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For those that like to argue about statistics...

By the way, just to prove I am listening Sloners theory is this.

He believes new software was used in 2012. (That is true)
He believes that the new software was not used in 2013 (I think so too).
He believes the new software is being used in 2014 (Again, I think that is correct).
He believes the new software and NOT the redraw was the reason for the shortfall in 2012. (I don't agree).
He believes that AF region was most heavily impacted by the new software, so the low relative success rate in AF should translate to 2014. (Nope - I don't think so).

Based on that and the smaller impact that the redraw had in other regions Sloner is suggesting the success rates in 2012 will be repeated in 2014. My numbers in the spreadsheet shows what would happen if that were the case - basically everyone gets a visa. However, I don't think that is true at all - as much as I wish it to be so.
 
rocky72 said:
you are right.
i just would add , that even you , with your 31K ,which seems safe enough ,shouldn't " put all your hopes and dreams into this thing"
Look ...
in 2004-2005 , EU got 21721 and 19330 visas , that is more then ever in past 10 years , right?
but cut-offs for those years for EU ended just at 28,700 and 20,500 in Septembers.

everything may happen ,
if quota for EU is just 16K , then even last cases of third decade are under the risk ..
and meanwhile ,i won't be too surprised, if even 50-ies will go to interview
Nobody really knows what KFC keeps in its mind.
Click to expand...

Yes agreed. Raevsky has produced estimates in the past that show even early 30's EU numbers are risky - and I understand why he is saying that. However, I'm fine, I have the H1 now and my brother is a US citizen, so I have a path to LPR even without the DV.
 
rocky72 said:
you are right.
i just would add , that even you , with your 31K ,which seems safe enough ,shouldn't " put all your hopes and dreams into this thing"
Look ...
in 2004-2005 , EU got 21721 and 19330 visas , that is more then ever in past 10 years , right?
but cut-offs for those years for EU ended just at 28,700 and 20,500 in Septembers.

everything may happen ,
if quota for EU is just 16K , then even last cases of third decade are under the risk ..
and meanwhile ,i won't be too surprised, if even 50-ies will go to interview
Nobody really knows what KFC keeps in its mind.
Click to expand...

They usually keep chickens in mind :rolleyes:
 
britsimon said:
By the way, just to prove I am listening Sloners theory is this.

He believes new software was used in 2012. (That is true)
He believes that the new software was not used in 2013 (I think so too).
He believes the new software is being used in 2014 (Again, I think that is correct).
He believes the new software and NOT the redraw was the reason for the shortfall in 2012. (I don't agree).
He believes that AF region was most heavily impacted by the new software, so the low relative success rate in AF should translate to 2014. (Nope - I don't think so).

Based on that and the smaller impact that the redraw had in other regions Sloner is suggesting the success rates in 2012 will be repeated in 2014. My numbers in the spreadsheet shows what would happen if that were the case - basically everyone gets a visa. However, I don't think that is true at all - as much as I wish it to be so.
Click to expand...

What would be the feature this new software would make the random selection that different? or is it just different in rejecting fradulent entries compared to previous software?
 
britsimon said:
Yes agreed. Raevsky has produced estimates in the past that show even early 30's EU numbers are risky - and I understand why he is saying that. However, I'm fine, I have the H1 now and my brother is a US citizen, so I have a path to LPR even without the DV.
Click to expand...
Simon , that is not question about you or me (by the way i have E-2 , do you know what is it?)
I would like to say , that nobody should "put all their hopes and dreams into this thing" at all.
Sloner sure that higer numbers will get to the final , raevsky is sure that they won't . My opinion is , that both of them are wrong in their sureness.
We dont know how many people sent their forms to KFC , we dont know where are those holes in range between 1-54K , we dont know what is the quota for regions in 2014.we dont know final results for 2013.
assuming all this missing facts i can say ,that the only thing we could be sure ,that there is no anything to be quite sure at all.
 
House409 said:
What would be the feature this new software would make the random selection that different? or is it just different in rejecting fradulent entries compared to previous software?
Click to expand...

The software implements the selection, itself, it cuts certain countries off at around 6000 selectees, it performs the numbering and disqualifies entries considered duplicates. It also flags some entries as needing human review. So the improvements in the software could impact the number of holes...
 
OK - thanks - if it cuts off certain countries, would that mean there are more holes in the high CN range, inflating de facto the max CN number?
 
House409 said:
OK - thanks - if it cuts off certain countries, would that mean there are more holes in the high CN range, inflating de facto the max CN number?
Click to expand...

I don't think we know for sure when in the process they cut the countries out. If they gave everyone numbers and then disqualified the high entry countries then yes that would have an impact on the holes. However, I don't believe that is what happens. I think the order is:

1. Select randomly (within the region)
2. Pick the selectees one by one, and note the countries of each winner. Stop taking winners from countries when 6000 is hit.
3. Assign the case number
4. Go through and disqualify the duplicate/fraud entries (this step produces the holes)
 
LOL - yes that would absolutely explain it. I've never been worried about 2007 because it was a clear progression of a curve of numbers where the visas issued are 50, 48, 48, 46, 40 (2007), 46, 48, 51, 51 and then BANG 34 in 2012 (and back up to 50 ish in 2013). 2012 is a obvious anomaly, 2007 is obviously NOT an anomaly.
Click to expand...
You're contradicting yourself. 2007 is not an anomaly, an anomaly in 2012. Why did not you say that in 2007 forgot to check. smart you are misrepresenting the facts. You behave suspiciously.
The child will understand that in 2007 was an anomaly.English adult does not see this.
 
Sloner said:
You're contradicting yourself. 2007 is not an anomaly, an anomaly in 2012. Why did not you say that in 2007 forgot to check. smart you are misrepresenting the facts. You behave suspiciously.
The child will understand that in 2007 was an anomaly.English adult does not see this.
Click to expand...

So what happened in 2007 Sloner - you said that you knew - what is it?
 
4. Go through and disqualify the duplicate/fraud entries (this step produces the holes)
Click to expand...
holes can not be. I have given link. To blame the scammers and middlemen. By the way you do not accidentally fill another application for the lottery?
 
Sloner said:
holes can not be. I have given link. To blame the scammers and middlemen. By the way you do not accidentally fill another application for the lottery?
Click to expand...

HUH? There are no holes now????? Isn't it a little early in Russia to be hitting the vodka already???
 
Sloner said:
Africa will not get this number of visas. maximum 19000-20000.
It can happen I do agree with you

Iran+Nepal (7%) 7000. Where the rest?
Click to expand...

I said 7000 I just made an aproxmative , a quick estimation to mijoro after she asked me !
I did withing less than 20second so ok its bit far from what usualy asia gets! Its was just an exemple!
 
britsimon said:
I don't think we know for sure when in the process they cut the countries out. If they gave everyone numbers and then disqualified the high entry countries then yes that would have an impact on the holes. However, I don't believe that is what happens. I think the order is:

1. Select randomly (within the region)
2. Pick the selectees one by one, and note the countries of each winner. Stop taking winners from countries when 6000 is hit.
3. Assign the case number
4. Go through and disqualify the duplicate/fraud entries (this step produces the holes)
Click to expand...

I believe they proceed to #1 and #3 simultaneously for each region (all entrants get a number, which is the reason why there are so many digits in the CN numbers), then they go through #4 (disqualify fraudulent entries creating holes in the sequence), and then decide up to which CN number they notify people.
 
Sloner now give us your estimation on this thread for all the region . So that we will see at the end of the year?
I will do the same just not today !
 
Simon : Give us the totalsof your sheet on this thread just that? Only by region its more than enough I want it for the record.
 
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