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Dv 2014 european winers here

ceskhermina said:
in this forum we will put information about the DV lottery 2014 CN:2014EU00044XXX :D:D:D:D:D:D
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btw...great idea with the EU thread...but may I politely suggest you change the title to say "winners" as "winers" sounds like *whiners* and THAT we are not! LOL ;)
 
OnTheGo said:
2014EU353xx

I guess based on all the discussions, we are looking at interview in a years time from now at the earliest.

Is it actually really the case that one can enter the DV2015 (if it still takes place), even though one is in the system with the DV2014?
I mean, theoretically, if picked a winner again but this time with a much lower CN, there is a chance to get an interview via DV2015 much earlier than the DV2014! It would be crazy.

Also: I read someone stating that if your country of residence is part of the visa waiver program, there is no issue with traveling to the US as a tourist while the DV application is in process. Is there some official information to confirm this? I will definitely want to enter the US a few times in the next 12 months, but would not want to jeopardize our DV application.
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Yes, you can put in for DV2015 regardless of being selected for DV 2014. But no, a low DV 2015 CN interview will NOT take place before a high DV 2014. The fiscal year for 2015 will only begin following the end of 2014 fiscal year.
 
Sm1smom said:
Yes, you can put in for DV2015 regardless of being selected for DV 2014. But no, a low DV 2015 CN interview will NOT take place before a high DV 2014. The fiscal year for 2015 will only begin following the end of 2014 fiscal year.
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Aaaahhh...you are right...duh, how silly of me. OK, that's it...3.10am and obviously my brain is not functioning fully at this point. Good night :)
 
Could you please help on calculating approx the interview appointment period?

Congratulations to all the selectees of the DV2014!


I am from Albania, and my CN is 2014EU00037xxx
Following the threads I have read and infos shared in the forum, it seems like I have to expect that [if i'm lucky: please God do so! :)] a notification message will arrive by march-april 2014 and the interview may be scheduled by mid-late summer of next year?
Could anyone please help me to figure it out?

Thanks and all the best to all! :)
 
Dibeta said:
Congratulations to all the selectees of the DV2014!


I am from Albania, and my CN is 2014EU00037xxx
Following the threads I have read and infos shared in the forum, it seems like I have to expect that [if i'm lucky: please God do so! :)] a notification message will arrive by march-april 2014 and the interview may be scheduled by mid-late summer of next year?
Could anyone please help me to figure it out?

Thanks and all the best to all! :)
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Well done for reading other threads. You are pretty much correct in what you are assuming - although I think your 2NL may be a month later... but it's all guesswork for now. Congratulations!
 
britsimon said:
Well done for reading other threads. You are pretty much correct in what you are assuming - although I think your 2NL may be a month later... but it's all guesswork for now. Congratulations!
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Thank you very much Britsimon :)... uh till next summer.. is quite far and a long way ahead ... I feel :( and :)... because when smn realizes that such opportunity could become true, can't wait to go for it and have that start.. but in the other hand, this long period helps to reflect better, prepare, explore, and get ready for the new life start in US...

I like this forum very much and it is indeed very helpful.. thanks to all for their contributions

All best wishes to you and your family and thanks for the post..

Aferdita
 
Well said Aferdita. That reflection, preparation, exploration will be a good thing. I can't help thinking that many people underestimate how hard it will be to restart life in a new country. I have been in and out of the USA over the last 20 years and it is STILL daunting for me - so I cannot imagine how some people do it with almost no knowledge of the USA...

So yes, get ready, and get good at being patient...
 
britsimon said:
Well said Aferdita. That reflection, preparation, exploration will be a good thing. I can't help thinking that many people underestimate how hard it will be to restart life in a new country. I have been in and out of the USA over the last 20 years and it is STILL daunting for me - so I cannot imagine how some people do it with almost no knowledge of the USA...

So yes, get ready, and get good at being patient...
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:) lucky you :).. well, we'll give it a big try... and I'm sure most of the people in the forum WILL, because it's their dream and when you have a chance for it to become true, yes we do go for it.. it's not easy at all especially for me (with no USA experience ) but, with a lot of efforts and God blessings, we'll make it!

yes, another benefit: learning how to be patient :)

all the best britsimon :)
 
Dibeta said:
Congratulations to all the selectees of the DV2014!


I am from Albania, and my CN is 2014EU00037xxx
Following the threads I have read and infos shared in the forum, it seems like I have to expect that [if i'm lucky: please God do so! :)] a notification message will arrive by march-april 2014 and the interview may be scheduled by mid-late summer of next year?
Could anyone please help me to figure it out?

