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ceac updated

You still can't see any increase in refusals ?
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There is not the correct data in 2013.
What is it Sloner - what is your concern?
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Although in 2013 there is no half embassies, okay.

Africa, 2014 ISSUED 2897 REFUSED 327
2013 ISSUED 7476 REFUSED 1337

I think it's the effectiveness of the new software. Dropping fraudulent records going back in KFC.
+ Reduction in quotas.
Vladek, quota increases in Oceania and South America, it's my idea.
 
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Sloner said:
There is not the correct data in 2013.

Although in 2013 there is no half embassies, okay.

Africa, 2014 ISSUED 2897 REFUSED 327
2013 ISSUED 7476 REFUSED 1337

I think it's the effectiveness of the new software. Dropping fraudulent records going back in KFC.
+ Reduction in quotas.
Vladek, quota increases in Oceania and South America, it's my idea.
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I think your first point about correct data in 2013 OC refusals is correct - 2013 CEAC data is missing data - particularly from the first 3 months, so I wouldn't jump to conclusions from the 2014 refusal rate to the 2013 refusal rate based on the first three months. Good catch Sloner.

On the second point, if I understand you correctly you seem to be pointing out the lower refusal rate in 2014 (based on those numbers which I am not sure I trust), but your point seems to be that the new software has done a better job in identifying fraudulent records. OKay, I'll accept that point but let's talk about how that would affect the process.

IF the software disqualified more entries that would create more holes. However, we know that there are 62k AF selectees - that number being after disqualifications. There are around 30k cases in AF region spread over around 116,000 case numbers. Right? So - about 86,000 cases are holes - correct? That is all interesting but we still are left with 62,000 people among the 30k cases. The software will have NO FURTHER IMPACT on those cases because KCC will not disqualify them after selection and notification. IF they were being red flagged by KCC (not KFC who make fried chicken) then we would see more cases being refused at interview - but so far we are not seeing that. Would you agree? SO - I don't see what you are seeing... Am I missing something?
 
I think your first point about correct data in 2013 OC refusals is correct - 2013 CEAC data is missing data - particularly from the first 3 months, so I wouldn't jump to conclusions from the 2014 refusal rate to the 2013 refusal rate based on the first three months. Good catch Sloner.
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Good catch Britisimon:)
mijoro, have you heard?
However, we know that there are 62k AF selectees - that number being after disqualifications.
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disqualification of that?
There are around 30k cases in AF region
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Now you invented this figure.
you do not know it.
The software will have NO FURTHER IMPACT on those cases because KCC will not disqualify them after selection and notification.
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Why then sit workers and check form? Many do not send the form because they do not know about winning.
 
Sloner said:
Good catch Britisimon:)
mijoro, have you heard?

disqualification of that?

Now you invented this figure.
you do not know it.

Why then sit workers and check form? Many do not send the form because they do not know about winning.
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"disqualification of that?" - sorry I don't know what you mean.

Ok the 62k is the number of selectees published by KCC. The 30k is a very rough guess for AF based on around 1 derivative per case. The one derivative per case is pretty accurate for AF region and we can see that in various sources including the 2013 CEAC data that shows 35k people for 18.8k cases - so just under one derivative per case. But the 30k was an approximate figure - call it 35k if you like - the point is still the same.

When KCC receive the 122/230 forms they "process" the form They use the software to enter the case details from the form and I am sure that some level of checking goes on and possibly red flags are raised on cases that look wrong - however, KCC do not disqualify cases at that point. The case would still be scheduled for an interview and the red flag might be investigated by the consulate either before, during or after the interview. If the refusal happens, it is by the CO.
 
okay. At what stage was disqualified 90% of the records in Bangladesh. Why in the Ukraine in 6400 winners receive visas in 1500? I know you do not know.
 
Sloner said:
I do not understand your words.
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The software has an impact when they select winner for the lottery and he gives the case numbers and he disqualifies fraudulent applications right?
After that he has no work to do ! Its the embassies that selects and choose to refuse or to issue the visas... Right?
 
now sloner i see you are mixing up the software that operate cumulates the data for 2013 and 14 !
and the part where he selects the selectees and kick out the fraudulents !
 
