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Dv 2014 european winers here

Hi britsimon,

One thing is clear now, i was confusing the VB for 2013 with the upcoming 2014...so basicaly i have got another 12 months of crossing up my fingers:) but still i am confused witht the "current" status so: if it was in July 33k that means no one with a higher CN would not be processed at this point of time as they estimate to have enough selectees to grant visas for this specific region, if on the next month it becomes current it means that anyone up to 55k(or the last number for that region) is still able to get an interview as their estimation where wrong, or as you said people droped out or have been "filtered" by KCC?

Thank you,
dopos_d
 
britsimon said:
Firstly welcome to the forum and congratulations.

First point the CURRENT status relates to DV2013 - nothing to do with DV2014.

OK about the predictions for how processing will go next year. Firstly NO ONE knows for sure how things will go. We can speculate based on DV2013 and previous years (excluding DV2012). As you mentioned, DV2013 is current now in all regions. In theory that means that all case numbers could be invited for interview. However, there is a limit to the number of visas available and so it is possible that some people in any given year would miss out. Because they process in case number order, those people with higher case numbers are more at risk of not getting a visa.

Typically there were around 100-105k selectees (winners). The fallout rate is very high but also the selectees have spouses and children and those family members get counted toward the available visa limit. This year, for reasons we are not sure about they selected 125k winners. (so probably 200k people with family members). There are only around 50k available visas - so you see the problem.

People drop out and never apply for the green card for various reasons (such as not being qualified, not wanting to risk starting again in a new country). Of the people that do qualify, some will be disqualified or rejected - again for various reasons).

Many of us try to predict where the cutoff will fall. There are some who believe there will be enough visas for everyone. Given that there were 20% more selectees this year - I personally doubt that.

At the other end of the opto-pesso-meter there is a gentleman called Raevsky who has been studying the DV lottery for years and analyzing the data. He is predicting that the cutoff for Europe will be between 31k and 38.5k (I think, from memory). Given that max numbers for EU are up to around 55k this year, that would leave some people out of luck.

For myself I think the cutoff could be in the early 40's - ONLY based on a simplistic view regarding the cut off coming within the increased selectee range of 20%.

As for which theory will be proven right - well we have around 12 months to wait. With your number you are certainly in with a chance, but it isn't a certainty. Like many of us you will have to keep your fingers crossed and watch the visa bulletins to see how the case numbers progress.

I hope that answers some questions for you. Feel free to ask if anything is still unclear...
Click to expand...

Hi britsimon,

One thing is clear now, i was confusing the VB for 2013 with the upcoming 2014...so basicaly i have got another 12 months of crossing up my fingers:) but still i am confused witht the "current" status so: if it was in July 33k that means no one with a higher CN would not be processed at this point of time as they estimate to have enough selectees to grant visas for this specific region, if on the next month it becomes current it means that anyone up to 55k(or the last number for that region) is still able to get an interview as their estimation where wrong, or as you said people droped out or have been "filtered" by KCC?

Thank you,
dopos_d
 
OnTheGo said:
Usually, numbers turn CURRENT a month or two prior to cut off, which means all remaining CN's are still in the 'game'.
I just checked and for August the numbers HAVE changed to CURRENT:
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_6028.html

So I guess there is a chance of being selected for an interview as there are still 2 months left.
Hence, if this same situation was going to be the same next year, then based on your number there is a chance.
As discussed with other people here previously..the only reason they increased the number of selectees in the first place, is probably because they just want to have a greater pool of people to issue visas to, while the number of visas is the same, the work load per KCC officer is the same and the overall number of staff working there is the same.

I have my doubts that anyone with 40xxx or greater for EU could be confident of getting through.
Click to expand...

