For those that like to argue about statistics...

[rocky72]

Aproximative visas quotas are like this :
Af 22000-24000
Eu 18000- 19000
As 6000- 7000
Sa 1500- 1600
Oc 1500-1600

if EU will get 18-19k visas , then up to 46-48K case numbers may be interviewed .
2013 . 33+2K selecties got around 16K visas . 35/16= 2,19
each 2,19 selected got 1 visa .
19k visas * 2,19= 41610 selected we need to take 19k visas.
54000 case numbers / 46580 selected = 1,16 . each selected covers 1,16 case numbers
41610*1,16= 48238 !
so, to interview 41,6K winners cut-off must cover EU48238 case numbers

 

[Britsimon]

if EU will get 18-19k visas , then up to 46-48K case numbers may be interviewed .
2013 . 33+2K selecties got around 16K visas . 35/16= 2,19
each 2,19 selected got 1 visa .
19k visas * 2,19= 41610 selected we need to take 19k visas.
54000 case numbers / 46580 selected = 1,16 . each selected covers 1,16 case numbers
41610*1,16= 48238 !
so, to interview 41,6K winners cut-off must cover EU48238 case numbers

Yep - that is another way to do it. When I did the quotas (in post 9 of this thread) I came up with 18200 with an assumption that there are 55k visa - i.e. no Nacara visas taken. So I think the quota range for EU is probably more like 16.5 to 18 so taking the lowest figure that would come out at 36135 and 39420 at the highest. That gives a CN number range of 41916 to 45727.

HOWEVER, this method supposes the holes are the same as DV2013 and since there new software Sloner is always on about CAN affect the holes, this is a slightly riskier method in my opinion.

 

[rocky72]

HOWEVER, this method supposes the holes are the same as DV2013 and since there new software Sloner is always on about CAN affect the holes, this is a slightly riskier method in my opinion.

i have no idea about what is the main function for new software(there are only 3 know it , my vodka drinker bro - Sloner , KCC itself , and God )
, but in fact , we have higher case number then number of selecties for EU in dv2014.
for just 46,7K winners we have at least 54K case numbers (i dont mention numbers above 54K because they are very rare ,while 53-54K case numbers we can meet with same frequency as any other number)
well, so 54/46,6 = 1,16 each 1 winner has 0,16 "holes" ,and there is nothing to do with new software.

actually i dont take too serious all this calculations dedicated to so-called "DV-lottery scientific researches"((((((
rather i'm proponent of other theory , which says - guys , relax .. just be patient and wait , things come clear soon!
Also i realize , that we have many factors missing in our predictions .

But there are many ways to waste a time , somebody watching soccer ,the other play games , and we have chosen our own way to do it
(very wide smile)

 

[Eucn]

Yep - that is another way to do it. When I did the quotas (in post 9 of this thread) I came up with 18200 with an assumption that there are 55k visa - i.e. no Nacara visas taken. So I think the quota range for EU is probably more like 16.5 to 18 so taking the lowest figure that would come out at 36135 and 39420 at the highest. That gives a CN number range of 41916 to 45727.

HOWEVER, this method supposes the holes are the same as DV2013 and since there new software Sloner is always on about CAN affect the holes, this is a slightly riskier method in my opinion.

If we consider maturation of the population of eu selectees the upper range could be possible. Unfortunately we have no data that can validate what the maturation rate is, but there is one for sure.

 

[Sloner]

OK let's make this simple. Please explain (in any language you like) what affect the software has on these things:-

1. The percentage of selectees that return their forms for processing.
2. The percentage of selectees who don't show up for their interviews.
3. The percentage of selectees who get denied.
4. The percentage of selectees that get approved.

all. These things are interrelated. They radically changed the system, company. Evidence is clear. That you do not see. I'm asking why 46,000 won and 60,000 numbers in Europe? You keep this obvious thing hard to deny. You did not answer why in 2007 issued 40,000 visas? I know it. Waiting for an answer from you.

