Aug Bulliten

EB3 World wide becomes unavailable in July 2005. This means that whoever is in the queue at that time got their visa numbers. May be there are people in BEC and in name checks. But BEC is not approving the cases at this time.
My question is that if cases until 2005 July are done then why the dates are not moving past 2001. How many cases do we think will be in the queue past 2005 July.
In my opinion all this doesn't have any logic at all. If this logic is good then the dates should proceed very fast now and move to at least 2003.
Ideally it should jump to July 2005 where the retrogression get started.
Any comments.
 
kamrans....so what you are saying is that there are no applicants other than the BECs and PERM.....atleast for EB3.

what about people whose labor was approved and they were waiting for I-140
and those whose I-140 was approved and waiting on name check etc for their I-485 approval....

we think there were not many??(before april 2001 in the above two status)

but what about substitute approved labors from past.......cant they keep getting used to use up 116 visas per month......i think thats a pretty good possibility...

can anyone explain....who are the applicants before 2001 April, who may be using the visa numbers constantly....??
 
There aren't that many ...

techy2468 said:
kamrans....so what you are saying is that there are no applicants other than the BECs and PERM.....atleast for EB3.

what about people whose labor was approved and they were waiting for I-140
and those whose I-140 was approved and waiting on name check etc for their I-485 approval....

we think there were not many??(before april 2001 in the above two status)

but what about substitute approved labors from past.......cant they keep getting used to use up 116 visas per month......i think thats a pretty good possibility...

can anyone explain....who are the applicants before 2001 April, who may be using the visa numbers constantly....??
Click to expand...

techy,

I would also like to know who is using up all the visa numbers for India EB3 prior to April 01. They are not being used up and hence the dates are even moving. They are being extra cautious in April because that is the projected bottleneck month. India EB3 dates would have become unavilable or would not have even reached April 01 if visas were being used at a fast rate. This sense of being extra careful is screwing 2001 PD holders like me. If April does become a bottleneck then in August India EB3 dates will not move. I do not see this happening. The dates will be moved to the end of April. This again will be a cautious move. Then we will be left with September where they may move it beyond April but they will not make any big jumps for India EB3 while it is in 2001. When the 245is do hit the system towards the end of the year we will all be retrogressed again. For 2001 filers like me its pure luck, for others there is going to be no relief till fiscal year 08 without CIR or some other change.

regards,

saras
 
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EB3 movement

For May bulletin when the dates moved by 1 month (from Feb'01 to March '01) there were 18 CP cases scheduled for interviews in all 3 Indian consulates. For June bulletin, when dates moved by 1 month 8 days (from March '01 to April 08, '01) there were 40 CP interviews schedules. For July bulletin ( just 1 week movement) so far there are 15 cases were scheduled for interviews (Chennai and Mumbai only). New Delhi has not come out with July iterview schedules so far. We do not know how many 485s are adjudicated here, but if CPs are any indication of 485s being used this may show that there is of demand for EB3 visas. Alternatively USCIS may be advancing EB3 to some preset dates, i.e 08April '01, 15 April '01, 22nd April '01, 1st May 01 just to be cautious. I do not think as long as there is demand for EB3, USCIS will waste this year's ( FY 2006) visa numbers. This is my opinion.

-Thanks
 
HBG2001 said:
For May bulletin when the dates moved by 1 month (from Feb'01 to March '01) there were 18 CP cases scheduled for interviews in all 3 Indian consulates. For June bulletin, when dates moved by 1 month 8 days (from March '01 to April 08, '01) there were 40 CP interviews schedules. For July bulletin ( just 1 week movement) so far there are 15 cases were scheduled for interviews (Chennai and Mumbai only). New Delhi has not come out with July iterview schedules so far. We do not know how many 485s are adjudicated here, but if CPs are any indication of 485s being used this may show that there is of demand for EB3 visas. Alternatively USCIS may be advancing EB3 to some preset dates, i.e 08April '01, 15 April '01, 22nd April '01, 1st May 01 just to be cautious. I do not think as long as there is demand for EB3, USCIS will waste this year's ( FY 2006) visa numbers. This is my opinion.