Thanks and all the best to all! :)
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HI Aferdita, it will be a very very long year to go throu, i think your calculations are ok, but it dipends too from the speed of every month CN cut off. The 2013 was very slow for europe, my interview was in april (cn 18***). You will get it better by checking the Visa Bulletin every month ( http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_1360.html ).

Best wishes!

P.S. ( Dhe une, jam shqipetar qe jetoj ne Greqi athine, do doja qe eksperiencen qe kam fituar gjate ketij procesi ta ndaja me ju dhe te ndihmoja nese do te keni nevoje. Per gjithshka qe doni te pyesni ne lidhje me procesin me shkruani ne PM. gjithe te mirat)
 
big_HUG said:
... it will be a very very long year to go throu, [...] The 2013 was very slow for europe, my interview was in april (cn 18***).
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Wow...looking at your history in signature, with a relatively low number like you had - compared to OURS (18*** vs. 35***) that DID take a very long time for YOUR interview to take place...exactly ONE YEAR after your application forms were received by them!

I just took another look at past periods, to see when our number would have become CURRENT...
Again - ours is 35*** for the upcoming DV2014.


AUG 2013 - CURRENT (JUL will only be 33,000)
MAY 2012 - 40,000 (APR was 32,000)
AUG 2011 - CURRENT (JUL was 33,000)
AUG 2010 - CURRENT (JUL was 33,000)
JUL 2009 - CURRENT (JUN was 28,000)
AUG 2008 - CURRENT (JUL was 29,000)
AUG 2007 - CURRENT (JUL was 23,000)
SEP 2006 - CURRENT (AUG was 16,000)


So based on history, I'm not even sure that our case number would become current prior to JUL or AUG 2014!
DV2012 seems to have been an exception, this is when the initial draw was declared VOID and they did a redraw ... not sure how that relates to how quickly they worked case numbers then, compared to all the other years.

Now they increased the worldwide number of people selected for further processing, by 25% for the DV2014 ... but that does not mean they will work quicker or put more staff on (I guess)...all it could mean is that they want to ensure a maximum percentage of actual visa pick up (from the pool of 50k total number available).

We are grateful to be in, but at the same time I don't see how we could expect for NL2 to arrive earlier than it would have been the case between 2006 and this year! ??
 
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OnTheGo said:
Wow...looking at your history in signature, with a relatively low number like you had - compared to OURS (18*** vs. 35***) that DID take a very long time for YOUR interview to take place...exactly ONE YEAR after your application forms were received by them!

I just took another look at past periods, to see when our number would have become CURRENT...
Again - ours is 35*** for the upcoming DV2014.


AUG 2013 - CURRENT (JUL will only be 33,000)
MAY 2012 - 40,000 (APR was 32,000)
AUG 2011 - CURRENT (JUL was 33,000)
AUG 2010 - CURRENT (JUL was 33,000)
JUL 2009 - CURRENT (JUN was 28,000)
AUG 2008 - CURRENT (JUL was 29,000)
AUG 2007 - CURRENT (JUL was 23,000)
SEP 2006 - CURRENT (AUG was 16,000)


So based on history, I'm not even sure that our case number would become current prior to JUL or AUG 2014!
DV2012 seems to have been an exception, this is when the initial draw was declared VOID and they did a redraw ... not sure how that relates to how quickly they worked case numbers then, compared to all the other years.

Now they increased the worldwide number of people selected for further processing, by 25% for the DV2014 ... but that does not mean they will work quicker or put more staff on (I guess)...all it could mean is that they want to ensure a maximum percentage of actual visa pick up (from the pool of 50k total number available).

We are grateful to be in, but at the same time I don't see how we could expect for NL2 to arrive earlier than it would have been the case between 2006 and this year! ??
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Agreed on all you said there.

Re 2012 the speed they went through the numbers was probably the following.

On May 1st and just after a lot of people would have checked and seen they had won. Those people were later disappointed. However there were also a lot of people who checked and found they had not won. Many of those probably didn't even know about the fiasco so just assumed they had not been chosen and in fact, some of them were. So - there were people who were selected but knew nothing about it (until perhaps too late) hence the processing of case numbers went faster (since many winners didn't engage in the process).
 
Simon, that is a completely possible explanation of why last year the higher numbers became current so quickly - so an exception really!!!

It's also staggering that since 2010, it has remained the exact same number by JUL (33k), as if this was planned ahead.
I also agree with your conclusion in another thread, where you stated that you believed the top end numbers of each world region are unlikely to have visas still left for them by the time it will be their turn...of those who even submit later than others will have even slimmer chances I believe...as somehow after all remaining numbers become current, it must count when people had submitted their application forms.
 
