VSC 2003 by sampling scanning
- Thread starter nemessis
- Start date
nyte_crawler
Registered Users (C)
Status of ND 6/30/2003
Approved : 52 (15.4%)
X ferred :161 (47.9%)
Pending : 123 (36.61%)
Total : 336
This week i saw only 2 approvals and 11 transfers. Looks like the app / xfers have slowed down a bit.
Approved : 52 (15.4%)
X ferred :161 (47.9%)
Pending : 123 (36.61%)
Total : 336
This week i saw only 2 approvals and 11 transfers. Looks like the app / xfers have slowed down a bit.
Please help me understand the scanning result. What is the population of the scan, and what does the category mean? does RFE Sent means the online status of this case says RFE has been sent out. My online status still says FP1 notice sent out. Where will I fit into the category then?
Thanks!
Thanks!
tellmewhy said:
Assuming you are talking about nemessis' scans, the total counts and counts for each catagory are given in the first (upper) section of the spreadsheet. e.g. for 04/18/2003 he is tracking 302 cases, 106 of which have been approved.
The next section shows the same numbers as a ratio of the total number of cases for each date scanned (e.g. 35.10% percent = 106/302 of the cases for 04/18/03 are approved).
The next section is to me the most interesting as it shows the change in the % of "completed" cases each time nemessis has done a scan (where completed means the case is approved / transferred / denied). For example, for 05/09/03 cases, the % completed changed from 66.27% on 10/25/04 to 74.26% on 11/10/04. This shows us that most of the meaningful activity is currently for cases with NDs around the start of July with some signs of life for cases with NDs around the start of August.
The graph that follows shows the Completed information as a series of plots so it's easier to visualize what is going on.
The final 2 sections show fingerprinting activity.
Yes, "RFE sent" (or any of the other catagories) means that this is what the online message says and "FP sent" would be shown in your case (they don't seem to be updating the message when FP is sent much any more btw so most people who have received FP notices recently never see this message).
ETA
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Thanks ETA-GC, so the population of the scan is a random sample. Also given the fact that the online statues are always not updated, it does not necessarily reflect the true status of a case. It is a pretty rough analysis. But we can certainly get the best out of this data.
tellmewhy said:
I wouldn't describe the scans than nemessis is doing as random. What he is doing is "probing" the USCIS database for the status of cases on days which are roughly 1 week apart spread over a 12 month period. For any of the days that he is scanning, he has most, if not all, of the cases for that day in his database. The results can probably be extrapolated / interpolated to dates which weren't scanned to a large extent -- these are at most 2-3 days away from days which were actually sampled. I'm guessing that he has > 20000 cases at this point...
For the scans that nyte_crawler and myself are doing, we might only have 50% or so of the cases for a given day (some days have 400+ cases) but these are probably still giving us pretty accurate / useful information for that day.
Yes, because the USCIS doesn't always update statuses right away, the scans might show slightly out of date information (but, if anything, this probably means that the scans are showing a pessimistic analysis since they are missing some of the progress that has actually been made).
ETA
WOW ... I coudn't have done it better ... Thanks ETA-GC and sorry for not explaining in details before, I though is easy to understand the data ... anyway excellent job ETA-GC, thanks again,
nemessis
PS: the days I listed in the database are completed, I mean have all possible I485 ... for some days I needed to go as far as 7500 cases to extract ~500 I485s
nemessis
PS: the days I listed in the database are completed, I mean have all possible I485 ... for some days I needed to go as far as 7500 cases to extract ~500 I485s
ETA-GC said:
latest statistics for 10/23/03 cases
Last scan: 11/10/04
This scan: 11/13/04
# Cases: 196
I wasn't expecting much activity but I wanted to try out something I added to track changes to the LUD for cases.
Sure enough, 0 cases changed status but I did notice that 11 cases had their LUD change. The 11 cases whose LUD changed seem to be spread out fairly randomly -- I didn't see any pattern to them. It is interesting though that these were all cases with the previous LUD set to 11/04/04 and the previous status message set to "FP recvd" (it didn't change). The new LUD in all cases is now 11/10/04 (6 days later). There are however many other cases which had a LUD of 11/04/04 and "FP recvd" whose LUD didn't change.
This probably doesn't mean much (unless all of those cases get approved soon) but I plan on tracking the average LUD from now on just to track activity on the cases which isn't associated with a change to the status message.
BTW, the average change in the LUD since 10/23/03 (the day the cases were filed) went up by 0.34 days (to 174.03 days -- there are many cases still showing 10/23/04 as their LUD with "Received" for their status message).
ETA
Last scan: 11/10/04
This scan: 11/13/04
# Cases: 196
I wasn't expecting much activity but I wanted to try out something I added to track changes to the LUD for cases.
Sure enough, 0 cases changed status but I did notice that 11 cases had their LUD change. The 11 cases whose LUD changed seem to be spread out fairly randomly -- I didn't see any pattern to them. It is interesting though that these were all cases with the previous LUD set to 11/04/04 and the previous status message set to "FP recvd" (it didn't change). The new LUD in all cases is now 11/10/04 (6 days later). There are however many other cases which had a LUD of 11/04/04 and "FP recvd" whose LUD didn't change.