Hi OnTheGo,

I think i should have mention that i was selected for the DV2014 :)

Thank you,
dopos_d
 
dopos_d said:
Hi britsimon,

One thing is clear now, i was confusing the VB for 2013 with the upcoming 2014...so basicaly i have got another 12 months of crossing up my fingers:) but still i am confused witht the "current" status so: if it was in July 33k that means no one with a higher CN would not be processed at this point of time as they estimate to have enough selectees to grant visas for this specific region, if on the next month it becomes current it means that anyone up to 55k(or the last number for that region) is still able to get an interview as their estimation where wrong, or as you said people droped out or have been "filtered" by KCC?

Thank you,
dopos_d
Click to expand...


They adjust the case number limit/cutoff during the year, so for EU they might set the number at 5000 for the first month (to be announced in a couple of weeks). Then they increase the second month to 8000 and so on - depending how they are coping with the volume of work for KCC and the consuls. That process continues until finally they open it up to all numbers (current). Moving to current allows high numbers to start aos cases (people already in the USA on different visas) and in theory all remaining numbers could be invited for interview. Because of the additional selectees this year I don't think things will proceed exactly like DV2013. If July reaches 33k as it did this year that would leave 20k of numbers to be processed in the last two months. I don't think that makes sense, but no one knows what will happen for sure...
 
dopos_d said:
Hi OnTheGo,

I think i should have mention that i was selected for the DV2014 :)

Thank you,
dopos_d
Click to expand...

Yes, I DID understand that. As I stated, I was portraying the current year's situation onto next year's (the DV2014).
Which is reflected in me saying, I quote "Hence, if this same situation was going to be the same next year, then based on your number there is a chance.[..]." and here :"...the only reason they increased the number of selectees in the first place.." <-- which only happened for next year's DV lottery! Increase from around 105k to 125k selectees.
 
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After a lot of reflection, I've got a question about residency requirements (1) and want to express my concerns about the US tax system (2) - as I am more of a big picture person and want to cover all our bases.

1) Say we would be getting the green card in late 2014. I think they give us up to a year to travel to the US to initially 'activate' our status at the border. How many years do we have to not actually make the US our permanent home? Is there a limit? I have heard of several people who have a green card but live and work overseas for years..they just ensure that they enter the US for a short period of time once a year in order to not lose the status..but how long can this be done before PR status might be taken away?

2) I guess one major downside of not making the US our new home immediately after being issued a green card is the requirement for filing tax returns no matter what, and thereby having to declare all income from anywhere in the world, resulting in possible double taxation. Yes, there may be some tax credits for income tax already paid in the foreign jurisdiction, but that in itself does not guarantee that we will not have to pay extra tax to the IRS. For instance, when the local rate of tax is lower than it would be in the US for the same amount. Depending on the foreign exchange rate, our foreign income might also result in a higher tax bracket in the US simply due to exchange related 'gain' (even though we did not actually 'gain' anything, since our local income is paid out to us in local currency).

The incredibly selfish tax system the US imposes on every citizen (and permanent resident) is unheard of in any other country around the world! Literally every other country accepts that there is nothing owed to their tax coffers by their citizens from incomes derived overseas, for as long as they live offshore permanently! This is commonsense, since they do not use any US facilities and services and they do already pay taxes to the Government of the country where they live and work.

Yet the US has a weird citizenship based income tax system (as opposed to residence based)!

I just say: BEWARE of the tax laws! Before and after your life in the US (<--click)...as we never know where life might take us.

EDIT: The official statement on tax liability: http://www.irs.gov/Individuals/International-Taxpayers/U.S.-Citizens-and-Resident-Aliens-Abroad
 
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If they increase the case numbers at the same rate as they did for DV-2013, these would be the estimates (considering 35000 selectees for DV-2013 and 55K selectees) for DV-2014:
OCT- 8800
NOV- 11000
DEC- 14500
JAN- 17200
FEB- 21000
MAR - 25500
APR - 36000
MAY - 43200
JUN - 48700
JUL - 51900
 
Not sure what you are trying to estimate here, Bramb90 ... there are still no more visas available than there were in all these other years. The only reason they increased the number of selectees for each region (i.e. EU from 35k to 55k) is to ensure they will have the highest chance of visa take up overall. Nothing more, nothing less. If you check the visa bulletins for the past ten years, you will see a pattern...I don't see any reason to believe (nor does logic tell me) that anyone with a number higher than 40,000 would stand much chance, unless many with lower numbers decide not to pursue their cases or are rejected.
What's your reasoning for thinking they will even call in higher numbers?
 
