's why they dug in the AP and try to fill up as much as they can!
Prove is we saw some AP getting visas granted in the last week of september 2013
Even on the last day never mind.
Soso now they took extra marge of 40k selectees to play it safe and imo its still
Gonna go current for all in dv 14.
 
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mijoro said:
Simon, How does this idea that you had/have reflect on numbers with in the Lottery Program. If what you are saying is correct, then how will we see that play ( hypothetically ) given the numbers you have posted can you see them being reduced dramatically?
Click to expand...

It doesn't affect my earlier calculations Mijoro - I stand by those calculations. This post from earlier (what Raevsky describes as the Sloner Axiom) just tells me WHY they chose to increase by 35%. I had suspicions, but if you look at how I calculated the 2012 numbers you can see exactly why they chose to increase to that amount.
 
SusieQQQ said:
It did include family.

So the question is, for everyone to be current we must believe that almost two-thirds of selectees either do not pursue their case or get denied. Is there historical precedent (I am obviously not taking 2012 into account) for this magnitude?
Click to expand...

No there is not, certainly not in recent years - ONLY 2012.

Oh and yeah - the numbers for selectees have always included family.
 
sloner said:
semen, africa will not get 23-24 thousand visas. There will be many failures. By the way, i do not drink vodka. Although i -25 outside. I prefer these cold days of hot tea or coffee.
Say you're a mediator? You begin to have considered the state department for fools. I think what drank vodka you, not me.

Vladek, it may become current, but will there be enough visas for individual regions.
Click to expand...

lol!
 
britsimon said:
It doesn't affect my earlier calculations Mijoro - I stand by those calculations. This post from earlier (what Raevsky describes as the Sloner Axiom) just tells me WHY they chose to increase by 35%. I had suspicions, but if you look at how I calculated the 2012 numbers you can see exactly why they chose to increase to that amount.
Click to expand...

But simon thay didn't only inject 35% extra this just because of dv 12! Its also because of dv 13 !
Because dv12 is completly corrupted (software stuff up) they didn't choose to take extra because now the software work 100% in dv 13.
So for me the extra 40k is to fillup quotas. Not to prevent an other fiasco? Isn't it?
 
vladek15425 said:
According to simon even 2013 included family members in 105000
So my theory is : because its including, and because of the high failure rate especialy in AF
And the the ones that didn't process their forms... All the regions went current
And they even had visas left that's why they dug in the AP and try to fill up as much as they can!
Prove is we saw some AP getting visas granted in the last week of september 2013
Even on the last day never mind.
Soso now they took extra marge of 40k selectees to play it safe and imo its still
Gonna go current for all in dv 14.
Click to expand...

In DV 13 it had around 105k selectees + 5k selectees and it still cannot fulfill its quota. You are right, in Sept 13 a lot of AP get their visas, so one reason could be trying to fulfill its quota. So in DV14, it selected 140k selectees, I think this is still more than enough so i don't see any region is going current in DV14 if we used the same pattern and movement of DV13. One more point, country like Sri Lanka, they have out their education requirement from O level to A Level, so I think they might put more stringent requirements in other countries in DV14, so this could be the reason it increased 15k more from the initially plan of 125k selectees.
 
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