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For those that like to argue about statistics...

britsimon said:
OK - have a look at the shared spreadsheet - the OC by country numbers are there now. Demand is around 1525 to 1562 visas based on the 2011 success rate. If you look at an earlier post of mine in this thread you will see I took a crack at the possible regional quota based on 55,000 available visas (i.e. assuming NONE went to NACARA). I am back and forth about NACARA - I read something today that made me think all 5k visas will go to NACARA - leaving only 50k - in that case my splits would be around 10% overestimated. However, that estimate came out at 1600 so losing 5k to NACARA would still leave around 1440 - about 100 less than demand. It is important to note though that the 1600 is calculated assuming the selectee split is a deliberate split that indicates what the regional splits should be. That may not be a correct assumption.

However, that makes me feel a lot more positive about OC than I have been feeling because I could not understand the 100% increase in selectees. I now see why that was necessary and a higher quota for OC region only "costs" a couple of hundred visas so that could easily be justified. That leads me to think that if any region stands a chance of going current it would be OC.

Now OC folks just need the VBs to play along with the plan....
Click to expand...

So let me make sure I am understanding this correctly, out of 4215 selectees ( primary and families) there are around 2100 primary applicants.

The 1525 - 1562 visas that you have calculated that will be allocated will be shared among these 4215 selectees not just the primary 2100 is that correct?

Why does that make you feel better? What am I missing here? That means 1 visa per 2.6 people? Is that good odds? And if so how will that reflect on our cut off point?
 
mijoro said:
So let me make sure I am understanding this correctly, out of 4215 selectees ( primary and families) there are around 2100 primary applicants.

The 1525 - 1562 visas that you have calculated that will be allocated will be shared among these 4215 selectees not just the primary 2100 is that correct?

Why does that make you feel better? What am I missing here? That means 1 visa per 2.6 people? Is that good odds? And if so how will that reflect on our cut off point?
Click to expand...

Unfortunatly yes mijoro :(
Its like AF about 62000 selectees to take about 23000 visas.
 
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Well darn thats harsh but if thats the case where are the majority of visa's going if Africa is only getting 2300??? I must be missing something here.

I would like to know what Simon thought the numbers were going to be like for oc if 1500 makes him happy.

I have to say at least with 1500 visas, I perhaps have a small window of opportunity as I am in the very low 2K range.

Is there anyway of predicting from these numbers how the cut offs will be affected?
 
mijoro said:
Well darn thats harsh but if thats the case where are the majority of visa's going if Africa is only getting 2300??? I must be missing something here.

I would like to know what Simon thought the numbers were going to be like for oc if 1500 makes him happy.

I have to say at least with 1500 visas, I perhaps have a small window of opportunity as I am in the very low 2K range.

Is there anyway of predicting from these numbers how the cut offs will be affected?
Click to expand...

Aproximative visas quotas are like this :
Af 22000-24000
Eu 18000- 19000
As 6000- 7000
Sa 1500- 1600
Oc 1500-1600
 
mijoro said:
So let me make sure I am understanding this correctly, out of 4215 selectees ( primary and families) there are around 2100 primary applicants.

The 1525 - 1562 visas that you have calculated that will be allocated will be shared among these 4215 selectees not just the primary 2100 is that correct?

Why does that make you feel better? What am I missing here? That means 1 visa per 2.6 people? Is that good odds? And if so how will that reflect on our cut off point?
Click to expand...


Hi Mijoro - sorry this is confusing.

First off the 2100 I mentioned earlier should really be 2400 (based on 2013 data). 2013 showed that OC region selectees needed an average of 0.75 visas for derivatives (spouses and children). So - 2400 are primary applicants.

The 1525 - 1562 are both numbers I have calculated from 2011 success rates applied to 2014 selectees. The two numbers represent two slightly different methods, the lower number is for the region, the higher is calculated by country.

SO - what is this success rate? Well imagine USCIS select 100 people (which would be 175 with family members). Of the 100, some won't even bother to return the forms. Some will return the forms but miss their interview. Some will attend the interview and be denied or left on AP. Some will get a visa issued. With me so far? OK - so in 2011 there were 1598 selectees for OC and OC ended up getting 578 visas. So - the "success rate" (people who get visas) was 0.36 - 36% (when I calculated for the region as a whole).

So - if we assume that the success rate remains the same in 2014 as it was in 2011, then only 36% of the 4215 will get visas - and that is where the 1525 number came from. The 1562 is a similar calculation, but calculating and applying the success rate by country, because as c1984 pointed out, the shift of selectees within OC could be significant.

OK - hopefully you aren't asleep. NOW THEN - why am I happy.

Well let's say that the success rate calculation is right and out of the 4215 selectees approximately 1550 of them would get the visa if there was no limit to the number of visas. That is the "demand".

The supply is how many visas OC has been allocated for its quota from the total number of visas. Based on the split of selectees from one region to another I calculated that OC should get between 1440 and 1600 visas (depending on 50k or 55k global limit). That high number is a bit suspect, but if the lower number is correct then the demand is not too far above supply. I'm not saying everyone is FOR SURE ok - but it won't be a bloodbath either (as it could be in the other regions).

So - I'm thinking (and it is all only guesswork) that OC is the least oversubscribed region of the 5 biggies.
 
mijoro said:
Well darn thats harsh but if thats the case where are the majority of visa's going if Africa is only getting 2300??? I must be missing something here.

I would like to know what Simon thought the numbers were going to be like for oc if 1500 makes him happy.

I have to say at least with 1500 visas, I perhaps have a small window of opportunity as I am in the very low 2K range.

Is there anyway of predicting from these numbers how the cut offs will be affected?
Click to expand...

Low 2k range in OC is good. I think the shutdown caused some damage, but I am hopeful that they can catch up. OC (like other regions) needs to see high increases on the next few VBs. We have seen 5 VBs, so the next 7 have to be good. If they make good progress then numbers in the low 2k range are in with a good shot.
 
britsimon, I still doubt that you've finished school.:)
DV2011 conducted on older hardware. Your calculations are not correct. I gave you the basic calculations.Where did you get the figure in 1500 in Oceania? She can not get as many visas.
 
mijoro said:
Well darn thats harsh but if thats the case where are the majority of visa's going if Africa is only getting 2300??? I must be missing something here.

I would like to know what Simon thought the numbers were going to be like for oc if 1500 makes him happy.

I have to say at least with 1500 visas, I perhaps have a small window of opportunity as I am in the very low 2K range.

Is there anyway of predicting from these numbers how the cut offs will be affected?
Click to expand...

I edited my post above sorry for the huge typo ! Imeant AF 23000
 
Sloner said:
britsimon, I still doubt that you've finished school.:)
DV2011 conducted on older hardware. Your calculations are not correct. I gave you the basic calculations.Where did you get the figure in 1500 in Oceania? She can not get as many visas.
Click to expand...

But sloner the software has no impact after the selection ?!
 
Sloner said:
britsimon, I still doubt that you've finished school.:)
DV2011 conducted on older hardware. Your calculations are not correct. I gave you the basic calculations.Where did you get the figure in 1500 in Oceania? She can not get as many visas.
Click to expand...

Old software.

This is your premise Sloner, just applied in a different way because I realise that you have some good ideas sometimes but you are bloody lousy at mathematics.

You have said that the quotas are reflected in the selectee split. I explained that in post 9 in this thread - but the selectee split for 2014 is 62:23:47:4.2:4.6.

So according to YOUR premise OC should receive 4200/140000*50000. That comes to 1500. Honestly it is a little higher than I am comfortable with, but even if it ends up being 1400 that will still be a good result for OC.
 
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