• Hello Members, This forums is for DV lottery visas only. For other immigration related questions, please go to our forums home page, find the related forum and post it there.

For those that like to argue about statistics...

And with lot of spleculation about second draw in dv 13 ....my self I don't think there was any beside dv12 but they still asked to do in dv 13 my guess is just they feared again a second anomaly on the software for dv 13?
Hope u guys understand
Click to expand...

Well done! quite so. New leadership frightened another failure. Therefore, they decided to spend the DV13 on older hardware. Perhaps something retrofitted.
Famously and confidently assert that they forgot to check the road to nowhere.
 
A point of concern Here friends pliz, the notification letter I received in may stated 125000 selected winners and several sites later have been indicating of 140000 winners plus were selected what the confusion here is this connected to the so called "second draw in October?" and if real it happened why KCC officially never stated this like it happened in 2012 when results were nullified.
 
confusion btn 125000 and 140000 selected winners

A point of concern Here friends pliz, the notification letter I received in may stated 125000 selected winners and several sites later have been indicating of 140000 winners plus were selected what the confusion here is this connected to the so called "second draw in October?" and if real it happened why KCC officially never stated this like it happened in 2012 when results were nullified.
 
rogers.com said:
A point of concern Here friends pliz, the notification letter I received in may stated 125000 selected winners and several sites later have been indicating of 140000 winners plus were selected what the confusion here is this connected to the so called "second draw in October?" and if real it happened why KCC officially never stated this like it happened in 2012 when results were nullified.
Click to expand...

http://travel.state.gov/visa/immigrants/types/types_6188.html
 
rogers.com said:
A point of concern Here friends pliz, the notification letter I received in may stated 125000 selected winners and several sites later have been indicating of 140000 winners plus were selected what the confusion here is this connected to the so called "second draw in October?" and if real it happened why KCC officially never stated this like it happened in 2012 when results were nullified.
Click to expand...

vladek15425 said:
http://travel.state.gov/visa/immigrants/types/types_6188.html
Click to expand...


As Vladek is pointing out the first time we learned of the 140k selectees (as opposed to the 125k stated in our 1NL letters) was in the September VB (published in mid August). So - the 140k was official but we don't know if there was a second draw or not (or if more of the 140k numbers were revealed).
 
vladek15425 said:
Morning simon ;
Sloner is promissing extra 1400 visas for OC check it out on australian winner thread?
Click to expand...

I read it - I can't figure out what he is saying. He knows the quota is not 3000 for OC in 2014, just like it wasn't 1600 in 2013. Maybe 3000 is his prediction for the number of apples eaten by the 4200 winners. I'd say that was low. People eat more apples than that.
 
britsimon said:
I read it - I can't figure out what he is saying. He knows the quota is not 3000 for OC in 2014, just like it wasn't 1600 in 2013. Maybe 3000 is his prediction for the number of apples eaten by the 4200 winners. I'd say that was low. People eat more apples than that.
Click to expand...

Lol apples !
 
vladek15425 said:
Simon you said the nacara quota will be exhausted ? This year Can you provide us more info on that?
Click to expand...

I'm soooo confused about NACARA Vladek.

The NACARA allocation (taken from DV) is still in place as it has been since DV2000. The wording is that NACARA can take UP TO 5000 visas and in various announcements they mention 50,000 is the DV allocation, I've seen the 7% country limit expressed as 3500 (reinforcing the 50k versus 55k) So - for a long time I have just assumed the 5000 visas were gone to NACARA and considered the limit to be 50k.

HOWEVER, If you look back at the visas issued number (in the link below) you will see that between 2003 to 2012 the 50k "limit" has been exceeded 3 years). I could explain a few over the 50k by babies being born after interview and before entry - but the excess is too high to explain that way.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY12AnnualReport-TableVII.pdf

Then recently I started thinking about NACARA and what the program covered and unless I am missing something the NACARA program demand must be reducing (since it relates to immigrants who settled in the US in the early 90's). So I think some of the 5000 *might* be available for DV. Since it is 10% of the visas that would make a big difference to the cutoffs.

