Aug Bulliten

I live in Seattle. I have a friend (Indian) who at the time of that 245(i) thing asked whether I could join his friends who were hiring an attorney to handle 245(i). I cannot tell you the number of people, but I remember it was a bunch of people who belonged to his temple or church who were legibile for 245(i).

CoolTiger said:
My guess is as good as anybody else's.....
But I would be shell shocked if Indians constitute that high a percentage of 245i!!!!
I've lived in the Midwest for the past 7 years and I don't know of a single Indian who applied under 245i. (I personally know 50+ Indians who applied under EB)
Click to expand...
 
hmmm.....

so no one has any idea on how many 245(i)s actually filed. Let alone which country they are from etc etc. And everyone is just kicking around their ideas. I wonder how so many Indians really ended up here ? Did they sneak thru canada or Mexico ? The sheer distance of the two lands makes me discount this theory of large number 245(i)s being Indians. There are active agencies in India recruiting for the Gulf or Singapore or Malaysia. But not to Mexico/Canada (from where they sneak into USA).
 
i am observing that people dont want to even acknowledge that there can be a ton of indians in 245i ........which means there is not much hope in EB3-india.

i agree with unitednations comments......only time will tell the accurate data....right now we are just groping in the dark.......

unitednation:

i have one question for you, since Schedule A workers are current, even for india, wont they use all the EB visas which fall under India's quota?? (that means they will keep getting the india visas, along with EB1 and other categories....and hence PD of the retrogression indian categories wont move forward....because of lack of visas??)
 
245(i) category

United Nations, You keep insisting that 245(i) are EB3 - skilled labor. May be you are correct. But on what basis are you claiming that?

1) But most Indian status violators work as gas station attendants, as dunkin donuts attendants, at motels etc. Do you think any employer can justify (and USCIS will accept) that these professions need > 2 years of experience?

2) I looked at some old bulletins and back then the priority dates between EB3 - skilled and EB3 - other was not significantly different. I am assuming there was less incentive for someone to file as EB3 skilled and risk rejection?
 
Worst case scenario ...

gravitation said:
We do know that there are 300,000-400,000 245i labors pending in BEC's. If 70% are Indian EB3's, that's -by conservative estimate- 210,000. And RoW is 90,000. If we get 2800 EB3's per year. So how long will the wait for somebody with India EB3 PD of beyond apr 30th:

Due to soft country limit, quota will be limited to 2800 till RoW is cleard. RoW will be cleared in 90,000 /37,800= 2 years & 4 months.

During this time, 2800*2.33 = 6524 Indian applications will be processed.

After which -let's assume India EB3 will get some surplus EB3 visa numbers (let's say 20,000).

Years needed to clear the rest = (210,000-6524)/20000=9.67.

So, we wait 12 years before India EB3 touches May 1st 2001. These are only basic calculations of course.
Click to expand...

gravitation,

Making the assumptions that you have made, your numbers make sense. Having looked at it at a glance I can see the following loop holes right away -


- All the 300,000 or 400,000 labor cases in the BECs are NOT 245is. I personally know of thousdands upon thousands of regular (non 245i) EB filers in EB2 and EB3 from 2004 onwards that add to 300,000 the BEC backlog number.

- Even if a majority of EB3 245i's are from India, we cannot assume that 70% of all 245i's are from India. I am still surprised by that number. Even if we assume that 70% are from India, how do we know how many have been approved, how many are physically stuck in BECs and how many have been abandoned? No one can even guesstimate that one.

- Of the non 245i regular EB cases stuck in BECs a majority have opted for PERM. So the 300,000 or 400,000 pending labor cases are inflated.

In any case, the scenario for India EB3 is either bleak or really bleak. Whats the point in arguing about 6 years versus 10 years. Its bad in any case :(

regards,

saras
 
Last edited by a moderator:
saras76 said:
Making the assumptions that you have made, your numbers make sense. Having looked at it at a glance I can see the following loop holes right away -
Click to expand...

