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ceac updated

britsimon said:
The 67k filtered down to about 50k visas. If the same percentage don't return forms this year we would end up with about 85/90k with forms submitted - but that is still too many for the 50/55k visas available.
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I'm really stonished ! Nearly half didn't respond on dv 13. If the same rate is appliable to dv 14 will see lot of happy high cn's .
 
britsimon said:
That is not hard to "prove". For EU there are 4062 rows in the first 16700 CNs - roughly 25%. If all the cases were in then the only missing ones would be holes, and holes therefore would account for 75% of all numbers. So -since there are 46k selectees (including family members) with around half that in real cases (average of 1 derivative to each case) we would expect to see CNs up to 90k. We don't.

Raevsky is correct - the cases only get entered into CEAC once forms have been submitted, processed and are current.
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I don't think this is correctly deduced. If there are 46000 selectees including derivatives and there is 2.52 individuals per case number as raveskys data shows for eu, then there should be about 18253 actual case numbers for eu and if 70% are holes then we would have case numbers up to 60000 and we probably do. I'm not sure how you get to 90 k cn
 
britsimon said:
Yup, 12423 (in CEAC 2013 data - so perhaps a tad more - but then again the 67k is also from CEAC 2013, so these numbers are relative and both understated.)
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So that's why they drew again ! But genuine I haven't head that they did last year untill now ! You remember we spoke about it ! Or is it just the holes that's in my brain data ?!
 
Eucn said:
I don't think this is correctly deduced. If there are 46000 selectees including derivatives and there is 2.52 individuals per case number as raveskys data shows for eu, then there should be about 18253 actual case numbers for eu and if 70% are holes then we would have case numbers up to 60000 and we probably do. I'm not sure how you get to 90 k cn
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Europe is not the best region for this example because of U countries (special countries complicate calculations). SA, OC and NA are much better examples because they are uniform.
 
Eucn said:
I don't think this is correctly deduced. If there are 46000 selectees including derivatives and there is 2.52 individuals per case number as raveskys data shows for eu, then there should be about 18253 actual case numbers for eu and if 70% are holes then we would have case numbers up to 60000 and we probably do. I'm not sure how you get to 90 k cn
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2013 CEAC data shows 2.2 per case (8750 cases 19316 family members) for EU so the 46k in 2014 should mean 21k cases. The 4062 is 24% (4062 out of 16700). So for your theory to be correct 76% have to be holes, that would mean case numbers would have to go to 87.5k.

As Raevsky points out, other regions are probably better to illustrate the point, but the point is clear.
 
vladek15425 said:
So that's why they drew again ! But genuine I haven't head that they did last year untill now ! You remember we spoke about it ! Or is it just the holes that's in my brain data ?!
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I think we spoke about holes. The additional draw has been clear to me for some time...
 
vladek15425 said:
I'm really stonished ! Nearly half didn't respond on dv 13. If the same rate is appliable to dv 14 will see lot of happy high cn's .
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One third didn't respond at all and a further ~10% responded but then gave up, but as I say, that is built into the numbers already and it still means too many will respond, will turn up. I wish they had never increased the selectee count... or at least applied some common (non Siberian) logic.
 
britsimon said:
2013 CEAC data shows 2.2 per case (8750 cases 19316 family members) for EU so the 46k in 2014 should mean 21k cases. The 4062 is 24% (4062 out of 16700). So for your theory to be correct 76% have to be holes, that would mean case numbers would have to go to 87.5k.

As Raevsky points out, other regions are probably better to illustrate the point, but the point is clear.
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"The Pre IVO Technology (piVot) supports immigrant visa (IV) pre-processing at the National Visa Center (NVC) and Kentucky Consular Center (KCC), including IV case creation, IV package review, and support and inquiry functions. piVot interfaces with Consular Electronic Application Center (CEAC)"..,,"Diversity Visa applicants’ PII is collected when the entrants file the DS-5501 Electronic Diversity Visa Entry Form (eDV Entry Form) available online at www.dvlottery.state.gov, which is transferred to the CCD and then to piVot. Supplemental information may also be collected on DVs through the DSP-122 form mailed to the KCC."...."
 
Eucn said:
"The Pre IVO Technology (piVot) supports immigrant visa (IV) pre-processing at the National Visa Center (NVC) and Kentucky Consular Center (KCC), including IV case creation, IV package review, and support and inquiry functions. piVot interfaces with Consular Electronic Application Center (CEAC)"..,,"Diversity Visa applicants’ PII is collected when the entrants file the DS-5501 Electronic Diversity Visa Entry Form (eDV Entry Form) available online at www.dvlottery.state.gov, which is transferred to the CCD and then to piVot. Supplemental information may also be collected on DVs through the DSP-122 form mailed to the KCC."...."
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Right. But that does NOT say when the interface to CEAC happens and what the data has been shown to demonstrate is that the interface of data to CEAC does not happen for all cases (whether forms are returned or not) - and the suggestion is that it only happens when the the forms have been submitted and the number is current - and even then, not in 100% of cases.
 
britsimon said:
One third didn't respond at all and a further ~10% responded but then gave up, but as I say, that is built into the numbers already and it still means too many will respond, will turn up. I wish they had never increased the selectee count... or at least applied some common (non Siberian) logic.
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ok if last year dv with 109600 just made it to fill up 50k visas or may be not even according to the data that shows under
48000 right ? (hope aos is included)
now if the same rate of 1/3 occurs again in dv 14 so it will be only 11666 extra interviews extra to process on top of 109600!
so may be we sould reconsider the calculations again !
 
vladek15425 said:
ok if last year dv with 109600 just made it to fill up 50k visas or may be not even according to the data that shows under
48000 right ? (hope aos is included)
now if the same rate of 1/3 occurs again in dv 14 so it will be only 11666 extra interviews extra to process on top of 109600!
so may be we sould reconsider the calculations again !
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Nope - one third do NOT respond - two thirds do - so about 23k extra people (around 11k extra interviews)

The CEAC data (which we know is incomplete) shows 45k and aos is not included.
 
Exellent ! That brings us back to the previous debate we had about taking 45k extra this year. Its all about the responses to kcc from the selectees and it got nothing to do with sloner software !
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The software operates on the country with fraudulent records. There are many countries in Africa, Europe (Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Belarus), Oceania (Fiji), Asia (Cambodia). This is clearly seen in the new data CEAC.
Why are all of you shut up about Africa???? I think you just have nothing to say. Scary to be in a puddle ...
Simon, I'm waiting for an explanation. Why is little new data records in Africa???
 
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Sloner said:
The software operates on the country with fraudulent records. There are many countries in Africa, Europe (Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Belarus), Oceania (Fiji), Asia (Cambodia). This is clearly seen in the new data CEAC.
Why are all of you shut up about Africa???? I think you just have nothing to say. Scary to be in a puddle ...
Simon, I'm waiting for an explanation. Why is little new data records in Africa???
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What is it Sloner - what is your concern?
 
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