+1
OnTheGo said:
Not sure what you are trying to estimate here, Bramb90 ... there are still no more visas available than there were in all these other years. The only reason they increased the number of selectees for each region (i.e. EU from 35k to 55k) is to ensure they will have the highest chance of visa take up overall. Nothing more, nothing less. If you check the visa bulletins for the past ten years, you will see a pattern...I don't see any reason to believe (nor does logic tell me) that anyone with a number higher than 40,000 would stand much chance, unless many with lower numbers decide not to pursue their cases or are rejected.
What's your reasoning for thinking they will even call in higher numbers?
Click to expand...
 
What is the email id from which KCC emails the confirmation for receiving of DS forms. I sent mine in May and haven't received anything yet.

May be its in SPAM folder . Can anyone give me the mail id to search for ?
 
2014EU0000**** said:
What is the email id from which KCC emails the confirmation for receiving of DS forms. I sent mine in May and haven't received anything yet.

May be its in SPAM folder . Can anyone give me the mail id to search for ?
Click to expand...


Their email sender address is: KCCDV@state.gov

I had sent our docs in May, too and did not hear anything for nearly 2 months...which is normal as they are really busy, especially towards the end of the current DV period. I decided to send them an email to request a confirmation and it took over a week for them to reply...make sure that you include your CN and (very important!) your DOB. I didn't include my wife's (principal applicant) DOB in the email, as the instructions did not say that. Yet their scripted response was that it was required. So I resent the request and it took another week for the final confirmation.

Did you send your docs via a courier service? Did their tracking confirm drop off?

BTW: You've got a VERY low case number! Congratulations! You should expect an interview before Xmas I'd say...
What are you plans?
 
2014eu00045xxx

Hi all,

My number is 2014EU00045xxx.

It appears to be far toooooooo high.
No idea to even submit application to KCC.
What do you think?

GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE!:)


Cheers,
basterse
 
basterse said:
My number is 2014EU00045xxx.
It appears to be far toooooooo high.
No idea to even submit application to KCC.
What do you think?
Click to expand...

Those are the questions you need to ask yourself first and foremost:
How badly do you want to live in the US?
What are your reasons for wanting this?
Have you researched the pro's and con's? (there is a vast collection of shared info right here on this forum...did you read through it for days, weeks..?)

As far as your CN goes...yes, I would say it is a very high number, yet there are 10,000 people with even higher numbers.

Personally, I have my doubt that anyone with a CN higher than 40k will stand much chance.
However, at the end of the day noone can say for sure! You never know...there could be many people with lower numbers who might not submit an application, in which case anyone with higher numbers will be looked at next.
 
basterse said:
Hi all,

My number is 2014EU00045xxx.

It appears to be far toooooooo high.
No idea to even submit application to KCC.
What do you think?

GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE!:)


Cheers,
basterse
Click to expand...

Of course you should submit the application!! It doesn't cost you anything and you can always wait to pay the first diversity fee!
 
Re :

OnTheGo said:
Their email sender address is: KCCDV@state.gov

I had sent our docs in May, too and did not hear anything for nearly 2 months...which is normal as they are really busy, especially towards the end of the current DV period. I decided to send them an email to request a confirmation and it took over a week for them to reply...make sure that you include your CN and (very important!) your DOB. I didn't include my wife's (principal applicant) DOB in the email, as the instructions did not say that. Yet their scripted response was that it was required. So I resent the request and it took another week for the final confirmation.