 

[Sloner]

Af 22000-24000

Africa will not get this number of visas. maximum 19000-20000.

As 6000- 7000

Iran+Nepal (7%) 7000. Where the rest?

 

[Britsimon]

all. These things are interrelated. They radically changed the system, company. Evidence is clear. That you do not see. I'm asking why 46,000 won and 60,000 numbers in Europe? You keep this obvious thing hard to deny. You did not answer why in 2007 issued 40,000 visas? I know it. Waiting for an answer from you.

Ok so your answer is all four points are affected by the software. It is certain that is not true for at least the first two, and only possibly an impact on 3 and 4 in the case of some fraud (I.e. the software had red flagged the case).

To answer your questions, the 46k winners resulting in 60k numbers is holes. That is no mystery.

About 2007 I have no idea. Feel free to enlighten us.

 

[Britsimon]

Africa will not get this number of visas. maximum 19000-20000.


Iran+Nepal (7%) 7000. Where the rest?

You are correct about Asia, I'm not sure why Vladek said that. My estimate for Asia is 9 to 10k.

About your number for Africa, I am sure you are basing that on 2012 again and that is the most obvious metric that will show how wrong you are.

 

[House409]

Ok so your answer is all four points are affected by the software. It is certain that is not true for at least the first two, and only possibly an impact on 3 and 4 in the case of some fraud (I.e. the software had red flagged the case).

To answer your questions, the 46k winners resulting in 60k numbers is holes. That is no mystery.

About 2007 I have no idea. Feel free to enlighten us.

There were only 82k selectees in FY2007 (see VB Aug 2006). Can this explain they didn't fill the quota that year?

They have steadily increased the number of selectees over the following years: 96k in FY2008, 99k in FY2009, ..., probably to make sure the quotas could be filled, don't you think?

 

[House409]

Also I just noticed they had selected 90k applicants in FY2006, and that year was particularly low in cutoff numbers (16k for EU, 33.9k for AF in August 06....!), meaning they had very little holes between consecutive winning CNs. So they probably thought they had selected too many applicants for FY2006 when they made the selection for FY2007. At the end, they were not able to fill the quota though.

Not sure we can extrapolate those years to the current DV14. One sure thing is they are selecting way much more people nowadays.

 

[Britsimon]

There were only 82k selectees in FY2007 (see VB Aug 2006). Can this explain they didn't fill the quota that year?

They have steadily increased the number of selectees over the following years: 96k in FY2008, 99k in FY2009, ..., probably to make sure the quotas could be filled, don't you think?

LOL - yes that would absolutely explain it. I've never been worried about 2007 because it was a clear progression of a curve of numbers where the visas issued are 50, 48, 48, 46, 40 (2007), 46, 48, 51, 51 and then BANG 34 in 2012 (and back up to 50 ish in 2013). 2012 is a obvious anomaly, 2007 is obviously NOT an anomaly.

As you pointed out (thanks for seaching the VBs by the way) if 2007 has 20% less selectees than the more recent years it isn't a surprise that it had 20% less visas issued. 2012 however had the more typical ~100k selectees and 30% less winners than expected. Even if you knew nothing about the redraw/lawsuits etc you would see that 2012 was not normal.

Honestly, I feel we have beaten this to death. I just plotted the numbers on a big graph for my 5 year old child and asked her where was the biggest shock and she immediately pointed at 2012! So all we have proved is that a 5 year old in Britain is smarter than at least one Russian adult.

 

[rocky72]

I just plotted the numbers on a big graph for my 5 year old child and asked her where was the biggest shock and she immediately pointed at 2012! So all we have proved is that a 5 year old in Britain is smarter than at least one Russian adult.

is there some sort of law in England, which punishes the involvement of children in harmful exercises?(((

 

[Britsimon]

is there some sort of law in England, which punishes the involvement of children in harmful exercises?(((

Well we call it education. Sloners parents obviously thought it was "harmful exercises".