So - I am as confused as you are...
 
britsimon said:
One of the most important unknowns is how many of the selectees will return their forms, how many will be denied and how many will get their visas. So the selectee to visa issued ratio (which varies by country and region) is important.

USCIS PUblish data about that at the bottom of this page - http://travel.state.gov/visa/immigrants/types/types_1322.html


I've looked at the three years 2011, 2012 and 2013 to see if history could tell us anything.

For 2013, we have the published selectee counts but we do not have the official visas issued numbers. We do have the CEAC data but it is missing some cases that never got in to CEAC AND it is missing the AOS cases. However, what is there is very accurate and verifiable.

2012 was a horrendous year for the lottery. The draw was made, people were notified and then they realised it was an invalid draw, so they threw away the results and redrew the winners around July 2011. That resulted in a very low response rate (I believe because many people didn't get to hear about the redraw and didn't recheck their numbers). Less than 35k visas were issued - really this year should NOT be used for analysis.

2011 is the most recent "reliable" year. From that year we see a standard number of selectees (with selectee ratios somewhat similar to this year) and just over 51k visas were issued.

I have gathered the selectees per region and the results for visas issued. I have shown 2011 data but also for comparison the 2012 data and then 2013 thown a couple of ways. Neither the 2012 nor the 2013 examples are worth relying on, in my opinion - but interesting to have them. The last column that shows the demand, shows how "oversubscribed" the lottery is this year. The max number for the global total cannot be more than 55,000 so unless 2012 happens again (which is ridiculous) there will be a shortfall. I will add my predictions for regional quotas later...

The data is shown here:-
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...ZnlmcU1id1Vsd3F6Qm9SQThSYUE&usp=sharing#gid=0
Click to expand...

Ok AOS is missing you say ?
Simon I'm from france,born in france, I won the dv I stay already in usa, I'm going AOS, if I get the visa will my number reflect on the france visa winner or will I be putting in other categorie like
All aos in a separate bag?
 
Last edited by a moderator:
vladek15425 said:
Ok AOS is missing you say ?
Simon I'm from france,born in france, I won the dv I stay already in usa, I'm going AOS, if I get the visa will my number reflect on the france visa winner or will I be putting in other categorie like
All aos in a separate bag?
Click to expand...


When they report the numbers historically it is done on the country of chargeability - so yours would appear in France. AOS data doesn't appear in the CEAC data but it does appear in the historical reports such visas issued pdf I linked to earlier...
 
britsimon said:
When they report the numbers historically it is done on the country of chargeability - so yours would appear in France. AOS data doesn't appear in the CEAC data but it does appear in the historical reports such visas issued pdf I linked to earlier...
Click to expand...

Ok so what is your reason not including aos in your sheet ? Because if you using dv11 succes rate isn't it including?
 
vladek15425 said:
Ok so what is your reason not including aos in your sheet ? Because if you using dv11 succes rate isn't it including?
Click to expand...

I am including AOS in my numbers - because as you say the 2011 data includes aos and the 2014 selectees includes some of those that will do aos.

The only bit from my spreadsheet that excludes aos is the 2013 data because the aos numbers are not recorded in CEAC.
 
I read it - I can't figure out what he is saying. He knows the quota is not 3000 for OC in 2014, just like it wasn't 1600 in 2013. Maybe 3000 is his prediction for the number of apples eaten by the 4200 winners. I'd say that was low. People eat more apples than that.
Click to expand...
You have finished school?
4215/2193=1,92
578*1,92=1109 visas in 2014
 
Sloner said:
You have finished school?
4215/2193=1,92
578*1,92=1109 visas in 2014
Click to expand...

LOL! I admit I am not as well educated as you Sloner - that is obvious.

Now then, what I couldn't understand was why you came up with 1600 and 3000. The 2193 is fine and I can see what you are trying to express in this post (the possible increase in quota), but your post on the Australian thread makes about as much sense as mine about apples.
 
Now then, what I couldn't understand was why you came up with 1600 and 3000. The 2193 is fine and I can see what you are trying to express in this post (the possible increase in quota), but your post on the Australian thread makes about as much sense as mine about apples.
Click to expand...
1600-1700-South America, +1100 Oceania = 2700-2800.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top