These are indeed very basic calculations and there are many factors not taken into account... some positive factor, some negative.

saras76 said:
- All the 300,000 or 400,000 labor cases in the BECs are NOT 245is. I personally know of thousdands upon thousands of regular (non 245i) EB filers in EB2 and EB3 from 2004 onwards that add to 300,000 the BEC backlog number.
Click to expand...

That's true. I had used 300,000 in my calculation, Even if we use half that number, we still get 7.5 years (instead of 12). It was not an effort to make accurate prediction, just get a very very ballpark figure.

saras76 said:
- Even if a majority of EB3 245i's are from India, we cannot assume that 70% of all 245i's are from India. I am still surprised by that number. Even if we assume that 70% are from India, how do we know how many have been approved, how many are physically stuck in BECs and how many have been abandoned? No one can even guesstimate that one.
Click to expand...
70% Indians hasn't sunk in to me as well. But yes, it's been an assumption here.

saras76 said:
- Of the non 245i regular EB cases stuck in BECs a majority have opted for PERM. So the 300,000 or 400,000 pending labor cases are inflated.
Click to expand...
I disagree here. 245(i) people don't file for perm. And they don't file for duplicates and they don't do labor substitution. They just had one shot.

saras76 said:
In any case, the scenario for India EB3 is either bleak or really bleak. Whats the point in arguing about 6 years versus 10 years. Its bad in any case :(
Click to expand...

Worse in my case. That was my only point. I'm not predicting 'X' number of years. just reasoning that it's many many years.

regards,
gravitation
 
unitednations said:
For a couple of months, i stopped posting on this issue because people didn't get it and kept opening a new thread hoping next month would be different. However, this has been going on for a few months now and I'm not sure people are still understanding how this is going to play itself out.
Click to expand...

UnitedNations,
The first time I read your conclusions, I was in a state of disbelief. I did not find any flaw in the logic, but there was a huge denial on my part, "Hey! things cannot be that bad!!". Eventually, -after running my own numbers- I became conviced that you were right.

Sure, nobody has the exact numbers. But... any kind of resonable assumption tells as that EB3 India is hopeless.

The sooner people get a grip on the reality, the sooner they can prepare their mindset to either hang on or make a plan B instead of gettting hopes up and getting disheartened with every visa bulletin.
 
Perm

I disagree here. 245(i) people don't file for perm. And they don't file for duplicates and they don't do labor substitution. They just had one shot.

gravitation,

You misunderstood me. What I was saying is that regular EB labors (NON 245i's) stuck in BECs have opted for PERM. The DOS has no idea of how many backlogged labor applicants have opted for PERM and hence the 300,000 backlog number in the BECs is not entirely accurate. I understand that 245is cannot use PERM.

regards,

saras
 
Bleak yes .. hopeless no ...

Guys and Gals,

The situation for EB3 India is pretty bleak but I don't think its hopeless. We can choose to look at it as hopeless but something has to give. 2 years ago everything was current, today things look as if it will take 20 years to get a GC. Things change in dramatic fashion and whats to say this immigration porcess will not take some dramatic turn in the future. Even if things do remain bad we Indians will deal with it because we are resourceful and having dealt with bureaucracy back home we know how to live in this situation. The only point in which I disagree with some of my countrymen is the fact that we have grown into a society that expects to be treated this way. I find that Indians have gotten to used to making do with whatever is handed out without questioning anything. That is why I find my self questioning this process. It might be a futile effort but I do not believe in just "dealing" without questioning and trying to fix things.

I am not sure if any of you read the latest TIME magazine but its all about India. The recurring theme of all the articles is that the boom in India is based in large part on the resourcefulness of its people. The infrastructure sucks, government policies suck, there is pollution and there is poverty, but everything is trumped by the will of Indians and their unique quality to "deal" with stuff and make the most of whatever is available. When people in India are making things happen against all odds, we Indians sitting in the US can defenitely make things happen with or without this damn GC.