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Sloner said:
There is not the correct data in 2013.

Although in 2013 there is no half embassies, okay.

Africa, 2014 ISSUED 2897 REFUSED 327
2013 ISSUED 7476 REFUSED 1337

I think it's the effectiveness of the new software. Dropping fraudulent records going back in KFC.
+ Reduction in quotas.
Vladek, quota increases in Oceania and South America, it's my idea.
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i know its your idea but simon also said the same thing from the begenning he even insisted after the nacara thread !
that increase comes from there probably after notiecing over 1000 extra visas in the previous years NOT 2012!
and talking about that you remeber that simon mentioned that oc might be the only one that can go current i even argued about it !
 
vladek15425 said:
i know its your idea but simon also said the same thing from the begenning he even insisted after the nacara thread !
that increase comes from there probably after notiecing over 1000 extra visas in the previous years NOT 2012!
and talking about that you remeber that simon mentioned that oc might be the only one that can go current i even argued about it !
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LOL Vladek, I really don't care whether I get "credit" or not. I think Sloner and Raevsky have said many things in the past that I or others have been slow to understand. Sloner does have his unfortunate obsession with 2012 and the new software, but if we take that away there is probably some good information in his posts...

One thing about 2012 that interests me. The selectee numbers that year (on the infamous new software) were round numbers. I've described this before, but if the quotas are "signalled" by the selectee counts then 2012 would make that point very nicely. For that year the selectee splits (and perhaps therefore the quotas) quotas were AF - 50%, EU - 31%, AS - 15% and 2% each for OC and SA.

Sloner, do you believe that the selectee split is related to the final quotas?
 
The software has an impact when they select winner for the lottery and he gives the case numbers and he disqualifies fraudulent applications right?
After that he has no work to do ! Its the embassies that selects and choose to refuse or to issue the visas... Right?
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only a fraction of winners. Mediator can not be removed. With him fighting other methods. I gave a link. I think you have not read it. So you have many questions.
Sloner, do you believe that the selectee split is related to the final quotas?
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No, not necessarily. Look at the statistics and compare visa-winners in the past.
 
Sloner said:
No, not necessarily. Look at the statistics and compare visa-winners in the past.
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Yeah the problem with that is that the previous results don't necessarily reflect the quotas. For one thing, quotas on different regions may be at different levels compared to thei quota, and unless the quotas are hit, we won't know what the quota is.

Secondly, if the quota is introduced to the process by the selectee counts (as can be seen in 2012 selectees), then different regions have different success rates, so the final results are not necessarily what was intended.
 
just one thing to add ; the visa quotas are determined every year by us immigration law and therefor they are subject to change from one year to an other. there was a link on this forum where it was clearly stipulated... so in this case it might interfeer with our final estimations.
 
vladek15425 said:
just one thing to add ; the visa quotas are determined every year by us immigration law and therefor they are subject to change from one year to an other. there was a link on this forum where it was clearly stipulated... so in this case it might interfeer with our final estimations.
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Yes agreed - and I'm aware of the formula. However, I think it is gradual, meaning they don't generally change dramatically from one year to the next apart from the impact of countries being included/excluded.
 
vladek15425 said:
just one thing to add ; the visa quotas are determined every year by us immigration law and therefor they are subject to change from one year to an other. there was a link on this forum where it was clearly stipulated... so in this case it might interfeer with our final estimations.
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Here is the link:

http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...B/0-0-0-1/0-0-0-29/0-0-0-1083/0-0-0-1159.html

They determine the quotas from the previous 5-fiscal-year period statistics for which data are available.

I agree with Simon the quota follow a smooth transition from one year to another.
 
vladek15425 said:
Thanks for link it the one yes.

I agree its not a brutal change,Smooth transition yes buy for oc and as make quite a difference, i think..
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Yes agreed. OC and SA might get a good increase = they might have been underperforming against their quota and that would be why (in the case of OC) their quota of selectees was increased so much...
 
britsimon said:
Yes agreed. OC and SA might get a good increase = they might have been underperforming against their quota and that would be why (in the case of OC) their quota of selectees was increased so much...
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If they take 500 visas from AF and they inject it in oc it will get the curve very high !
 
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