vladek15425
Well-Known Member
Ok check this out :
AF 62000 - 30% didn't proceed with forms to kcc remeber= 43400 -
45% failures and didnshow up to interview
= 23870
Its all because it includes family members
For those that like to argue about statistics...
- Thread starter Britsimon
- Start date
Ok check this out :
AF 62000 - 30% didn't proceed with forms to kcc remeber= 43400 -
45% failures and didnshow up to interview
= 23870
Its all because it includes family members
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Dude, where are you getting those numbers from?
vladek15425
Well-Known Member
Remeber we all guessing lol
My guess about 30 don't follow up is about most africain countrie they do not
Have the means to check and understand the dv process technology not available
As in eu !
Now failure rate we all now + - fraud, doc missing, false declaration, ext ..
Oh yeah and I read on kennyan thread that they highered the level of the high
School diploma ...
So I predicted those numbers
Just an opinion remeber
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Remeber we all guessing lol
My guess about 30 don't follow up is about most africain countrie they do not
Have the means to check and understand the dv process technology not available
As in eu !
Now failure rate we all now + - fraud, doc missing, false declaration, ext ..
Oh yeah and I read on kennyan thread that they highered the level of the high
School diploma ...
So I predicted those numbers
Just an opinion remeber
OK - well you end up with a 38% success rate whereas 2011 was 47%. You have a point about Kenya BUT Kenya only represents 7% of the AF selectees. There will be other changes too such as the perceived "attraction" of the USA now compared to 2011 - and something like that could decrease the don't bother rate.
So - thanks for explaining your method, but I don't think I'll be buying the beers...
vladek15425
Well-Known Member
OK - well you end up with a 38% success rate whereas 2011 was 47%. You have a point about Kenya BUT Kenya only represents 7% of the AF selectees. There will be other changes too such as the perceived "attraction" of the USA now compared to 2011 - and something like that could decrease the don't bother rate.
So - thanks for explaining your method, but I don't think I'll be buying the beers...
Ok simon the beers is on me
But what about asia rayme is all sad about my estimation for asia, I mean
Looking at the cut offs we can see all the region are respacting the ''normal''
Pace, but asia ones are scary I don't know what's going on in there!
In asia doesn't experience a double big jump there will a tsunami in there
?For all if we compare to 2011 dv.
Last edited by a moderator:
SusieQQQ
Well-Known Member
Africa has the highest fallout rate as we know, and even on your numbers that was a final fallout rate of 61.5%, less than what you would have to assume for the entire DV selectees across the world this year to make it to all current...
Sloner
Active Member
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G-tLvLz-xSU
Vladek, right thinking. More wins, more refusal of visas..
Kayend
Active Member
Ok simon the beers is on me
But what about asia rayme is all sad about my estimation for asia, I mean
Looking at the cut offs we can see all the region are respacting the ''normal''
Pace, but asia ones are scary I don't know what's going on in there!
In asia doesn't experience a double big jump there will a tsunami in there
For all if we compare to 2011 dv.
Yes, Asia progress is much slower than expected. If you look at the Ankara embassy web site it still list AS27 as interview in Jan 14 which is suppose to be in Oct 13. So something much be blocking the usual progress. Will know more next VB.
Or AS27 checked only his status and sent his forms to KCC late in November and was scheduled an interview in January.
When comparing the number of interviews with last year dv13 in Ankara, it seems there are less people interviewed this year, while the monthly cutoffs are higher vs. last year. This can be a good sign for high CN numbers in Turkey.
vladek15425
Well-Known Member
r I'm actualy just envisaging all the eventualities ! Not that I'm sure about it !https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G-tLvLz-xSU
Vladek, right thinking. More wins, more refusal of visas..
Ok sloner that was a good goal
vladek15425
Well-Known Member
Is it the only low case or is there more similar numers like as 27?
Not for Ankara but it is available for Varsaw. You just type the month and year in the http address. It is case sensitive, so you need to put a capital letter for the first letter of the month.
Kayend
Active Member
Yes, I think there is 3 case # in Jan interviews in Ankara is less than 100.
Situation with AS numbers in Ankara is different (from Warsaw). They assign Iran to 3 consulates - Ankara, Yerevan and Abu Dabi. They do it in chunks, so this month they could assign almost everybody from Iran to one consulate, and next month almost everybody to another consulate. That happens every year. That has nothing to do with Sloner effect. You cannot expect AS interviews in Ankara to go smoothly - that is Iranian effect. You could expect the sum of AS numbers in all 3 consulates to go smoothly only, but we do not have schedule for the other 2 consulates from the group.
But, for instance, EU numbers in Ankara are not affected by Iranian effect.
But, for instance, EU numbers in Ankara are not affected by Iranian effect.
Last edited by a moderator:
For Ankara, the only data you can retrieve are from CEAC database
Agreed for AS. I forgot there were other consulates processing Iran.
It seems there are less EU interviews in Warsaw. Do you think it is a good sign, or pretty much irrelevant because not significant enough on a statistical standpoint?
And that's only for dv13 (unfortunately).