Did you send your docs via a courier service? Did their tracking confirm drop off?

BTW: You've got a VERY low case number! Congratulations! You should expect an interview before Xmas I'd say...
What are you plans?
Click to expand...


Thanks for the info ! Yes keeping my fingers crossed as the Sept visa bulletin only few days away . Plans are nothing - just to get GC ASAP. I'll go for my medical exam as soon as I see the CN dates. Then start preparing the I-485 package and then sit in front of the fedex early morning the day I can send the papers :)
 
prdx said:
OnTheGo, why do you think that?
Click to expand...

That's why:

AUG 2013 - CURRENT (JUL was 33,000)
MAY 2012* - 40,000 (APR was 32,000)
AUG 2011 - CURRENT (JUL was 33,000)
AUG 2010 - CURRENT (JUL was 33,000)
JUL 2009 - CURRENT (JUN was 28,000)
AUG 2008 - CURRENT (JUL was 29,000)
AUG 2007 - CURRENT (JUL was 23,000)
SEP 2006 - CURRENT (AUG was 16,000)


(*2012 was an exception due to the initial cancellation of the draw)


When you check all the visa bulletins towards the end of each DV period, you will see a pattern.
Mostly, it was the month prior to the end when all CN's became current. That tells me that there was still some room for more visas to be issued but not that many (plus there was a deadline looming, as all available visas have to be finalized by Sep 30th).

Then just consider this: The max. number of selectees (from which to pick for visas) used to be 45k (I believe)...they cranked it up to 55k for the first time EVER - why did they do that? Not because they have more visas to hand out, as that number is fixed. They also don't necessarily work quicker or put on more staff at KCC. Even if that was the case, the number of visas available is still the same. I think the only reason they selected more 'winners' this time is that they want to ensure they have a large enough pool of applicants in in case many applicants with lower numbers drop out or fail minimum requirements. I don't see any other reason, given the processing history. Why they expect more people with lower numbers to drop out or fail? I have no idea! I could also be completely wrong and people with a CN up to 45k might be invited for an interview in the end...it would be interesting to learn how many more cases they ultimately processed after all CN's became CURRENT (see above table), that would give us an even better picture.

Does anyone know if that can be looked up somewhere?
 
there was still some room for more visas to be issued but not that many
Click to expand...
I disagree with this statement.
The thing is that cutoffs do not necessarily have numbers behind them.

DV12, max number around 32000.
Cutoffs:
March 26500
April 32000
May 40000
June Current

There was major underfilling of all DV quotas in DV-12 program
here we see that max number was about 32000, and DOS requested cutoff 40000 after it was already set to 32000 in a previous month. Why? I think it wanted to unhide winners with numbers above 32000 up to 40000 to match the supply for visas. However, they made a decision not to meet it and as a result we see a major underfilling.

DV13, max number below 30800.
Cutoffs:
May 27500
June 31000
July 33000
August Current

Same thing. June cutoff already exceeded max number. Still they increase it up to 33000. Why? To cover possible underfilling, to indicate what numbers they need to open. However, they did not open any numbers. So, they will have some underfilling again.

Two last years they indicated they need additional numbers open, and they were not able to open them. So, they decided to open enough of them from the very beginning in DV-14. Not to have this type of situation any more.

So, back to the point.
Why they expect more people with lower numbers to drop out or fail?
Click to expand...
This question assumes they expect more people with lower numbers to drop or fail. That is wrong. They do not expect more people to drop or fail. They expect about the same amount of people to drop or fail.
they cranked it up to 55k for the first time EVER - why did they do that
Click to expand...
They did it exactly because they expect about THE SAME amount of people to drop or fail. They were not able to open more hidden numbers when they needed them. They were not able to fill the quota in DV-12 and they expect they will not be able to do it in DV-13. So they decided to open more numbers up front.
 
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