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For those that like to argue about statistics...

Sloner if your Criticize his estimation based on ceac dv13 whih is not official
And lacking data than I would maye be agree with u?
 
britsimon said:
Vladek, he can't say too much. This is Sloners method, but whilst he based everything on 2012, I used (or advised trusting) 2011.
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I looked on all the aspects of your approach I didn't find any gap . I even tried to re inject sloners software theory again (not that I believed on it!) And I dug in the AOS to see if its might clash with your estimation, I concluded that your sheet is to me very acceptable. great job simon.

I'm sure mijoro got knock out because of my typo lol
 
Simon is it possible for you to convert your sheet to a pdf format ?
I use a tiny phone to connect so for me its hard to look at your sheet
Since its shows column by column, or may be if u can just make for us a small
Board with just the totals .
I don't have time to print it and today its my Bday its bit hectic for me lol
 
Semen (so it will be in Russian) come to Siberia. -40 Frost. Englishman in goes Sneakers on the snow. Main therapeutic agent from frostbite is alcohols or vodka.:) This is not London rain.

Can not be compared to the year 2011, there was used the old equipment.
Which car accelerates faster new or old?
 
Thank you for your contributions

Dear Forum Members, Sloner, Britsimon, Vladek, Raevsky and others,

First off, allow me to thank you for your contributions to this forum and for constant effort you put in in making other peoples lives easier. I have been lurking around here for a while and finally decided to post something. I think you guys are doing an amazing job.

I'm a dv 2014 winner from Lebanon with case number AS23xxx.

All your contributions come from a good place, although some might be a little less unambiguous/exact than others. I understand where all of you are coming from, especially Sloner, who seems to be making sense to me (can't say the same for others though :p).

I do have a question though, which I think lies at the heart of the matter: Has it always been that countries of large selectee numbers been grouped together in terms of CN, or is it this year alone? If it is this year alone (plus 2012), I think Sloner might be on to something. Just wondering...

Also another question that just popped up in my mind: It would seem as though a concentration of people from the same country (not ones with high selectee numbers) have CN's grouped together in a not-so-definitive range [this is merely based on the different posts on this forum].

Awesome you guys!!

Thank you all, Merci a tous, Gracias a todos, شكرا لكم جزيلا

Keep on rocking
 
Sloner said:
Semen (so it will be in Russian) come to Siberia. -40 Frost. Englishman in goes Sneakers on the snow. Main therapeutic agent from frostbite is alcohols or vodka.:) This is not London rain.

Can not be compared to the year 2011, there was used the old equipment.
Which car accelerates faster new or old?
Click to expand...


OK Sloner. You need to throw away your translator. You just translated my name into сперма.

As we have said before. The software deals with the selection and numbering of the winners. Once the selectees have been informed the software has NOTHING to do with the application process and seeing how many people get visas. So, this comment is so silly. Please stop saying it.
 
kookshib said:
Dear Forum Members, Sloner, Britsimon, Vladek, Raevsky and others,

First off, allow me to thank you for your contributions to this forum and for constant effort you put in in making other peoples lives easier. I have been lurking around here for a while and finally decided to post something. I think you guys are doing an amazing job.

I'm a dv 2014 winner from Lebanon with case number AS23xxx.

All your contributions come from a good place, although some might be a little less unambiguous/exact than others. I understand where all of you are coming from, especially Sloner, who seems to be making sense to me (can't say the same for others though :p).

I do have a question though, which I think lies at the heart of the matter: Has it always been that countries of large selectee numbers been grouped together in terms of CN, or is it this year alone? If it is this year alone (plus 2012), I think Sloner might be on to something. Just wondering...

Also another question that just popped up in my mind: It would seem as though a concentration of people from the same country (not ones with high selectee numbers) have CN's grouped together in a not-so-definitive range [this is merely based on the different posts on this forum].

Awesome you guys!!

Thank you all, Merci a tous, Gracias a todos, شكرا لكم جزيلا

Keep on rocking
Click to expand...

So after all you have read you think 2012 can tell us something and that Sloner is making the most sense.

I am speechless.
 
Sloner said:
Semen (so it will be in Russian) come to Siberia. -40 Frost. Englishman in goes Sneakers on the snow. Main therapeutic agent from frostbite is alcohols or vodka.:) This is not London rain.

Can not be compared to the year 2011, there was used the old equipment.
Which car accelerates faster new or old?
Click to expand...

Wahaha u made me wet my pants :):):)
 
britsimon said:
So after all you have read you think 2012 can tell us something and that Sloner is making the most sense.