When this process drags us down, all of us need to just look back a few years and see where we were and where we have reached. When we can get to this point we can get to the next. So there is no point in losing hope.

regards,

saras
 
Last edited by a moderator:
saras76..........we are not losing hope about ourself.....but i have lost all hopes about something positive happening for EB3-india in the next 2-3 years.........and thats a long time to stagnate our career....and our life to some extent.

there is no doubt that we will keep going and maybe better than before.....but i dont like to pin my plans on GC and go through all the compromises being with the same employer....knowing that not much will happens in 2-3 years time......and unluckily it is very difficult to find the right balance between "employer and co-workers and boss and job satisfaction" being in the same place for 4-5 years.....and on top of it we lose bargaining power since we dont want to jeoperdise the GC process
 
What we are losing ...

techy2468 said:
saras76..........we are not losing hope about ourself.....but i have lost all hopes about something positive happening for EB3-india in the next 2-3 years.........and thats a long time to stagnate our career....and our life to some extent.

there is no doubt that we will keep going and maybe better than before.....but i dont like to pin my plans on GC and go through all the compromises being with the same employer....knowing that not much will happens in 2-3 years time......and unluckily it is very difficult to find the right balance between "employer and co-workers and boss and job satisfaction" being in the same place for 4-5 years.....and on top of it we lose bargaining power since we dont want to jeoperdise the GC process
Click to expand...

techy,

Do not pin your hopes on a GC. I have come to terms with the fact that unfair treatment at work, loss of opportunities and stagnant careers are
part and parcel of this GC process. It has been designed this way. Ultimately it is us that chose this stupid process so now we have to deal with this crap. If we say anything we will be told to go "back home" and consider ourselves "lucky". Sometimes we make choices in life without really knowing the reprecussions. Personally I was way to young to think about the things that I now constantly think about and hence went into this GC process with blindfolds on. Now I see things that I never did before. Its frustrating but I am to far out into this process and have invested way to much to do anything. I think most of us are in the same situation.

regards,

saras
 
Last edited by a moderator:
I am with techy on this one

I think the process is inhumane and highly unreasonable.

1. People were/are held at Name check for 2 years. We are inside the country and true national security purpose is achieved only when FBI checks us in 2 days and not in 2 years. No matter how they look at it they can't be doing somebody's name check for 2 years while that person is still within the country.

2. The DOS and USCIS process the visa numbers per their will and wish. They waste visa numbers like a drunken sailor one year but in the next year stop movement for predictions 1 or 2 years down the road. If you filed GC before somebody else in the same category and same country, you should get the GC first if there are no delays from your side. End of discussion here, I guess.

3. The DOS doesn't offer any reasonable predictions about the visa number movement. This will help people big time to move forward with their lives without lingering uncertainty.

4. The same or similar provision is a joke. It stifles upward mobility. I can’t think of any situation where there is a punishment for people working hard and trying to move up in their careers. Why not take out the same or similar provision for people who are waiting for more than 2 years. Do they expect us to be an entry level programmer for 10 years in this day and age?

Inspite of all this I like the US as it's a land of opportunity and offers a real chance to hardworking people. But I have lost my respect for the government. We can't just expect third rate service from government agencies in the world's most advanced country. The congress does not seem to bother about real suffering. If only they spent 25% of the time they spent on Terry Schiavo and the gay marriage debate on true and fair immigration reform.....
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Time for a change!!

I am going through lot of the same thoughts about GC process. I have spent the last 8 year of my life in this country , if I did the same thing in other countries here is what I could get..

-Canada 3 years citizenship after entering with permanent residence which is cakewalk to get for most of the techies..
-England 5 years Permanent residency no questions asked unless ur illegal
-Australia not sure about this one but would be better off then here..

I feel its an eternal battle at the end of the day people are focused on themsevles be for votes like congress, lawyers for money and we poor souls for GC..at least I have the forum to vent myself.. :)
 
Yes its unfair ..

PHSESAaug said:
I think the process is inhumane and highly unreasonable.

1. People were/are held at Name check for 2 years. We are inside the country and true national security purpose is achieved only when FBI checks us in 2 days and not in 2 years. No matter how they look at it they can't be doing somebody's name check for 2 years while that person is still within the country.

2. The DOS and USCIS process the visa numbers per their will and wish. They waste visa numbers like a drunken sailor one year but in the next year stop movement for predictions 1 or 2 years down the road. If you filed GC before somebody else in the same category and same country, you should get the GC first if there are no delays from your side. End of discussion here, I guess.

