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sloner axiom :)

raevsky said:
Egyptian max is 18794 or so. It is too early to say the max CN for other AF special countries.
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18794 is no longer max for Egypt. They entered additional numbers up to cutoff 22850
Nigeria also has numbers at least until cutoff 11600
Ethiopia ends at 29941 or so. My suspicion that Ethiopian max has passed and cutoff 30000 is higher than Ethiopian max looks to be correct. That is why Ethiopian max is now the same as African max.
Ghana ends at 29136 or so.

Ukraine ends at 18085 or so.
 
so if the special countries max CN is 30k for Africa, we should see good acceleration of the African CN in April, right? what about Congo DR and his more then 6000 selectees?

raevsky said:
18794 is no longer max for Egypt. They entered additional numbers up to cutoff 22850
Nigeria also has numbers at least until cutoff 11600
Ethiopia ends at 29941 or so. My suspicion that Ethiopian max has passed and cutoff 30000 is higher than Ethiopian max looks to be correct. That is why Ethiopian max is now the same as African max.
Ghana ends at 29136 or so.

Ukraine ends at 18085 or so.
Click to expand...
 
Congo with 3924 winners produced 2231 visas in 2013. In DV-14 there are 6025 winners. Even if AF becomes current by the end of the fiscal year (hardly possible), expect 3426 visas from Congo, less than per country max. So, I do not see a point imposing a limit for Congo.
 
raevsky said:
Congo with 3924 winners produced 2231 visas in 2013. In DV-14 there are 6025 winners. Even if AF becomes current by the end of the fiscal year (hardly possible), expect 3426 visas from Congo, less than per country max. So, I do not see a point imposing a limit for Congo.
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Is it not the circumcision which imposes the limit to the special country? Congo was not in circumcision as the number of the the people entering to the lottery was low compared to countries like Nigeria, Egypt, Ethiopia and Ghana. Thus the 6k figure is as a result of direct drawing not after circumcision, while the figures of total winners from the indicated country were after it. otherwise the actual winners from these countries were more than 10K, it even goes up to 20K for a country like Nigeria.
 
Since ethiopia has maxed out, and egypt has as well according to raevsky, now I'm expecting a hiroshima in AF region cutoff!
 
already 1st of March, half way across the DV2014.... crossing fingers and look forward for the updated CEAC file: Raevsky or Rafikbo76 please help !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Originally Posted by Sloner View Post
My prediction for May.
Europa - 30500-32000 exactly :p
Uzbekistan - 16500-17000 -150 nonsense:)
Africa - 40000-45000 -2100 :(
Asia - 6300-7000 exactly :p
SA- 1250-1300 +25 exactly :p
OC- 1100-1200 exactly :p
 
you are good except for Africa :)

Sloner said:
Originally Posted by Sloner View Post
My prediction for May.
Europa - 30500-32000 exactly :p
Uzbekistan - 16500-17000 -150 nonsense:)
Africa - 40000-45000 -2100 :(
Asia - 6300-7000 exactly :p
SA- 1250-1300 +25 exactly :p
OC- 1100-1200 exactly :p
Click to expand...
 
Let's calculate the distribution of last year for Egypt:
we that from the CEAC 30 sep 2013 we have some missed data at the bigging, so I'll calculate only between 10k and 20k, we have 1585 selected, 1585/10 --> 158.5 each 1000, since we know that the Egyptians CN are between 0 and 2400 so 158.5 * 24 = 3804 selected (sould be the total number of Egyptians who got an interview date),

with 5015 selected we got 3804 convoked, this year we have 5757, so (5757*3804)/5015= 4367 selected (Egyptian will be convoked for an interview this year in total)

if we check at the latest CEAC, we have 2873 Egyptians up to 22850 (April Egyptian cutoff) with the same density density ( 2873/22.85 = 126 each 1000, so the remaining are 4367 - 2873 = 1494 , 1494/126 = 11.85 , 11.85* 1000 = 11850, so the 22850 + 11850 = 34700 will be the max Egyptian CN :)
 
MalcomX said:
Let's calculate the distribution of last year for Egypt:
we that from the CEAC 30 sep 2013 we have some missed data at the bigging, so I'll calculate only between 10k and 20k, we have 1585 selected, 1585/10 --> 158.5 each 1000, since we know that the Egyptians CN are between 0 and 2400 so 158.5 * 24 = 3804 selected (sould be the total number of Egyptians who got an interview date),

with 5015 selected we got 3804 convoked, this year we have 5757, so (5757*3804)/5015= 4367 selected (Egyptian will be convoked for an interview this year in total)

if we check at the latest CEAC, we have 2873 Egyptians up to 22850 (April Egyptian cutoff) with the same density density ( 2873/22.85 = 126 each 1000, so the remaining are 4367 - 2873 = 1494 , 1494/126 = 11.85 , 11.85* 1000 = 11850, so the 22850 + 11850 = 34700 will be the max Egyptian CN :)
Click to expand...

So with this calculations we can say that egypt will still hold the rest of AF
A bit for the next 2 VB, aswell as the nigerians, but after that most of the nigerians will
Be digested in the process.
Can we expect a jump of 20k~25k for the last two months of dv?
 
Dear people of the Sloner Axion forum,

Our sister Mijoro has made the bold (one would say "Sloner sized") prediction that Oceania will go current in July.

Discuss.
 
Dear people of the Sloner Axion forum,

Our sister Mijoro has made the bold (one would say "Sloner sized") prediction that Oceania will go current in July.

Discuss.
Click to expand...
suspicious. She threw stones at me. But suddenly made such a prediction.
 
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