• Hello Members, This forums is for DV lottery visas only. For other immigration related questions, please go to our forums home page, find the related forum and post it there.

For those that like to argue about statistics...

britsimon said:
No there is not, certainly not in recent years - ONLY 2012.

Oh and yeah - the numbers for selectees have always included family.
Click to expand...

Simon if all region go current means there is enough visas(even wasted visas) to cover all the rest of the candidate so for them all the years when it went current its a fiasco !
 
vladek15425 said:
According to simon even 2013 included family members in 105000
So my theory is : because its including, and because of the high failure rate especialy in AF
And the the ones that didn't process their forms... All the regions went current
And they even had visas left that's why they dug in the AP and try to fill up as much as they can!
Prove is we saw some AP getting visas granted in the last week of september 2013
Even on the last day never mind.
Soso now they took extra marge of 40k selectees to play it safe and imo its still
Gonna go current for all in dv 14.
Click to expand...


Sorry buddy, I can't see why you are getting excited!

Yes it is correct that the 105 in DV2013 included family members.
Everone went current except Iran that had a cutoff in mid September.
The CEAC data shows AF got 21k and globally the CEAC data shows 45k visas issued. However, missing data and aos will mean that number, when reported will rise to above 50k (similar to 2010 and 2011). So in the end AF will get about 23K visas, perhaps 24k. AF had 50k selectees - so it success rate is just under 50%. Remember, the success rate already accounts for the failure rate, family and give ups.

SO - in DV2014 it is easy to imagine that the demand from 62k selectees for AF will be 29/30k - which is 6/7k more than their quota.

In my opinion, AF won't go current and many people will be disappointed. Same story in all regions apart from (just maybe) OC.
 
vladek15425 said:
But simon thay didn't only inject 35% extra this just because of dv 12! Its also because of dv 13 !
Because dv12 is completly corrupted (software stuff up) they didn't choose to take extra because now the software work 100% in dv 13.
So for me the extra 40k is to fillup quotas. Not to prevent an other fiasco? Isn't it?
Click to expand...

No I think it was PURELY to do with the formula applied based on 2012 results.

FYI, the comment about they chose this many selectees to insure they fll the quote - that is always on the press release and probably on the letters. Here for example is what it said in 2011.

Since it is likely that some of the first *50,000 persons registered will not pursue their cases to visa issuance, this larger figure should insure that all DV-2011 numbers will be used during fiscal year 2011 (October 1, 2010 until September 30, 2011).
 
vladek15425 said:
Simon ;
beside dv succes rate, can get hold of the failure rate and
The gave ups rate numbers in dv11 ?
Click to expand...

No - I don't have the data split out (like we do in 2013 because of the CEAC data). However, if 100 selectees go in the top of the DV mixer, and 50 drop out the bottom with visas, the 50 that got lost includes give ups, no shows, AP that never finish and denials.
 
vladek15425 said:
All the previous year when it all went current !
Click to expand...

I disagree, because there are about 40% more selectees this time - you can't just say because previous years went current the same % dropped out along the way. In fact if the same percentage had dropped out along the way last year there would only have been about 40k visas issued. You're also ignoring the early to mid-2000s when there were less selectees but a number of years when all regions did not go current.
 
How is it that people can look at the same figures and see two totally differing results.

Rav has given what some consider to be very pessimistic numbers.
Simon you seem to have given solid numbers, cautious but optimistic.
Sloner, or Santa Sloner who thinks that almost everyone will go current ( or has that changed).

It will be interesting to see how it all pans out in the end. One thing I think that I would like to say is that I hope no one missed out because when the numbers were first released, Rav made a point of telling people not to bother submitting their forms to the KCC as they would never make it to interview. While I understand that me being an OC 2k selectee is in the danger zone I am happy I didnt take that particular advice. Just the same as people who are making no other plans based on Sloners everyones getting a visa claim I hope they take his advice with a grain of salt also.
 
mijoro said:
How is it that people can look at the same figures and see two totally differing results.

Rav has given what some consider to be very pessimistic numbers.
Simon you seem to have given solid numbers, cautious but optimistic.
Sloner, or Santa Sloner who thinks that almost everyone will go current ( or has that changed).

It will be interesting to see how it all pans out in the end. One thing I think that I would like to say is that I hope no one missed out because when the numbers were first released, Rav made a point of telling people not to bother submitting their forms to the KCC as they would never make it to interview. While I understand that me being an OC 2k selectee is in the danger zone I am happy I didnt take that particular advice. Just the same as people who are making no other plans based on Sloners everyones getting a visa claim I hope they take his advice with a grain of salt also.
Click to expand...


Yeah you are right to point out the advice in both camps could be problematic. I am happy to occupy that middle ground.

I should point out, I have only been thinking and posting about the DV process since about May 1 this year - so I don't have the years of experience that Raevsky has. I used to be (and still am) nervous at getting to conclusions that contradict Raevskys numbers. Indeed I have done calculations that come out as pessimistic as Raevsky - however I have chosen to ignore them and look for other methods.

As for Sloner, well he is blinded by 2012 and the new software. I enjoy his posts and character, but I think he is not at all correct in his calculations - even though I would love to be in the happy Santa Sloner camp.
 
As for Sloner, well he is blinded by 2012 and the new software. I enjoy his posts and character, but I think he is not at all correct in his calculations - even though I would love to be in the happy Santa Sloner camp.
Click to expand...
why is not correct? I cited the exact calculations. Again you continue to ignore them. You are all my calculations ignore. By the way I'm the only one who was able to accurately predict the 8000 figure in Europe in June.
While continuing to whine and further elevating Africa. You can move there. There crocodiles, elephants, monkeys, lions and snakes.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Sloner said:
why is not correct? I cited the exact calculations. Again you continue to ignore them. You are all my calculations ignore. By the way I'm the only one who was able to accurately predict the 8000 figure in Europe in June.
While continuing to whine and further elevating Africa. You can move there. There crocodiles, elephants, monkeys, lions and snakes.
Click to expand...


LOLOLOL. Very good Sloner.

About your calculations, I didn't ignore them at all. I studied them properly and decided they were based on your misconception and therefore wrong. Quite wrong. As for the 8000 in June, that may be correct, but as I pointed out, you have been getting pregressively more wrong - and will as time goes on. Anyway, even a broken clock is correct twice a day - which is about how accurate your calculations are. That isn't to say I don't like you though - I think you are really fun. Just not someone I would want doing my accounts.
 
Can anyone please say what will be the fate of asia....??? That valdek calculations are baseless how can it be 7000... I still think asia will get around 10k visas
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top