3. The DOS doesn't offer any reasonable predictions about the visa number movement. This will help people big time to move forward with their lives without lingering uncertainty.

4. The same or similar provision is a joke. It stifles upward mobility. I can’t think of any situation where there is a punishment for people working hard and trying to move up in their careers. Why not take out the same or similar provision for people who are waiting for more than 2 years. Do they expect us to be an entry level programmer for 10 years in this day and age?

Inspite of all this I like the US as it's a land of opportunity and offers a real chance to hardworking people. But I have lost my respect for the government. We can't just expect third rate service from government agencies in the world's most advanced country. The congress does not seem to bother about real suffering. If only they spent 25% of the time they spent on Terry Schiavo and the gay marriage debate on true and fair immigration reform.....
Click to expand...

PHSESAaug,

I am not by any means trying to suggest that this process is fair. I will be the last to state this. For me this process has been worse than unfair. My 485 has been misplaced for over a year, AP applications have been lost and EADs have been misplaced. I work in a "caucasian" heavy industry and I get paid atleast $15-$20 thousand dollars less than people in my group. I have had to put so many things on hold hoping that the next year would bring the GC. This year I decided to try to get over it because every year comes and goes and the rut continues. I am pursuing my MBA, I am going to buy a bigger house this year and I will look into any business opportunites that come my way and can be done legally with a EAD.

I realized that there is absolutely nothing I can do to make this process faster. All I can do is try to make the most of what I have. Why should I ruin the present because of this process? I learnt this the hard way ..

saras
 
desp_gc said:
-Australia not sure about this one but would be better off then here..
Click to expand...

australia.....12 months PR......2-3 year citizenship ...

but keep in mind other factors(ther very reason why usa is number one destination.....no one even comes close to usa)

canada: low salary for techies, non-existant economy, one of my friend is working as SQL Server dba for $20/hr (canadian dollar)....he is just waiting to get citizenship so that he can move to usa......and start this process...

australia: i was there in 2001-2002.....usa tech crashed so did they....and there were no jobs.....zero ....cud not get even one interview in 3-4 months...
I hope they are doing good now.....aust is better than canada though.

england: dont know much...so please correct me it this is not right.... but if you happen to be in london....forget about lifestyle and life....prepare to spend all your income on housing....and prepare to spend your weekdays only for work.....since you will be using public transportation...

--------------

but it does not matter anymore......my plan is to work for 3-4 years as a consultant(IT).....save all the money......(in todays condition target is $150k..... 70k for housing and rest in interest earning deposit)......go back to india and find a job.....and leave a life of a human being with some dignity....(this comment does not apply to people who have started this GC process 3-4 years back....then nobody knew it will take so much time...)

i will keep applying for GC.....but i hope i will never compromise for the sake of it..
 
July Interviews at New Delhi

US embassy site at New Delhi just released July Visa interview schedules. There are 23 EB3 cases scheduled for interview in July. Total EB3 interviews at all 3 (Chennai, Mumbai and New Delhi) for July = 38. The same figure for June bulletin is 40. As we all know dates moved by 7 days for July Bulletin, yet the demand is nearly as much as that for July bulletin when dates moved by 5 weeks. We can guess with some accuracy what August bulletin for EB3 India looks like.

-Thanks
 
you have a good point

However does the EB3 list scheduled for interview include nurses? I think they come under Schedule A workers. Can you post the link to the website where you found the information.
 
HGB you nailed it

I am nearly 100% positive that nurses are EX. You are right - this means 5 weeks of pre-april movement = 1 week movement in april. Are we looking at Apr 22,2001 for India.

On a side note, does the 40 include dependents or is it just the primary.
 
Case Numbers

Each Case number created for Consular Processing may contain Applicant + 1 or more beneficiaries i.e dependants. I have a question regarding dependants of 245(i)s. If 245(i)s come under EB3 category , do their dependants also come under EB3 or in Family based category? Glad if some one answers.

-Thanks
HBG2001
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top