-Thanks
Click to expand...

if there are that many in CP, i would say multiply that number by 10 for Adj Status.......that means there are people still waiting from those days??
 
techy2468 said:
if there are that many in CP, i would say multiply that number by 10 for Adj Status.......that means there are people still waiting from those days??
Click to expand...

Yep. That's why India's EB3 PD is retrogressed. Don't believe any racism, xenophobic theories.
 
Connection ..

techy2468 said:
if there are that many in CP, i would say multiply that number by 10 for Adj Status.......that means there are people still waiting from those days??
Click to expand...

techy,

I am sure there are "plenty" of 2001 cases left but are there enough to bring the system to a standstill or for dates to advance a week at a time for years to come? I am not convinced although I may be totally wrong.

So far as the corelation of CP cases per month to the number of regular AOS cases, it sounds logical but I don't think we can put an accurate number on that. These are two completely different processes almost. With concurrent filing a lot of people chose not to go the CP route and the USCIS went on an approval ramage in late 2003, all of 2004 and early parts of 2005. I am not saying that there aren't to many AOS cases, all I am saying is that its not a simple corelation between pending CP and pending AOS caes from 2001.

If there are a lot of them then India EB3 should become unavialble before fiscal year 06 is done. If not then visas will go unused. Its as simple as that.

regards,

saras
 
Ofcourse not ...

gravitation said:
Yep. That's why India's EB3 PD is retrogressed. Don't believe any racism, xenophobic theories.
Click to expand...

gravitation,

Apart from a few random people, no one in this forum has come up with racism or xenophobic theories to explain this retrogression. Even the people who have stated this have done so in a state of sheer frustration. Everyone knows that the DOS is not biased against India EB3. However if one tries to say that this whole CIR and immigration issue in general has nothing to do with race then thats BS. Not everyone is approcahing it that way but there are enough racist organizations that are exploiting the current situation without actually stating their true stand.

Coming back to our beloved India. It is a fact though that the historically high demand for EB3 visas from India will always keep its dates behind every other country irrespective of the "actual" demand within EB3 India category. This will change only when most other categories become current. It does seem unfair but we have to live with that.

regards,

saras
 
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Majority of 245i are from India.

Majority of 245i cases are from India. I personally know more than 30 people who applied from one town.

All the illegal indians who work in Dunkin Donuts, Gas Stations, Restuarants, motels, etc applied under 245i. Employers were having significant benefits for applying for ilegals under 245i and both employee and employers had a win-win situation. Indians knew better to use the system rather than Mexicans when 245i was in place. Maxicans had surge only during final week and many maxicans did day to day to jobs without having one permanent employer so ineligible for 245i.

Anyway, it is my guess that more than 70 % cases of 245i are from India....
 
Hmmmm

PainCard said:
Majority of 245i cases are from India. I personally know more than 30 people who applied from one town.

All the illegal indians who work in Dunkin Donuts, Gas Stations, Restuarants, motels, etc applied under 245i. Employers were having significant benefits for applying for ilegals under 245i and both employee and employers had a win-win situation. Indians knew better to use the system rather than Mexicans when 245i was in place. Maxicans had surge only during final week and many maxicans did day to day to jobs without having one permanent employer so ineligible for 245i.

Anyway, it is my guess that more than 70 % cases of 245i are from India....
Click to expand...

PainCard,

For all our sakes, lets hope you are wrong. If 70% of 245is are indeed Indian then us legal Indians are screwed for a long a long time. Personally its a stretch to say that 70% of 245is are Indians. I don't think anyone knows the country composition of 245is and that is the root cause of all this "speculative" progression of PDs within the EB3 category.

regards,

saras
 
245is

My guess is as good as anybody else's.....
But I would be shell shocked if Indians constitute that high a percentage of 245i!!!!
I've lived in the Midwest for the past 7 years and I don't know of a single Indian who applied under 245i. (I personally know 50+ Indians who applied under EB)
 
No way! There're are 50 illegal Mexicans for every illegal Indian. Period.

PainCard said:
Majority of 245i cases are from India. I personally know more than 30 people who applied from one town.

