VSC 2003 by sampling scanning

nemessis

Registered Users (C)
#1
Since sbctsublc decided to stop his weekly reports I will post my weekly scanning for EAC03 cases. The data I have so far is obtained by sampling every fifth day for EAC03100 – EAC03215 (my date), EAC03001 and EAC03050. Even if this data is not as accurate as sbctsublc's data because of the sampling error, it can give you a feeling of what’s going on at USCIS. I used the same method for I140 and I was able to predict pretty well what was happening. I will also try to post weekly statistics about what they’ve done from a week to another. Unfortunately I don’t have Adobe Acrobat at work to convert to pdf so Unix/Linux users may not see the data but if somebody can convert it to be accessible to everyone is welcome to do it. Also if there are volunteers who can help me to do the initial scanning for other dates that will improve the quality of data/prediction we have here. I hope also sbctsublc will continue with his data so we can have a better idea of what’s going on at USCIS, especially in this period when they might implement some new things ...

I plotted only 2 things now: “Completed” means Approved + Transfered + Denied/Withdrawn. I also plotted the FP since that might be of interest for some of us. As we can see from the plot the frontwave of FP is somewhere at the end of June 2003.
 
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Jalma

Registered Users (C)
#2
Excellent job. Keep it up. I am not a computer guy, otherwise would have certainly helped you out with this.
 

nemessis

Registered Users (C)
#3
I am not computer guy either. In fact I am medical doctor, and I know that there are a lot of computer guys here that can help ...

I'll try later to add other statistics from the records I have ...

Originally posted by Jalma
Excellent job. Keep it up. I am not a computer guy, otherwise would have certainly helped you out with this.
 
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nemessis

Registered Users (C)
#4
more statistics

Since VSC may update tomorrow the processing dates I am posting here what they reported so far in time. Both charts show the delays between the report date and the processing date. Unfortunately the I485 seems to continously increase, but we can see the progress for I140 EB2,3,4, and a little bit for the rest.
 

mysunny007

Registered Users (C)
#5
nemesis !

YOu are too good . It is too much alarming to realize that graph for 485 is so much positve sloped . If this same trend continues - after one year , the dates will be 1000+ . It is pathetic .

You should send it to Sheela Murthy and Rajeev . They may use it in some AILA conferences . Not that tehy know this - it gives better feel of the data . Keep up the good work

-Sunny
 

vi00

Registered Users (C)
#6
Also send it to the Aguirre, Director BCIS, who so blatantly on uscis.gov, claims( memo 1 week old) that they have made improvements in processing time!!.

If you do decide to send it to that mislead guy, please use caution. Fools don't take advise well.
 

nemessis

Registered Users (C)
#7
Update with the last USCIS processing time report

It looks like EB2 maintains the same tendency of going down, EB3,4 same, but with a smaller slope, anyways progress in both.

I think what we are going to see at VSC is a continue of this big push to bring the backlogs for I140 close to normal and after that, I hope, they will use all the resources for the I485 backlogs.
 

nemessis

Registered Users (C)
#8
Update 5/10/2004

Only few “FP sent” changed to “Resumed/FP received” and few “Transferred” ... no big new “FP sent” also ... regarding the data before Feb 2002, is only 2 dates and many receipts no I didn’t scan in the last month, only yesterday I brought them up-to-date so the modifications for these 2 dates reflects the last month USCIS activity, most of them transfers though. I’ll try to scan them weekly from now, but we’ll need more points so sbctsublc, we’ll be grateful to you if you’ll share some of the data you have ( I485 receipt nos) for that period to have a better idea of what’s going on.
 

nemessis

Registered Users (C)
#9
couldn't upload the xls file first time

Download the attached file and change the .zip extension to .exe. It's a self-extract archive.
 

nemessis

Registered Users (C)
#11
Update with sbctsublc data

I obtained yesterday from sbctsublc his data, part of it I used it to complete my database of every fifth day for 2003. There are already in my database ~13700 cases and I think this is close to my maximum scan capacity ... If somebody wants to scan other dates I can send him/her the list with the receipt no. The data I updated in the table from sbctsublc is from EAC03001 to EAC03100. Since the last time he scanned was a month ago, that time interval is not updated. At the next scan I'll try to bring up-to-date everything. Now the picture about what's going on looks much better.

Regards ...
 