I am speechless.
Click to expand...

Well, no, not the most sense, but some sense - please don't put words in my mouth. I think you and Raevsky make the most sense. All that doesn't mean that he's [Sloner] crazy (in the most playful sense of the word). Playing the guessing game for 2014 is far too difficult, and just as you pose the assumption that the extra selectees are to ensure that all visas are used [which makes sense], Sloner might have something behind his explanation IF he can properly and adequately explain it.

I'm just saying that given that this year is special in every way, special explanations might hold water.
 
kookshib said:
Well, no, not the most sense, but some sense - please don't put words in my mouth. I think you and Raevsky make the most sense. All that doesn't mean that he's [Sloner] crazy (in the most playful sense of the word). Playing the guessing game for 2014 is far too difficult, and just as you pose the assumption that the extra selectees are to ensure that all visas are used [which makes sense], Sloner might have something behind his explanation IF he can properly and adequately explain it.

I'm just saying that given that this year is special in every way, special explanations might hold water.
Click to expand...

Well none of us know - that is for sure - we can only speculate.

As for your original questions, the grouping happens because certain countries have a MASSIVE number of entries. For instance, in DV2013 Nigeria has 1.3 million entries (accounting for 2 million people with family members). That was 1/6th of the total entries in the world - from one country.

The new software and the old software cuts off countries at a certain point during the selection process so they can't get many more more than about 6000 selectees. So take Cameroon in DV2013 for instance - they had 225,000 family members (about 1/8th of the number of entries that Nigeria had) BUT they received nearly 4000 winners compared to Nigeria who got only 6200. SO - there is obviously an artificial limit in place.

If your initial selection pool is swamped by the massive number of entries from one country what you will see is lots of Nigerians (for instance) in the early numbers and then much fewer in higher case numbers. This is why the country cutoffs are in place to slow down the administrative burden of all those high entry countries at the beginning of the processing. There is nothing magical or mysterious about that, and it isn't new - you can look at older years and see the same thing.
 
Thank you for the explanation BritSimon. I understand now what you are saying regarding the breakdown of the OC numbers. And you are right it does give one the feeling to be cautiously optimistic. Now depending on how the returns are for the next couple of months we might just see some jumps for the oc and perhaps the OC region maybe one if the few to turn current.
 
OK Sloner. You need to throw away your translator. You just translated my name into сперма.

As we have said before. The software deals with the selection and numbering of the winners. Once the selectees have been informed the software has NOTHING to do with the application process and seeing how many people get visas. So, this comment is so silly. Please stop saying it.
Click to expand...
:D:D:D I wrote in transliteration. "Семён"
You just do not know much myself lottery process. I understand why you seem to be my thoughts delirium. Like me your. The language barrier prevents explain very much.
 
Sloaner what nationality are you? Would it be possible for you to type up your theory in your native tongue and then perhaps we could have someone translate it for us.
 
Sloner said:
:D:D:D I wrote in transliteration. "Семён"
You just do not know much myself lottery process. I understand why you seem to be my thoughts delirium. Like me your. The language barrier prevents explain very much.
Click to expand...

OK let's make this simple. Please explain (in any language you like) what affect the software has on these things:-

1. The percentage of selectees that return their forms for processing.
2. The percentage of selectees who don't show up for their interviews.
3. The percentage of selectees who get denied.
4. The percentage of selectees that get approved.
 
britsimon said:
OK let's make this simple. Please explain (in any language you like) what affect the software has on these things:-

1. The percentage of selectees that return their forms for processing.
2. The percentage of selectees who don't show up for their interviews.
3. The percentage of selectees who get denied.
4. The percentage of selectees that get approved.
Click to expand...


How could the software possibly have any affect on those four things? I mean unless we are living in the matrix and the program delays flights and re routes taxis then it has no effect on number 2 at least.
 
britsimon said:
OK let's make this simple. Please explain (in any language you like) what affect the software has on these things:-

1. The percentage of selectees that return their forms for processing.
2. The percentage of selectees who don't show up for their interviews.
3. The percentage of selectees who get denied.
4. The percentage of selectees that get approved.
Click to expand...

1-form sare no more paper, memory sticks filled up with personal data.
2-selectees that don't show up (are people that's discconnected from the matrix).
3-selectees denied are the ones that followed morfius.
4-selectees approved; the ones that accepts the matrix rules and cooperates with agent smith.
This the answer option I can imagine that can corroborate sloners software theory !:)
 
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