All the illegal indians who work in Dunkin Donuts, Gas Stations, Restuarants, motels, etc applied under 245i. Employers were having significant benefits for applying for ilegals under 245i and both employee and employers had a win-win situation. Indians knew better to use the system rather than Mexicans when 245i was in place. Maxicans had surge only during final week and many maxicans did day to day to jobs without having one permanent employer so ineligible for 245i.

Anyway, it is my guess that more than 70 % cases of 245i are from India....
Click to expand...
 
i 245

unitednations said:
Many of the Mexcians went through the family route for 245i.

Indian status violators went the 245i employment route (it was difficult for them to go the family base route for 245i because many indians didn't have US citizenship and couldn't sponsor their siblings.
Click to expand...

This is correct, most of the Mexicans who used i245, applied through FB on the other hand most of the Indians applied through EB.

As far as the percentages, it is anybody's guess.

andy
 
I hope you guys are 1000% wrong

So under which EB category will these 245(i)s come ? EB-3 or EB-3 OTHER ?
 
Got it ...

andy garcia said:
This is correct, most of the Mexicans who used i245, applied through FB on the other hand most of the Indians applied through EB.

As far as the percentages, it is anybody's guess.

andy
Click to expand...

Thanks for the info. I guess the heat from 245i's will be felt by India EB3 then. I guess it already is being felt. However, the extent of the impact cannot be gauged right away. A lot are probably still stuck in BECs, others may have been approved already while quite a few might have fallen on the wrong side of the process. Exactly how many are waiting in the wings and how many will make it to the 140 and then 485 stage is anyones guess.
We will probably never know ... the point still remains that speculation will always drag India EB3 dates down. Even if the DOS sees a trickle of 245is from India or regular EB3 India cases from 2001, they will be extra cautious in moving EB3 India dates by more than a month at most pretty much through 2001. This trend will continue till they are convinced that the 245i crowd has lessed considerably or there is an immigration bill.

regards,

saras
 
We do know that there are 300,000-400,000 245i labors pending in BEC's. If 70% are Indian EB3's, that's -by conservative estimate- 210,000. And RoW is 90,000. If we get 2800 EB3's per year. So how long will the wait for somebody with India EB3 PD of beyond apr 30th:

Due to soft country limit, quota will be limited to 2800 till RoW is cleard. RoW will be cleared in 90,000 /37,800= 2 years & 4 months.

During this time, 2800*2.33 = 6524 Indian applications will be processed.

After which -let's assume India EB3 will get some surplus EB3 visa numbers (let's say 20,000).

Years needed to clear the rest = (210,000-6524)/20000=9.67.

So, we wait 12 years before India EB3 touches May 1st 2001. These are only basic calculations of course.
 
Wrong wrong

you know 30 people Vs 300000- 400000 cases of Illlegal based onthat 70 % total wrong. How many Indians you say in May 1st rally.

My opnoin is 1 % to max 5%. That's it.



PainCard said:
Majority of 245i cases are from India. I personally know more than 30 people who applied from one town.

All the illegal indians who work in Dunkin Donuts, Gas Stations, Restuarants, motels, etc applied under 245i. Employers were having significant benefits for applying for ilegals under 245i and both employee and employers had a win-win situation. Indians knew better to use the system rather than Mexicans when 245i was in place. Maxicans had surge only during final week and many maxicans did day to day to jobs without having one permanent employer so ineligible for 245i.

Anyway, it is my guess that more than 70 % cases of 245i are from India....
Click to expand...
 
There is no hope without CIR for EB3 Indians...

Only because of 245i...

Majority of us worked for corporations...so our friends also belong to similar categories....and we do not know people hiding in shadows...

But, I have lots of contacts of Indians who are running small businesses...Almost all of them employ illegal indians...illegal indians are more in shadow then maxicans...and UnitedNation is correct that maxicans used quite a bit 245i family route....I remember, when 245i came, illegal indians used it like an amensty....Infact, they had gatherings and parties to enjoy that now, they can adjust status here in US...

As everyone knows that majority of 245i cases are still stuck at labor stage...so, in the future situation will get worse when they apply for 485...

So, if CIR fails then EB3 india will be stuck around April 2001 dates for long time...currently, there is a chance that it can move past April 2001 since 245i have not reached 485 stage...but, longer it takes...we are in bad shape..
 
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