VSC 2003 by sampling scanning

[ETA-GC]

Hey all.

IMO we should just use the thread that is already in the I-485 section (http://www.immigrationportal.com/showthread.php?p=989471#post989471) for future scan results instead of posting results here and then updating the I-485 thread to let people know there are new scans available.

I put my latest scan results there just now.

In fact, I don't really see the point in having a tracker sub-forum at all -- we're asking people to use the consolidated tracker now and most of the threads here should be dead (and we should just move the few remaining active sticky threads into the I-485 forum).

Can we consider this thread locked?

ETA

 

[pipladi]

congratulations

Excellent job. Keep it up. I am not a computer guy, otherwise would have certainly helped you out with this.

Jalma:I am glad to note that your I-485 got cleared.I just got my FP notice for 12/7.My ND is 8/13/03 so probably it will take another 1 year for I-485 to be cleared.Only very few people from 8/03 got FP notice whereas oct,nov,dec/03 people already cleared their FP and I-485as well.6,7,&8/03 are the most unlucky ones with nothing happening not even FP notice.I don't understand why.

 

[pipladi]

help me

HI!
can any gurus run scan on 8-13-03 cases?I could not perform scan due to my limited computer skills.I hope we have some expert with or around that I-485 receipt dates.can you please help ETA-GC?

 

[nemessis]

ETA-GC,

You're quite a guy ... just look back to see how many times your posted scans were downloaded compared with what I post. Initially was 1:5 but now it looks like > 1:10. No offense ... if you don't like the thread please don't post here, create your own ... I created this thread to replace somehow the vacuum left by scbtsublc, I'll continue to post here ... whoever doesn't like it is invited to not download the scans ... as I promised before starting Dec I'll resume the normal schedule with my scans.

Hey all.

IMO we should just use the thread that is already in the I-485 section (http://www.immigrationportal.com/showthread.php?p=989471#post989471) for future scan results instead of posting results here and then updating the I-485 thread to let people know there are new scans available.

I put my latest scan results there just now.

In fact, I don't really see the point in having a tracker sub-forum at all -- we're asking people to use the consolidated tracker now and most of the threads here should be dead (and we should just move the few remaining active sticky threads into the I-485 forum).

Can we consider this thread locked?

ETA

 

[ETA-GC]

I'll continue to post here ... whoever doesn't like it is invited to not download the scans ... as I promised before starting Dec I'll resume the normal schedule with my scans.

If you don't want to close this thread then I'll continue to put scans here also -- it makes more sense to have a single place for these IMO.

The reason I thought that we should move this thread to the I-485 section are 2-fold.

First, things that are posted here don't get as much visibility. For example, if someone posts an update in this thread, then someone else posts something in the EB1 thread, it's no longer possible to see from the I-485 forum that there are new scan results. I have a feeling that I lot of people don't know about this thread and IMO the scans that you've been doing are one of the most valuable resources that this forum has and should be as visible as possible.

Second, a while back someone (not me) created a sticky in the I-485 forum (http://www.immigrationportal.com/showthread.php?t=148288) based on a thread that I started called "Updated scan of I-485 cases available". I could stop updating that thread but what I have been doing is updating it every time something gets posted here which is duplicate work.

So, wouldn't it be better just to use that new thread and close this one in order to address both of these issues?

I actually think that this entire sub-forum should go away but that's for the moderators to decide. IMO, having this sub-forum just confuses things -- people are always posting in it by mistake or trying to start new trackers when the goal / hope is to have people use the consolidated trackers...

ETA

 

[ETA-GC]

HI!
can any gurus run scan on 8-13-03 cases?I could not perform scan due to my limited computer skills.I hope we have some expert with or around that I-485 receipt dates.can you please help ETA-GC?

Nemessis is already scanning 08/12/03 cases -- can you use that data instead (it's close enough to 08/13/03 that you can probably just extrapolate the results).

Finding all the cases for a specific day can take weeks so this isn't something that most people are going to be willing to do...

ETA

 

[nemessis]

OK, so maybe you're right ... I don't know how to move it in the I485 thread ... if you know how to do that let me know
nemessis

PS: as a partial update there is a huge activity for Aug-Sept, I don't understand exactly why July is slower ... we'll post full results on Monday and we'll comment after that.

If you don't want to close this thread then I'll continue to put scans here also -- it makes more sense to have a single place for these IMO.

The reason I thought that we should move this thread to the I-485 section are 2-fold.

First, things that are posted here don't get as much visibility. For example, if someone posts an update in this thread, then someone else posts something in the EB1 thread, it's no longer possible to see from the I-485 forum that there are new scan results. I have a feeling that I lot of people don't know about this thread and IMO the scans that you've been doing are one of the most valuable resources that this forum has and should be as visible as possible.

Second, a while back someone (not me) created a sticky in the I-485 forum (http://www.immigrationportal.com/showthread.php?t=148288) based on a thread that I started called "Updated scan of I-485 cases available". I could stop updating that thread but what I have been doing is updating it every time something gets posted here which is duplicate work.

