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For those that like to argue about statistics...

vladek15425 said:
32 % is a very acceptabale probability for me for eu.
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Yes. There were years when EU got more than 40%, and this is because they got unused visas by other regions, mainly from Africa.

Recent years (except dv12) show now AF uses most of all its available visas. So EU should get only the approx. 32% in dv14, and AF slighlty below 50%.
 
What is puzzling is that EU does not go that faster than in dv10 and dv11. And the cutoff stopped in the low 30ks those years.
 
House409 said:
But there are 35% more selectees in dv14 vs. dv13, with almost 75% more registrered cn numbers (for eu for instance jumping from mid 30k to 53-54k). That must be more holes, right? And those holes are rejected entries, due to a higher level of fraud, or more frauds being detected. I am just trying to make sense of those figures.
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Honestly I doubt that eu will have a lot of holes , but 32% visas succes, will occur IMO,
Now we all know that they took more selectees this year, that's why I doubt that eu wil go current .
The high cn # will be desapointed :(
 
Has someone got a quick link to a list of each years selectees per region per year that they can post here.
 
Indeed this thread is the best to argue and I'm about to
Launch a new argument a hard one !
But now this my predictions just for the record:
Af: 22500-24000
Eu: 17000-19000
As: 7500-8500
Sa:1400-1700
Oc:1200-1400
U guys will notice that I knoked as region its because of the very slow cut off that that same region is experiencing !
 
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Sloner :
After sobering up tell me how do u still predict 18000-20000 for af
Knowing that they usually take up to 50% of the visas !
Not that ing side coz I'm af my self ! Coz its every one own battle through the dv!
But you are defintly biased over eu ! We all know it lol
 
Simon I'm begging u to give me the number of all the regions selectees
Including derivatives for 2014dv?
I think we gonna argue about it !
 
Not that I'm giving late home work simon, but iwanna work out something
And I'm stuck ! It can be for tomorrow if u not in mood :)
 
I sumed all the regions with a little tiny calculator late this time numbers are very arguable:
But its more or less this :
According to uscis link.
Af: 60816
Eu: 46634
As: 22667
Sa:4620
Oc:4215
Na:23
Total: 138975
I'm sure I missed up some where somehow coz uscis # says aproximatively 140660

But anyway I came to a conculsion that this # of selectees doesn't inclued
The derivatives !????????
Any opinion ?
 
britsimon said:
Oh I see - sure - here ya go.

Af - 61942
Eu - 46589
As - 23270
Sa - 4620
OC - 4215


Those numbers are also in my spreadsheet as the basis of the calculations...
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Thanks simon as I see I did missed up a bit on suming up the countries region
Sory for keeping u awake :( but I'm having a sirious doubt about the family # inculded !
That's why I work this # out !
 
vladek15425 said:
Thanks simon as I see I did missed up a bit on suming up the countries region
Sory for keeping u awake :( but I'm having a sirious doubt about the family # inculded !
That's why I work this # out !
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Yeah we have had the "are derivatives included" argument. They are. Really.
 
Btw simon your numbers are more solid I get 140659 when iadd 23 from na :)
But still I'm throwing a bet in here ! Its not including?
 
vladek15425 said:
Btw simon your numbers are more solid I get 140659 when iadd 23 from na :)
But still I'm throwing a bet in here ! Its not including?
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OK, if you check the CEAC data (which is missing some as we know ) you can find most of the winners and family for 2013 right there - fitting nicely into the published numbers for selectees in 2013. There are other ways to prove it too - but the CEAC data is most obvious and revealing.
 
britsimon said:
Yeah we have had the "are derivatives included" argument. They are. Really.
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BIG doubt ! AF selectees with 61xxx is just not acceptable my self I'm aplying with 4 and if u consider it again
Af are very prolifique :) if u just assume 1 selectee af with 1 family # u already split it the
# in half u get about 35000 real cases in af ! I just can't admit it !
 
britsimon said:
OK, if you check the CEAC data (which is missing some as we know ) you can find most of the winners and family for 2013 right there - fitting nicely into the published numbers for selectees in 2013. There are other ways to prove it too - but the CEAC data is most obvious and revealing.
Click to expand...

Than u will have to forward me some ceac data # . And remeber its caec data has some lacking
Point so ...! We will argue abt it !
 
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