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ceac updated

vladek15425 said:
The AP's of dv2013 that stayed like this until sep2013 are all out ! Means no visa issued
They automaticaly refused after the end of the fiscal year of the dv which is from october
Until september.
The ready's of dv2013 are people that never showed up to thier interviews. So their status on
The caec will stay like that ! Aswell as the Ap's...
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I actually think that some if the ready never even got an invitation or sent their documents to kcc. There are just too many of them in the lower case numbers for it to make sense.
 
I reran the full set of Readys and APs in 2013 in October and November 2013, after the end of DV-13, several times.
1. There were a few visas issued on October 1st, about half a dozen throughout the world. Some of them were issued on September 30th US time, but October 1st local time (status change date in CEAC is local time). But I am 100% sure a couple of visas were issued after midnight US time as well.
2. No other visas were issued after September 30th.
3. The only changes that were made in CEAC after October 1st were some Ready statuses removed from CEAC (including whole rows and also some family members of those who were issued visas). No AP removed, no AP changed to any other status, no Ready changed to any other status. So, all APs are still APs in CEAC data.
 
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raevsky said:
I reran the full set of Readys and APs in 2013 in October and November 2013, after the end of DV-13, several times.
1. There were a few visas issued on October 1st, about half a dozen throughout the world. Some of them were issued on September 30th US time, but October 1st local time (status change date in CEAC is local time). But I am 100% sure a couple of visas were issued after midnight US time as well.
2. No other visas were issued after September 30th.
3. The only changes that were made in CEAC after October 1st were some Ready statuses removed from CEAC (including whole rows and also some family members of those who were issued visas). No AP removed, no AP changed to any other status, no Ready changed to any other status. So, all APs are still APs in CEAC data.
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I see and I think that your uncovering of the discrepancy between the ceac data and the Warsaw schedule indicates the plausibility that some ready cases never sent documents to kcc.
 
raevsky said:
I reran the full set of Readys and APs in 2013 in October and November 2013, after the end of DV-13, several times.
1. There were a few visas issued on October 1st, about half a dozen throughout the world. Some of them were issued on September 30th US time, but October 1st local time (status change date in CEAC is local time). But I am 100% sure a couple of visas were issued after midnight US time as well.
2. No other visas were issued after September 30th.
3. The only changes that were made in CEAC after October 1st were some Ready statuses removed from CEAC (including whole rows and also some family members of those who were issued visas). No AP removed, no AP changed to any other status, no Ready changed to any other status. So, all APs are still APs in CEAC data.
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I remember on the AP thread for 2013 many have posted and said that they finaly got visas
Granted mostof them were between the 25th and the 30. But no one after !
 
Eucn said:
I see and I think that your uncovering of the discrepancy between the ceac data and the Warsaw schedule indicates the plausibility that some ready cases never sent documents to kcc.
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No, I think those cases who never sent documents to KCC do not appear as READY in CEAC. Otherwise CEAC would have all cases listed, but it lacks a lot of cases. Less than 67000 people listed in CEAC in DV-13. READY are those who sent docs to KCC, but decided not to proceed with interview, or were scheduled an interview which is pending, or just the status was not yet updated since the interview occurred.
 
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raevsky said:
No, I think those cases who never sent documents to KCC do not appear as READY in CEAC. Otherwise CEAC would have all cases listed, but it lacks a lot of cases. Less than 67000 people listed in CEAC in DV-13. READY are those who sent docs to KCC, but decided not to proceed with interview, or were scheduled an interview which is pending, or just the status was not yet updated since the interview occurred.
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Raevsky
Did you mean 67000 didt show up for their interview for dv2013 ?
 
raevsky said:
No, I think those cases who never sent documents to KCC do not appear as READY in CEAC. Otherwise CEAC would have all cases listed, but it lacks a lot of cases. Less than 67000 people listed in CEAC in DV-13. READY are those who sent docs to KCC, but decided not to proceed with interview, or were scheduled an interview which is pending, or just the status was not yet updated since the interview occurred.
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You may be right but still I think there is something odd with the high numbers of readies in the lower eu ranges. I just don't think that 39% of the first 250 eu case numbers spent time and energy sending their files to kcc and then a couple of months later just ignore their current status.