PhDchemist

Registered Users (C)
#12
CSC 2003 by sampling scanning

nemessis said:
I obtained yesterday from sbctsublc his data, part of it I used it to complete my database of every fifth day for 2003. There are already in my database ~13700 cases and I think this is close to my maximum scan capacity ... If somebody wants to scan other dates I can send him/her the list with the receipt no. The data I updated in the table from sbctsublc is from EAC03001 to EAC03100. Since the last time he scanned was a month ago, that time interval is not updated. At the next scan I'll try to bring up-to-date everything. Now the picture about what's going on looks much better.

Regards ...
Hi nemessis,

do you know if anybody is scanning CSC? If not can you teach me how to scan? :D

PhDChemist
 

nemessis

Registered Users (C)
#13
Download the attachment, Ctrl+z will open a macro, choose a date (EAC03xx, I don't know the format for CSC), and a range of numbers: 5001-51000 (they usually block you r IP after 1000 scans).

GL

PhDchemist said:
Hi nemessis,

do you know if anybody is scanning CSC? If not can you teach me how to scan? :D

PhDChemist
 

tmp

Registered Users (C)
#14
What's this for?

Hello,

I guess many people are scanning USCIS online status with script and I wonder what is the point of this?

When I try to check my own status by on-line, I often encounter that site prohibits to be accessed by anybody since organization or individual trys to scan too many cases.

You guys activity prevents individual from checking his/her chance & right. Scanning cases doesn't accerelate your process TAT. I appreciate if you could stop doing this...

Thanks,
Tmp
 

nemessis

Registered Users (C)
#15
The problem you have of being unable to access the USCIS site is because maybe you try to access it from work where others might do the same. The USCIS web site usually blocks you after 1000 recept no. but if you wait a few days you'll have access again. It's not our fault ...

Regarding your question of why we scan this data: is just to have an idea of what's going on, to see if we can make a prediction (even without an extremely precise estimation) of when we can expect to have the GC approved ... to know what we can expect for our plans in the future or to make plans for the next years/months; the same reason maybe for which you're registered here also ... no offense.

On the other hand, I asked several times for volunteers to help with the scanning ... if we organize we'll be more efficient so we won't scan the same receipt no like some people do and we can have a common posting, the way sbctsublc did. In this way we'll have a better info.

tmp said:
Hello,

I guess many people are scanning USCIS online status with script and I wonder what is the point of this?

When I try to check my own status by on-line, I often encounter that site prohibits to be accessed by anybody since organization or individual trys to scan too many cases.

You guys activity prevents individual from checking his/her chance & right. Scanning cases doesn't accerelate your process TAT. I appreciate if you could stop doing this...

Thanks,
Tmp
 
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nemessis

Registered Users (C)
#16
5/17/2004 snapshot

The update has 2 worksheets:
- first shows the snapshot of the sampling dates like the previous ones
- in the second I plotted the differences from the previous week, to get a feeling of what USCIS was doing last week. The EAC03 <100 were from sbctsublsc and the rec no weren’t scanned in the last month so the relatively big movement seen there is because is from the last month. Other than that only a few FP sent converted in FP received and few transfers. Many of the approvals from EAC<100 were between May 10 and May13. If you wonder why some transfers for some dates have negative numbers: after the transfer was received by local USCIS office some of them are converted back as Received, so I took them out of the Q because they are no longer a problem of VSC center.
 
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nemessis

Registered Users (C)
#18
Update 5/30/2004

I think I got too excited too early, I cannot say that this week it was a rain of approvals ... but significant movement anyways. I combined the weekly scanning by sampling with the time reports from VSC in a single table so ppl don’t need to download twice.

First spreadsheet is the snapshot of the sampling dates with the status for FP – some movement in Nov 2002 – mid Feb 2003, sporadic events after that. 28 approvals, 57 transfers, 40 RFE sent, business as usual, maybe the approvals are a slightly higher. The only relatively significant no of approvals – end of May 2003 and mid July 2003. They might be the ones with I140 not adjud yet and with FP done (there were few FP sent in the past for July, see the FP chart for more details, where there is that small peak – although all these approvals from July were RFE recvd before)

In the FP data – no significant development. On the other hand several “Received” changed to “FP recvd” that shows that the online system might be not updated in real time like they used to do before May 1st (or before they changed the WEB site).

The next 2 spreadsheets ... I140 times go down, I 485 continues to go up with the same speed (now it’s beyond 800 days).

I was trying to see if there is any significant pattern or difference in patterns in I485 approvals: in the last spreadsheet (Pattern recogn) I listed the approval times for each date sampled. In the bottom are the no of days between the filling and approvals. Does anybody see a pattern/change in pattern after May 1st? Maybe there are statisticians among us that can help interpret this ....
 
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