This probably doesn't mean much (unless all of those cases get approved soon) but I plan on tracking the average LUD from now on just to track activity on the cases which isn't associated with a change to the status message.
BTW, the average change in the LUD since 10/23/03 (the day the cases were filed) went up by 0.34 days (to 174.03 days -- there are many cases still showing 10/23/04 as their LUD with "Received" for their status message).
ETA
latest statistics for 08/25/03 cases
Last scan: 11/06/04
This scan: 11/15/04
# Cases: 189
Not much activity. Just one approval in the last 9 days. The average change in LUD since 08/25/03 was 17.12 days, mainly because about 8 cases went from "recvd" to "FP recvd".
ETA
Last scan: 11/06/04
This scan: 11/15/04
# Cases: 189
Not much activity. Just one approval in the last 9 days. The average change in LUD since 08/25/03 was 17.12 days, mainly because about 8 cases went from "recvd" to "FP recvd".
ETA
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MD_Rockville
Registered Users (C)
Can someone scan 07/14/2003 cases
Can someone scan 07/14/2003 cases ( EAC03209XXXXX )
Can someone scan 07/14/2003 cases ( EAC03209XXXXX )
MD_Rockville said:
FWIW, nemessis is already scanning 07/15/2003 cases. If you just want to get an idea of activity around your date I'd look at this date +/- 1 week.
As I've mentioned earlier in this thread, obtaining the cases for a particular date (unless someone already has these) is a *lot* of work -- you need to look at over 5000 cases to find the I-485's (for the dates that I'm looking at, this took me several weeks using a single IP).
ETA
Eta-gc
Does any one have all EAC numbers since July 2004.
If we can change the code only specific to 485, then probably we can track month by month instead of all cases, being USCIS had limitation of 200 probaly we can track month by month which might be 400 to 800 cases.
I can help us out.Let me know if needed for any help.
tx
dbwr
Does any one have all EAC numbers since July 2004.
If we can change the code only specific to 485, then probably we can track month by month instead of all cases, being USCIS had limitation of 200 probaly we can track month by month which might be 400 to 800 cases.
I can help us out.Let me know if needed for any help.
tx
dbwr
dbwr said:
I don't think anyone has all the cases from July 2004 onwards. Most of the people who have been scanning cases have been doing so for cases from 2003 and most of these are for individual days which are spead out fairly thinly.
Nemessis has access to proxy IPs I believe so he is able to update his 20000+ cases pretty quickly. Most of the rest of us are only tracking around 200 cases so we can update those in a single day also.
ETA
nyte_crawler
Registered Users (C)
Status as of today ND 6/30/2003
Status of ND 6/30/2003
Approved : 56 (+4) (16.7%)
X ferred :172 (+11) (51.2%)
Pending : 108 (32.1%)
Total : 336
Status of ND 6/30/2003
Approved : 56 (+4) (16.7%)
X ferred :172 (+11) (51.2%)
Pending : 108 (32.1%)
Total : 336
I've posted about this elsewhere but just in case:
If you haven't already done this, take a look at the latest processing stats at www.immigrationwatch.com. I haven't been a big fan of this site in the past (their data always seemed to be out of date) but they seem to be updating more often now.
From what I can tell, they are tracking the status of every type of case at every service center. See the attached shot for example. This shows the status of all cases which were filed in 2003 (87459 of them).
What I can't tell is whether they are actually scanning every one of these cases when they do their updates (as opposed to extrapolating from a smaller sample). I suppose its entirely possible that they are scanning them all -- if nemessis can do 20000+ cases by himself, someone could probably manage to scan even 2 million or more cases with enough hardware...
ETA
If you haven't already done this, take a look at the latest processing stats at www.immigrationwatch.com. I haven't been a big fan of this site in the past (their data always seemed to be out of date) but they seem to be updating more often now.
From what I can tell, they are tracking the status of every type of case at every service center. See the attached shot for example. This shows the status of all cases which were filed in 2003 (87459 of them).
What I can't tell is whether they are actually scanning every one of these cases when they do their updates (as opposed to extrapolating from a smaller sample). I suppose its entirely possible that they are scanning them all -- if nemessis can do 20000+ cases by himself, someone could probably manage to scan even 2 million or more cases with enough hardware...
ETA
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Correction
ETA-GC,
I think you're talking about www.immigrationwatch.com ...
It depends of how many good IPs they have available ... I saw many posts in the past arguing about the data immigrationwatch was providing but it always looked to me pretty close to what sbctsblc was posting and pretty close to my interpolation also, so I think they might be pretty close to the real numbers ...
ETA-GC,
I think you're talking about www.immigrationwatch.com ...
It depends of how many good IPs they have available ... I saw many posts in the past arguing about the data immigrationwatch was providing but it always looked to me pretty close to what sbctsblc was posting and pretty close to my interpolation also, so I think they might be pretty close to the real numbers ...
ETA-GC said:
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Sep2003VSC
Registered Users (C)
I was hoping to get my GC in the next 3 or 4 months but after the seeing the image possted by ETA-GC, I lost all my hope.
On an average only 15 or 16 percent got approved so far in 2003. And most cases got transfered.
On an average only 15 or 16 percent got approved so far in 2003. And most cases got transfered.