So, wouldn't it be better just to use that new thread and close this one in order to address both of these issues?

I actually think that this entire sub-forum should go away but that's for the moderators to decide. IMO, having this sub-forum just confuses things -- people are always posting in it by mistake or trying to start new trackers when the goal / hope is to have people use the consolidated trackers...

ETA

 

[ETA-GC]

OK, so maybe you're right ... I don't know how to move it in the I485 thread ... if you know how to do that let me know

I think it would be ok to just post future results there (http://www.immigrationportal.com/showthread.php?t=148288&page=2) -- I don't think we need to move the old posts over. I could edit the first post in that thread to mention that this thread is now closed but that old scans are still available here (I don't think too many people will need those though).

PS: as a partial update there is a huge activity for Aug-Sept, I don't understand exactly why July is slower ... we'll post full results on Monday and we'll comment after that.

Hopefully the wave will move into October soon (my ND: 10/23/03) .

I believe that Aug/Sep have quite a few cases compated to other months btw, so things might slow down a bit, especially with the holidays coming before October is reached:

Number of VSC I-485 cases in 2003 by month:

Jan 9022
Feb 6412
Mar 9562
Apr 8605
May 6928
Jun 6546
Jul 6434
Aug 8482
Sep 8774
Oct 6210
Nov 5220
Dec 5264

ETA

 

[nemessis]

Update 12/6/2004

Added the last 3 more dates so now the 2003 is complete ... very good activity for June-Sept, and maybe Oct ... I used the last full scan from 10/25/2004 to do the comparison. The last 3 dates had no diff_prev_post data because are newly added. I'll resume the normal scanning schedule since I won't be so busy, at least twice/month.
nemessis

PS: the last scan is plotted in red, the previous one in black

PS2: the corrected version is below ...

 

[MD_Rockville]

Added the last 3 more dates so now the 2003 is complete ... very good activity for June-Sept, and maybe Oct ... I used the last full scan from 10/25/2004 to do the comparison. The last 3 dates had no diff_prev_post data because are newly added. I'll resume the normal scanning schedule since I won't be so busy, at least twice/month.
nemessis

PS: the last scan is plotted in red, the previous one in black

indeed very good activity for June-Sept

 

[ETA-GC]

Added the last 3 more dates so now the 2003 is complete ... very good activity for June-Sept, and maybe Oct ... I used the last full scan from 10/25/2004 to do the comparison. The last 3 dates had no diff_prev_post data because are newly added. I'll resume the normal scanning schedule since I won't be so busy, at least twice/month.
nemessis

PS: the last scan is plotted in red, the previous one in black

Thanks Nemessis!

I noticed a couple of minor errors in the new data (the ratios for the last 2 dates were going off the wrong totals so these were all about 50% higher than they should be). I fixed those in this version of the spreadsheet (see my PM for more info). I haven't figured out how to fix the graph yet -- it looks like this isn't updated automatically if the source data changes?

Update: removed my version -- see final corrected version later in this thread.

ETA

 

[nemessis]

Thanks,

Sorry ... I did copy and paste to extend the formula and I forgot to modify after that ... The graph just reads the values from the columnsso it should be OK. TYour version should be fine now ...

Thanks again,
nemessis

Thanks Nemessis!

I noticed a couple of minor errors in the new data (the ratios for the last 2 dates were going off the wrong totals so these were all about 50% higher than they should be). I fixed those in this version of the spreadsheet (see my PM for more info). I haven't figured out how to fix the graph yet -- it looks like this isn't updated automatically if the source data changes?

ETA

 

[ETA-GC]

Thanks,

Sorry ... I did copy and paste to extend the formula and I forgot to modify after that ... The graph just reads the values from the columnsso it should be OK. TYour version should be fine now ...

Thanks again,
nemessis

Hmm, from what I can tell it's using the old values, causing a "spike" at the end of the most recent plot (the red line) that shouldn't be there.

ETA

 

[nemessis]

Yeap ... you're right ... here is the corrected version ... sorry ... I'll delete the other one ... Thx
nemessis

Hmm, from what I can tell it's using the old values, causing a "spike" at the end of the most recent plot (the red line) that shouldn't be there.

ETA

 

[antonl]

I think this thread should continue

OK, so maybe you're right ... I don't know how to move it in the I485 thread ... if you know how to do that let me know
nemessis

I have been a silent follower of this thread from its beginning. Here are my 2 cents, respectfully:

Nemessis, I think your analysis has a unique value to the community. As such I think that this thread, with its clearly descriptive title, should continue. As you said it yourself, you are filling the vacuum left by scbtsublc, moreover, your graphic representation of the data has no match anywhere on the web. I don't think it would be a good idea to "dilute" its significance by posting it mixed up with other, very incomplete, data. It should stay as a separate thread.

