For those that like to argue about statistics...

[House409]

Let's not. Why spoil approval Semen. Africa has always dominated.
DV-1995 DV-1996 DV-1997 DV-1998 DV-1999
Region
Africa 20.200 20.426 20.623 21.179 21.409
Asia 6.837 7.087 7.187 7.280 7.254
Europa 24.549 24.257 23.910 23.213 23.024
NA 8 8 8 8 8
SA 2.589 2.407 2.455 2.476 2.468
OC 817 815 817 844 837

Africa has more available visas because the Africans make the majority of the low admission regions

 

[Britsimon]

Let's not. Why spoil approval Semen. Africa has always dominated.
DV-1995 DV-1996 DV-1997 DV-1998 DV-1999
Region
Africa 20.200 20.426 20.623 21.179 21.409
Asia 6.837 7.087 7.187 7.280 7.254
Europa 24.549 24.257 23.910 23.213 23.024
NA 8 8 8 8 8
SA 2.589 2.407 2.455 2.476 2.468
OC 817 815 817 844 837

DV1 was about 90% EU. This change over time, but what doesn't happen is a 20% or 25% reduction in one year - as you are suggesting - UNLESS there is something really odd like 2012.

 

[rocky72]

House409;2670436]I guess the answer to my question is just below

looks you are right , but there are still lot of question remained..

 

[House409]

looks you are right , but there are still lot of question remained..

Yep. One year is different from another. Not sure we can apply to dv14 what happened 10 years ago.

One sure thing is they have changed the way they notify people, by letting them only consult the ESC website. No more NL are sent by conventional mail. This makes a difference also in the drop off rate.

 

[Sloner]

DV1 was about 90% EU. This change over time, but what doesn't happen is a 20% or 25% reduction in one year - as you are suggesting - UNLESS there is something really odd like 2012.

I suggest the average between 1995-2014. I'm not saying that Europe will get 25,000 visas.

 

[Britsimon]

I suggest the average between 1995-2014. I'm not saying that Europe will get 25,000 visas.

But you are suggesting that AF are gong from 24k down to 18k in one year.

 

[Sloner]

Since 2003, the KCC introduced electronic application and began to use special software to detect multiple applications . Then the staff full-time KCC has adopted a special manager , whose responsibilities included since only the development of methods to combat fraud .

However, once it did not solve the problems with Froud .
Ease of completing and submitting the application ( directly on the site of the State Department ) , together with otnostitelno undeveloped access to the Internet at the level of individual families , boom spawned the so-called " business consultants of Visa and visa agencies ."
In 2007, the U.S. government report KCC noted that in some countries , such as Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Ghana , Nepal, Nigeria and Ukraine , the boom has reached alarming proportions - advertising agencies placed even on billboards along the roads.

Therefore, it was a small number of visas issued in 2007,2012.
Fight against fraud.

 

[Sloner]

But you are suggesting that AF are gong from 24k down to 18k in one year. .

In 2012 to 13000

 

[Mijoro]

In 2012 to 13000

Bloody 2012 again, give it up sloner

 

[Sloner]

Bloody 2012 again, give it up sloner

Yes, a lot of Froud detected in Africa. Dealing with fraudsters goes on all fronts

 

[Britsimon]

Since 2003, the KCC introduced electronic application and began to use special software to detect multiple applications . Then the staff full-time KCC has adopted a special manager , whose responsibilities included since only the development of methods to combat fraud .

However, once it did not solve the problems with Froud .
Ease of completing and submitting the application ( directly on the site of the State Department ) , together with otnostitelno undeveloped access to the Internet at the level of individual families , boom spawned the so-called " business consultants of Visa and visa agencies ."
In 2007, the U.S. government report KCC noted that in some countries , such as Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Ghana , Nepal, Nigeria and Ukraine , the boom has reached alarming proportions - advertising agencies placed even on billboards along the roads.

Therefore, it was a small number of visas issued in 2007,2012.
Fight against fraud.

You are making no sense. Your position to now has been the new software affected the lottery. However that cannot explain 2007 and why that wasnt an issue between 2007 and 2012. However the lower number of selectees ( exactly in proportion with visas issued) does explain 2007 very well.