OnTheGo said:
Simon, that is a completely possible explanation of why last year the higher numbers became current so quickly - so an exception really!!!

It's also staggering that since 2010, it has remained the exact same number by JUL (33k), as if this was planned ahead.
I also agree with your conclusion in another thread, where you stated that you believed the top end numbers of each world region are unlikely to have visas still left for them by the time it will be their turn...of those who even submit later than others will have even slimmer chances I believe...as somehow after all remaining numbers become current, it must count when people had submitted their application forms.
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The case number (not the submission date) is all KCC care about - so assuming your forms are in before your number is current it doesn't matter if someone beat you to complete the forms by two months - KCC don't care. I think they encourage people to submit early because it lets them plan ahead for the amount of work they have to do.

Regarding your point about getting to 33k - I think that is entirely planned. The staff numbers around the consuls and KCC are static so they know how many they can get done in an average month. It will vary slightly depending on submissions of forms and also on country cutoffs but pretty much I think they have their speed at which their system can cope. It is partly limited by the consular offices and then limited by the central organisation within KCC.
 
High CN number Region still current

Hello everyone, could you please consult me, i have read all the posts in this thread and i am still confused:( my CN number is EU36XXX and I am from Moldova, since the VB is still current(33K) for August what are the real chances to get my case being processed?
There are people posting numbers higher than mine and they are still consulted that if they get lucky they will be called for an interview somewhere in 3rd quarter of 2014... But if the cut off on Sept 30th will be lower than their CN how can they be selected after it...
 
dopos_d said:
But if the cut off on Sept 30th will be lower than their CN how can they be selected after it...
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Usually, numbers turn CURRENT a month or two prior to cut off, which means all remaining CN's are still in the 'game'.
I just checked and for August the numbers HAVE changed to CURRENT:
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_6028.html

So I guess there is a chance of being selected for an interview as there are still 2 months left.
Hence, if this same situation was going to be the same next year, then based on your number there is a chance.
As discussed with other people here previously..the only reason they increased the number of selectees in the first place, is probably because they just want to have a greater pool of people to issue visas to, while the number of visas is the same, the work load per KCC officer is the same and the overall number of staff working there is the same.

I have my doubts that anyone with 40xxx or greater for EU could be confident of getting through.
 
dopos_d said:
Hello everyone, could you please consult me, i have read all the posts in this thread and i am still confused:( my CN number is EU36XXX and I am from Moldova, since the VB is still current(33K) for August what are the real chances to get my case being processed?
There are people posting numbers higher than mine and they are still consulted that if they get lucky they will be called for an interview somewhere in 3rd quarter of 2014... But if the cut off on Sept 30th will be lower than their CN how can they be selected after it...
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Firstly welcome to the forum and congratulations.

First point the CURRENT status relates to DV2013 - nothing to do with DV2014.

OK about the predictions for how processing will go next year. Firstly NO ONE knows for sure how things will go. We can speculate based on DV2013 and previous years (excluding DV2012). As you mentioned, DV2013 is current now in all regions. In theory that means that all case numbers could be invited for interview. However, there is a limit to the number of visas available and so it is possible that some people in any given year would miss out. Because they process in case number order, those people with higher case numbers are more at risk of not getting a visa.

Typically there were around 100-105k selectees (winners). The fallout rate is very high but also the selectees have spouses and children and those family members get counted toward the available visa limit. This year, for reasons we are not sure about they selected 125k winners. (so probably 200k people with family members). There are only around 50k available visas - so you see the problem.

People drop out and never apply for the green card for various reasons (such as not being qualified, not wanting to risk starting again in a new country). Of the people that do qualify, some will be disqualified or rejected - again for various reasons).

Many of us try to predict where the cutoff will fall. There are some who believe there will be enough visas for everyone. Given that there were 20% more selectees this year - I personally doubt that.

At the other end of the opto-pesso-meter there is a gentleman called Raevsky who has been studying the DV lottery for years and analyzing the data. He is predicting that the cutoff for Europe will be between 31k and 38.5k (I think, from memory). Given that max numbers for EU are up to around 55k this year, that would leave some people out of luck.

For myself I think the cutoff could be in the early 40's - ONLY based on a simplistic view regarding the cut off coming within the increased selectee range of 20%.

As for which theory will be proven right - well we have around 12 months to wait. With your number you are certainly in with a chance, but it isn't a certainty. Like many of us you will have to keep your fingers crossed and watch the visa bulletins to see how the case numbers progress.

I hope that answers some questions for you. Feel free to ask if anything is still unclear...
 
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