At the same time ETA-GC has very valid points that your postings do not have as much visibility as they could/should, and a sticky in the I-485 forum, instead of the tracker subforum, would improve that. He also pointed out correctly that the I-485 tracker subforum is not used as much anymore due to the consolidated tracker. However, I don't think that posting in the thread that he proposed, titled "updated scan of I-485 cases available" is a good idea. The reason, in my opinion and going back to my first point, is that the focus and postings in that thread would "dilute" the visibility of the data, thus defeating the purpose of moving the posts.

The best solution would be to move this entire thread out of the tracker subforum and as sticky into the I-485 forum, which is what nemessis had mentioned. If that is not possible, here is a compromise:
Nemessis creates a sticky thread in the I-485 forum with the same title as this one (i.e. VSC by sample scanning). In the first post you explain the purpose, a bit of background/history and a link to this thread for anyone who is interested in looking at previous posts.
At the same time Nemessis posts here a link to the new thread just created, with a brief explanation. This would be the last post and then this thread becomes permanently locked.

A seamless transition, wouldn't you think?

 

[antonl]

Re-focus the thread?

One more point I would like to make about the proposal in the previous post, is that it offers the chance to refocus the thread back to its original intent. In my opinion the value of nemessis' data is in its combination of scope, statistical significance due to an excellent sampling method, and the historical perspective due to superimposing the graphs with data from previous scans.

All this makes it very different from the tracker, or from data from a few scattered individual full day scans:
On the one hand, the tracker depends heavily on the many individual posters to update their data, whereas nemessis' data is "user independent". Also, compared to this, the tracker has a very small number of data points which are not as homogeneously distributed. All this makes it very anecdotal in nature, with no statistical significance or historical perspective and gross inaccuracies.
On the other hand reports from a few individual full day scans, although very important to the individuals affected, are not representative of anything but the specific data point involved. Moreover, repeating those scans every few days does not improve the statistical significance or give any indication of the progress for the overall time frame that nemessis is scanning. Again, those are only relevant to those particular days and the individuals affected.

Consequently it might be a good idea to post those individual day scans in a different thread than nemessis' sampling data (for example in the thread proposed by ETA-GC?) and keep the new nemessis thread re-focused on overall sampling scanning, trends and related discussions.

what dou you think?

 

[ETA-GC]

The best solution would be to move this entire thread out of the tracker subforum and as sticky into the I-485 forum, which is what nemessis had mentioned. If that is not possible, here is a compromise:
Nemessis creates a sticky thread in the I-485 forum with the same title as this one (i.e. VSC by sample scanning). In the first post you explain the purpose, a bit of background/history and a link to this thread for anyone who is interested in looking at previous posts.
At the same time Nemessis posts here a link to the new thread just created, with a brief explanation. This would be the last post and then this thread becomes permanently locked.

Sounds good to me.

ETA

 

[nemessis]

Thanks for your views ... I e-mailed to monica, the admin, about moving the thread, I am still waiting an answer ... maybe joyd can help if he's still around ... if not at my next posting I'll create the new thread in the 485 forum.
Thanks again
nemessis

I have been a silent follower of this thread from its beginning. Here are my 2 cents, respectfully:

Nemessis, I think your analysis has a unique value to the community. As such I think that this thread, with its clearly descriptive title, should continue. As you said it yourself, you are filling the vacuum left by scbtsublc, moreover, your graphic representation of the data has no match anywhere on the web. I don't think it would be a good idea to "dilute" its significance by posting it mixed up with other, very incomplete, data. It should stay as a separate thread.

At the same time ETA-GC has very valid points that your postings do not have as much visibility as they could/should, and a sticky in the I-485 forum, instead of the tracker subforum, would improve that. He also pointed out correctly that the I-485 tracker subforum is not used as much anymore due to the consolidated tracker. However, I don't think that posting in the thread that he proposed, titled "updated scan of I-485 cases available" is a good idea. The reason, in my opinion and going back to my first point, is that the focus and postings in that thread would "dilute" the visibility of the data, thus defeating the purpose of moving the posts.

The best solution would be to move this entire thread out of the tracker subforum and as sticky into the I-485 forum, which is what nemessis had mentioned. If that is not possible, here is a compromise:
Nemessis creates a sticky thread in the I-485 forum with the same title as this one (i.e. VSC by sample scanning). In the first post you explain the purpose, a bit of background/history and a link to this thread for anyone who is interested in looking at previous posts.
At the same time Nemessis posts here a link to the new thread just created, with a brief explanation. This would be the last post and then this thread becomes permanently locked.

A seamless transition, wouldn't you think?

 

[nemessis]

Case trasffered to Philly ... god damn it ... the only reason this could be is change of address and the fact that my wife lives in Boston now.

I'll stop the scanning here since it doesn't have any value for me anymore so in the case somebody wants to take over, pm me to send the database.

 

[ETA-GC]

Case trasffered to Philly ... god damn it ... the only reason this could be is change of address and the fact that my wife lives in Boston now.

I'll stop the scanning here since it doesn't have any value for me anymore so in the case somebody wants to take over, pm me to send the database.

Hey nemessis.

Sorry to hear that you've been transferred .

Any idea how long your wait will be at Philly?

ETA