 

[Sloner]

You are making no sense. Your position to now has been the new software affected the lottery. However that cannot explain 2007 and why that wasnt an issue between 2007 and 2012. However the lower number of selectees ( exactly in proportion with visas issued) does explain 2007 very well.

I am not the manager of the Anti-Fraud. I can not know what they were doing. General information published reports. I gave a link to them.
And you do not know this. Why did you miss these facts? At every step KCC warns of scams. 54 staff working in the department. They should also work.

 

[Britsimon]

I am not the manager of the Anti-Fraud. I can not know what they were doing. General information published reports. I gave a link to them.
And you do not know this. Why did you miss these facts? At every step KCC warns of scams. 54 staff working in the department. They should also work.

Well look Sloner, anyone reading through everyones theories will have formed their own opinion by now. I cannot imagine anyone agreeing with your theory but that is fine - none of us know for sure what will happen. Unfortunately, it will be a long time before we have CEAC data or reports to show whose theories were incorrect, but time will tell.

 

[House409]

Well look Sloner, anyone reading through everyones theories will have formed their own opinion by now. I cannot imagine anyone agreeing with your theory but that is fine - none of us know for sure what will happen. Unfortunately, it will be a long time before we have CEAC data or reports to show whose theories were incorrect, but time will tell.

Should we understand that in some year a high level of fraud led to more holes between consecutive winning CN numbers? And this level of fraud is not repeatable from one year to another. More billboards on the road, higher the registrered CN numbers? Is that what you meant Sloner?

 

[Britsimon]

Should we understand that in some year a high level of fraud led to more holes between consecutive winning CN numbers? And this level of fraud is not repeatable from one year to another. More billboards on the road, higher the registrered CN numbers? Is that what you meant Sloner?

But since we are using selectees (not case numbers) for calculations the holes do not matter.

Obviously it becomes tricky when trying to advise someone about case numbers, but that is something else....

 

[vladek15425]

I'm back .
Sloner you wrote your self ;
DV-1995 DV-1996DV-1997DV-1998DV-1999
Region
Africa 20.20020.42620.62321.17921.409
And you still say africa will get about 18000!!!!!!!

 

[vladek15425]

Since 2003, the KCC introduced electronic application and began to use special software to detect multiple applications . Then the staff full-time KCC has adopted a special manager , whose responsibilities included since only the development of methods to combat fraud .

However, once it did not solve the problems with Froud .
Ease of completing and submitting the application ( directly on the site of the State Department ) , together with otnostitelno undeveloped access to the Internet at the level of individual families , boom spawned the so-called " business consultants of Visa and visa agencies ."
In 2007, the U.S. government report KCC noted that in some countries , such as Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Ghana , Nepal, Nigeria and Ukraine , the boom has reached alarming proportions - advertising agencies placed even on billboards along the roads.

Therefore, it was a small number of visas issued in 2007,2012.
Fight against fraud.

We all know that there is lot of fraud in AF that's why they also take high number of selectees to fill up the af quota ! And it will be still over 20000 !

 

[vladek15425]

It just follows the calculation formula of INA 203 (c). I made once the calcs myself and ended up with 32% for the EU region

32 % is a very acceptabale probability for me for eu.

 

[House409]

But since we are using selectees (not case numbers) for calculations the holes do not matter.

Obviously it becomes tricky when trying to advise someone about case numbers, but that is something else....

But there are 35% more selectees in dv14 vs. dv13, with almost 75% more registrered cn numbers (for eu for instance jumping from mid 30k to 53-54k). That must be more holes, right? And those holes are rejected entries, due to a higher level of fraud, or more frauds being detected. I am just trying to make sense of those figures.

 

[Britsimon]

But there are 35% more selectees in dv14 vs. dv13, with almost 75% more registrered cn numbers (for eu for instance jumping from mid 30k to 53-54k). That must be more holes, right? And those holes are rejected entries, due to a higher level of fraud, or more frauds being detected. I am just trying to make sense of those figures.

Yes I think that is right. The increased number of holes should mean the CNs move faster, but actually, up to now only EU seems to be going faster (and to some extent SA).