Haha Sloner - got you back for the finish school comment!

 

[Britsimon]

Also I just noticed they had selected 90k applicants in FY2006, and that year was particularly low in cutoff numbers (16k for EU, 33.9k for AF in August 06....!), meaning they had very little holes between consecutive winning CNs. So they probably thought they had selected too many applicants for FY2006 when they made the selection for FY2007. At the end, they were not able to fill the quota though.

Not sure we can extrapolate those years to the current DV14. One sure thing is they are selecting way much more people nowadays.

The process (dare I mention, the software) is much better these days at detecting duplicate entries and so there are a lot more holes these days and presumably, more successful applications since the selection is higher "quality" (less fraudsters).

 

[House409]

I can remember I got a generic email in early summer 2011 from DOS, saying they had to redraw dv12 because the first selection was not random. I am really surprised they were not able to fill the quota because most of the applicants should have received that same email, and knew, as I did, they were redrawing the lottery.

Do you when KCC stopped sending 1NL by mail? This can also explain a higher percentage of people not aware of them being winners?

 

[Britsimon]

I can remember I got a generic email in early summer 2011 from DOS, saying they had to redraw dv12 because the first selection was not random. I am really surprised they were not able to fill the quota because most of the applicants should have received that same email, and knew, as I did, they were redrawing the lottery.

Do you when KCC stopped sending 1NL by mail? This can also explain a higher percentage of people not aware of them being winners?

Yeah that email was and effective communication to most people that have easy access to email but it would have been ineffective in places where there is not such easy access to email. What is the first region that pops into your head that has less access to email? To me it would be Africa - and sure enough their visas issued numbers were dramatically down in 2012 - 13.5k where they got 24k the year before. So - 10,000 of the missing visas were in one region - Africa, and that is exactly why Sloner believes they will only get 19-20k this year (with no other evidence to back up that reduction in quota.

 

[rocky72]

Well we call it education. Sloners parents obviously thought it was "harmful exercises".

Haha Sloner - got you back for the finish school comment!

bro , i have serious doubts , that DV-calculations may educate a kid . DV-loto will be repealed soon or late (i think soon)
Sloner's wish is , that everyone from that 141K selected will get his visa . His desire is very noble, but of course, he bears no responsibility when crowds of disappointed winners will get sore truth in the beginning of autumn-2014 .

 

[rocky72]

I am really surprised they were not able to fill the quota because most of the applicants should have received that same email,

so they same mostly filled a quota for EU in 2012

 

[Britsimon]

bro , i have serious doubts , that DV-calculations may educate a kid . DV-loto will be repealed soon or late (i think soon)
Sloner's wish is , that everyone from that 141K selected will get his visa . His desire is very noble, but of course, he bears no responsibility when crowds of disappointed winners will get sore truth in the beginning of autumn-2014 .

Yeah agreed. I wish for the same thing as Sloner - I just think it is kinder to gently warn people about the risks up front so they can be prepared for Autumn 2014 and not put all their hopes and dreams into this thing, only to see that evaporate with no warning.

 

[rocky72]

Yeah agreed. I wish for the same thing as Sloner - I just think it is kinder to gently warn people about the risks up front so they can be prepared for Autumn 2014 and not put all their hopes and dreams into this thing, only to see that evaporate with no warning.

you are right.
i just would add , that even you , with your 31K ,which seems safe enough ,shouldn't " put all your hopes and dreams into this thing"
Look ...
in 2004-2005 , EU got 21721 and 19330 visas , that is more then ever in past 10 years , right?
but cut-offs for those years for EU ended just at 28,700 and 20,500 in Septembers.

everything may happen ,
if quota for EU is just 16K , then even last cases of third decade are under the risk ..
and meanwhile ,i won't be too surprised, if even 50-ies will go to interview
Nobody really knows what KFC keeps in its mind.