I hypothesise that all dv cases will be I the ceac for 2014 and embassies will schedule invitations based on the notifications from kcc. As every selectee automatically gets a case number by winning the lottery I see no reason for why their cases should not be registered in ceac. I have not found any documentation stating the opposite. So I courteously invite you to disprove this hypothesis based on 2014 data.
 
Eucn said:
You may be right but still I think there is something odd with the high numbers of readies in the lower eu ranges. I just don't think that 39% of the first 250 eu case numbers spent time and energy sending their files to kcc and then a couple of months later just ignore their current status.

I hypothesise that all dv cases will be I the ceac for 2014 and embassies will schedule invitations based on the notifications from kcc. As every selectee automatically gets a case number by winning the lottery I see no reason for why their cases should not be registered in ceac. I have not found any documentation stating the opposite. So I courteously invite you to disprove this hypothesis based on 2014 data.
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That is not hard to "prove". For EU there are 4062 rows in the first 16700 CNs - roughly 25%. If all the cases were in then the only missing ones would be holes, and holes therefore would account for 75% of all numbers. So -since there are 46k selectees (including family members) with around half that in real cases (average of 1 derivative to each case) we would expect to see CNs up to 90k. We don't.

Raevsky is correct - the cases only get entered into CEAC once forms have been submitted, processed and are current.
 
Eucn said:
You may be right but still I think there is something odd with the high numbers of readies in the lower eu ranges. I just don't think that 39% of the first 250 eu case numbers spent time and energy sending their files to kcc and then a couple of months later just ignore their current status.

I hypothesise that all dv cases will be I the ceac for 2014 and embassies will schedule invitations based on the notifications from kcc. As every selectee automatically gets a case number by winning the lottery I see no reason for why their cases should not be registered in ceac. I have not found any documentation stating the opposite. So I courteously invite you to disprove this hypothesis based on 2014 data.
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That is understandable.
No problems, we have more than enough proof on 2014 data
1. NA. We know that cutoff is more than 0, but we see nothing in CEAC
2. OC. We see 360 winners I CEAC out of 4215 winners total. Cutoff is definitely more the 500. That would mean OC numbers would last at least until 4215/360*500 = 5854 what is wrong.
3-6. The same idea for other regions.

So, your suggestion has been ruled out.
 
britsimon said:
That is not hard to "prove". For EU there are 4062 rows in the first 16700 CNs - roughly 25%. If all the cases were in then the only missing ones would be holes, and holes therefore would account for 75% of all numbers. So -since there are 46k selectees (including family members) with around half that in real cases (average of 1 derivative to each case) we would expect to see CNs up to 90k. We don't.

Raevsky is correct - the cases only get entered into CEAC once forms have been submitted, processed and are current.
Click to expand...

90k like 46k/2/4062*16.7k = 94k?
 
I just don't think that 39% of the first 250 eu case numbers spent time and energy sending their files to kcc and then a couple of months later just ignore their current status
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They did not necessarily ignore the status. They are just not ready for interview yet. Some of them will schedule interview later. And some of them will never schedule it.
 
britsimon said:
67k out of 105k - and yes that would include derivatives.
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Exellent ! That brings us back to the previous debate we had about taking 45k extra this year. Its all about the responses to kcc from the selectees and it got nothing to do with sloner software !
 
vladek15425 said:
Exellent ! That brings us back to the previous debate we had about taking 45k extra this year. Its all about the responses to kcc from the selectees and it got nothing to do with sloner software !
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The 67k filtered down to about 50k visas. If the same percentage don't return forms this year we would end up with about 85/90k with forms submitted - but that is still too many for the 50/55k visas available.
 
britsimon said:
The 67k filtered down to about 50k visas. If the same percentage don't return forms this year we would end up with about 85/90k with forms submitted - but that is still too many for the 50/55k visas available.
Click to expand...

Simon out those 67000 do you know how nany didn't show up?
 
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