MattWatt
Active Member
I'd be VERY surprised if the whole region didn't go current around June/July.
DV 2016 OC Selectees
- Thread starter Sm1smom
- Start date
I'd be VERY surprised if the whole region didn't go current around June/July.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
They tend to pace themselves - so doing 12 months of interviews in 8 months isn't that likely.
connectedspace
Active Member
Yes, I'd like to see the max case number for OC in DV2016.
With 1500 selectees, if the rates are the same as last year, highest CN is likely around 990. Puts me at the back of the queue. So I guess I'm anticipating an August-September interview.
But it's another bloody year of anxious waiting! And there's always a chance that they've decreased quota, or the uptake rate skyrockets. Worry worry worry.
guestgulkan
Well-Known Member
With a max CN of 1500 for DV2016 - does that tend to indicate they think the max CN for DV2015 will be a little lower than that?
connectedspace
Active Member
The max CN wasn't 1500. There were 1500 selectees in total! I'm estimating a max CN of 990-1000. In DV2015, there were 3499 selectees in total, with max CN of 2306.
guestgulkan
Well-Known Member
whoah - I really mis-interpreted that. 1500 in total including derivatives?
KCC have been smoking something. No-way they'll issue enough visas from that lot.
KCC have been smoking something. No-way they'll issue enough visas from that lot.
MattWatt
Active Member
Are you sure? The bulletin states:
Wouldn't that be counting just the primary applicant?
SusieQQQ
Well-Known Member
This question gets asked every year
Yes the way KCC states it is confusing, but the 91k definitely includes derivatives - also remember that the 50k visas available includes derivatives as well.
MelbourneBen
Member
Hi All,
I was selected for the 2016 DV Lottery (2016OC000006XX) and in searching for answers to my (many) questions, I luckily found this site!
I have a few questions, but the first I needed an answer for is as follows:
I was born in England and moved with my family to Aus when I was 10. As such, I now have Aus and UK citizenship. My wife was born and raised in Australia, so it was through her that I was eligible for the DV Lottery. However, my question relates to citizenship documents. On receiving Aus citizenship, I was given a 'citizenship certificate' but, unfortunately, lost it some time ago. On the 'required document's list', it stated that I would need to provide it. Wouldn't my Australian Passport be good enough evidence that I have Australian citizenship? Or should I try and organise a replacement?
Appreciate any advice.
Ben
I was selected for the 2016 DV Lottery (2016OC000006XX) and in searching for answers to my (many) questions, I luckily found this site!
I have a few questions, but the first I needed an answer for is as follows:
I was born in England and moved with my family to Aus when I was 10. As such, I now have Aus and UK citizenship. My wife was born and raised in Australia, so it was through her that I was eligible for the DV Lottery. However, my question relates to citizenship documents. On receiving Aus citizenship, I was given a 'citizenship certificate' but, unfortunately, lost it some time ago. On the 'required document's list', it stated that I would need to provide it. Wouldn't my Australian Passport be good enough evidence that I have Australian citizenship? Or should I try and organise a replacement?
Appreciate any advice.
Ben
guestgulkan
Well-Known Member
This question gets asked every year
Derivates (incl primary) DV2016: 1500
Holes rate (DV2015): 8%
Derivatives per CN (DV2015): 1.3
(1500 / 1.3) / 0.92 = 1255 Max CN
Still reckon they're smoking something.
MelbourneBen
Member
Thanks! That's what I was thinking.
One more question...
I have seen others mention the issue of proving you won't become a 'public charge'. However, when I was looking at the documents I need to provide, it does not state that I will need to show evidence of this. Has anyone been asked (in a Sydney interview) to provide documents that show your assets? If so, what evidence would suffice?
connectedspace
Active Member
I think it might include derivatives? Doesn't say on the VB, so I'm going from memory.
But I wouldn't be so sure about the number of visas issued. Time for some numerology and rampant speculation.
I previously made predictions about final CN cutoffs based on visa quotas and rates of issuance of visas per case number. That's where the 1580 figure came from for DV2015. And I think I can see where I went wrong: I presumed the rate of visas per CN is static. It's not. Rather, it's increasing.
I now have an hypothesis that works on the fact that AU and NZ people likely have high rates of success in getting visas if they get an interview. In essence it is: the higher the proportion of AU and NZ people amongst the selectees, the higher the number of visas issued per CN, which dramatically lowers the maximum CN and number of selectees needed. And I think this relationship is something other than linear.
In the 2013 lottery, about 62% of the OC selectees were from AU and NZ. The highest interviewed number was something like 1630 -- although the region went current. 838 visas were issued. That means a rate of 0.513 visas per case number.
In DV2014 it was 66% Australian and NZ. The highest interviewed number was 1448 and 761 visas were issued. That's a rate of 0.526 visas per case number.
In DV2015 it was 68%, with an even higher -- probably much higher -- rate of visas/cn. We don't know the highest interviewed number, but it could easily fall below 1450 and there are an estimated 831 visas to be issued. Let's estimate 0.581 visas per case number.
This time, it's 70%. Let's extrapolate that curve to its next value. We're looking at about 0.662 visas per cn for DV2016. That means if the max CN for OC this year is 990, and if the quota falls below 654 visas, then the region won't go current.
So I think that far from under selecting this year, they've tried to be realistic and minimise the amount of superfluous DS260 processing they'll need to do. And the fact that the number of selectees is so low suggests that the quota has significantly dropped. So people on high (900+ CNs) will be uncertain. Yay!
There are many things that could debunk my hypothesis. First is if the CN cutoff for DV2015 is significantly higher than 1440. Second is if the number of visas issued is significantly lower than 831. Third is if my non-linear curve fitting is bogus. Then there's the catch-all 'barking up the wrong tree caveat'.
But hopefully this iteration of the 'cutoff CN hypothesis' is closer to the truth than my earlier attempts.
EmilyW
Well-Known Member
I've not heard of any OCers being asked to prove the public charge issue.
But I did take along a personal financial statement that listed all assets and liabilities, converted into USD - along with evidence, such as bank statements, superannuation statements etc. They didn't ask for it, but i felt better taking it in.
violetion
Active Member
Yep, just reading around these forums I've noticed that it seems mainly people from less developed countries are asked to prove this, not so much places like Australia, England, etc. But I definitely would take bank statements just in case! Also, I was thinking of taking along my bachelor's degree as well (also not asked for, only need to show evidence for successfully completing high school) just to further prove that I wouldn't be a public charge on the basis of employability, etc.
Also it probably depends on your circumstances as well, I'm still a student so it's probably more likely that I could be asked to prove that I won't be a public charge, rather than someone who's been working full-time for a few years.
guestgulkan
Well-Known Member
Realised I left AOS out of this calculation but it still looks too low. Say another 60 AOS CN= 1315
Probably someone will say my derivatives per CN (1.3) is too low but I just divided using BS extract.
connectedspace
Active Member
Hm. Seems too high. In DV 2015 the max CN was 2306 out of 3499 selectees.
MattWatt
Active Member
Yes, do this. I took mine along to the interview just in case, they asked me about it and I was able to produce my graduation certificate.
EmilyW
Well-Known Member
Definitely take it. Don't include it in your main set of documents, but keep it there.
My husband did his schooling in England. The CO took one look at his O and A levels, sighed because I don't think he really understood what they were or what they proved, and asked for us for a copy of his degree instead. Thankfully we had it on hand and a copy.
My husband did his schooling in England. The CO took one look at his O and A levels, sighed because I don't think he really understood what they were or what they proved, and asked for us for a copy of his degree instead. Thankfully we had it on hand and a copy.