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sloner axiom :)

IheartNY said:
Dear people of the Sloner Axion forum,

Our sister Mijoro has made the bold (one would say "Sloner sized") prediction that Oceania will go current in July.

Discuss.
Click to expand...

Look as funny as it is she might be right !
Because according to the data 800 cutoff generated 485 cases including family memebers, and out
Of 485 only 200 visas got issued, now she can easy calculate that 800*3=2400
Will lead to 600 visas which is the normal quota for oc!
And that means current :)
Out of all the regions when you check the data its only OC that seems to be getting current at the end.
 
Since the max of Egyptian CN is 34700 and the AF CN is already 37900 it means that AF CN will be not hold for the rest of the years since up to 37900 we will not have any special countries CN interfering (more holes--> CN faster :) ), in addition the density is less then last year, so if last year we got 10k in June, this year we should have more ....

vladek15425 said:
So with this calculations we can say that egypt will still hold the rest of AF
A bit for the next 2 VB, aswell as the nigerians, but after that most of the nigerians will
Be digested in the process.
Can we expect a jump of 20k~25k for the last two months of dv?
Click to expand...
 
vladek15425 said:
Look as funny as it is she might be right !
Because according to the data 800 cutoff generated 485 cases including family memebers, and out
Of 485 only 200 visas got issued, now she can easy calculate that 800*3=2400
Will lead to 600 visas which is the normal quota for oc!
And that means current :)
Out of all the regions when you check the data its only OC that seems to be getting current at the end.
Click to expand...

Get out of my head Vladdy
 
One thing I learned to accept is nothing is certain with this. And that no one really has any idea from one month to the next so why not be positive.
 
vladek15425 said:
Look as funny as it is she might be right !
Because according to the data 800 cutoff generated 485 cases including family memebers, and out
Of 485 only 200 visas got issued, now she can easy calculate that 800*3=2400
Will lead to 600 visas which is the normal quota for oc!
And that means current :)
Out of all the regions when you check the data its only OC that seems to be getting current at the end.
Click to expand...

Any views on SA? What is the current data on that region? I was thinking, well hoping that with the refusals from some countries that South America could go all current as well. What is the probability of this happening? I'm at 24** still hoping, albeit uneasily....
 
2014 board1 3/2/2014
REGION Max CN Total CN Including Family ISSUED REFUSED AP READY+TRANS
AF 29999 9393 17682 6353 1295 1229 8805
AS 5349 3078 5994 2181 156 1333 2324
EU 25397 6658 14872 6671 434 1457 6310
OC 899 325 584 200 42 35 307
SA 1137 436 1108 456 96 81 475
NA 14 0 0 0 0 0 0
totals 19890 40240 15861 2023 4135 18221


2014 board2 2/2/2014
REGION Max CN Total CN Including Family ISSUED REFUSED AP READY+TRANS
AFRICA 24992 6785 12733 4541 756 895 6541
EUROPE 20040 5105 11498 4588 309 1065 5536
ASIA 4324 2391 4713 1699 91 1051 1872
SA 983 349 883 328 82 67 406
OC 798 277 485 138 39 38 270
NA 7 0 0 0 0 0 0
totals 14907 30312 11294 1277 3116 14625

board3
2014 board3 3/2/2014
REGION Max CN Total CN Including Family ISSUED REFUSED AP READY+TRANS
AFRICA 24992 6785 12733 6353 1295
EUROPE 20040 5105 11498 2181 156
ASIA 4324 2391 4713 6671 434
SA 983 349 883 200 42
OC 798 277 485 456 96
NA 7 0 0 0 0 0 0
totals 14907 30312 15861 2023 0 0
 
Board n01
Shows the data up to the last month of April which represent the 7th month of the dv process
With 40240 cases including derivatives, so one question comes to my mind how come after 7months only 40k got scheduled out of 140660k selectees???!
Board no2
Shows the data up to March where we see 30312 cases has been scheduled for 6 months process.
Board no3
We can notice that 30312 cases including family generated 15861 visas and that’s the new data board combined
Between no1 and no2 for us to be able to extract the real amount of visas granted for the real amount of interviewed selectees including family.
My conclusion
So in the beginning we believed that holes only existed between the CNs ! because of the disqualified entries, duplicate…….
And we believed that the number 140660k selectees, including derivatives is compact and there is no holes in between and all of them will show on the system (ceac).
Well I think it’s wrong! Since the ones that didn’t send forms to KFC  will not appear on the system,
So I call them the second-holes! So there is holes existing between the 140660 on the system, that’s why
We see little amount on conducted interview with derivatives as the boards can show, and its generating a HUGE amount of visas, which lead us to think that’s very scary, and if things carry on like this way they will only be able to schedule 60k for the holes fiscal year since they only did 40k within 7months process (see board no1).
So I think there is a lot of drop out (second-holes) and the density in the first 7~8 months is huge and the rest of the 4 months cases are hardly existing especially in the last 2 months.
And we also noticed a quiet huge amount of readys which is adding up progressively , of course we musnt trust at 100%, but if presume only 10% will come back from the readys and Aps , its already giving a big hope for high CNs……
Simon I did my best really my son keep on drilling the place with his plastic drill late this time I wait it fro him to pass out  so forgive my typos and the poor elaboration….
Kayend, sloner,house,rayme,malcom…. What do you all think?
Btw Thanks to rafikbo,raevsky and dailus data
 
first of all thanks alot for ur explanation... really it is quite interesting point to see.... so the case of 140k selectee is quite nicely explained ... in my view if this works out then i see most of high cases getting interview and even some regions might go current at lat months..
vladek15425 said:
Board n01
Shows the data up to the last month of April which represent the 7th month of the dv process
With 40240 cases including derivatives, so one question comes to my mind how come after 7months only 40k got scheduled out of 140660k selectees???!
Board no2
Shows the data up to March where we see 30312 cases has been scheduled for 6 months process.
Board no3
We can notice that 30312 cases including family generated 15861 visas and that’s the new data board combined
Between no1 and no2 for us to be able to extract the real amount of visas granted for the real amount of interviewed selectees including family.
My conclusion
So in the beginning we believed that holes only existed between the CNs ! because of the disqualified entries, duplicate…….
And we believed that the number 140660k selectees, including derivatives is compact and there is no holes in between and all of them will show on the system (ceac).
Well I think it’s wrong! Since the ones that didn’t send forms to KFC  will not appear on the system,
So I call them the second-holes! So there is holes existing between the 140660 on the system, that’s why
We see little amount on conducted interview with derivatives as the boards can show, and its generating a HUGE amount of visas, which lead us to think that’s very scary, and if things carry on like this way they will only be able to schedule 60k for the holes fiscal year since they only did 40k within 7months process (see board no1).
So I think there is a lot of drop out (second-holes) and the density in the first 7~8 months is huge and the rest of the 4 months cases are hardly existing especially in the last 2 months.
And we also noticed a quiet huge amount of readys which is adding up progressively , of course we musnt trust at 100%, but if presume only 10% will come back from the readys and Aps , its already giving a big hope for high CNs……
Simon I did my best really my son keep on drilling the place with his plastic drill late this time I wait it fro him to pass out  so forgive my typos and the poor elaboration….
Kayend, sloner,house,rayme,malcom…. What do you all think?
Btw Thanks to rafikbo,raevsky and dailus data
Click to expand...
 
Rayme said:
first of all thanks alot for ur explanation... really it is quite interesting point to see.... so the case of 140k selectee is quite nicely explained ... in my view if this works out then i see most of high cases getting interview and even some regions might go current at lat months..
Click to expand...

thanks pal :)
 
I have some comments vladek:

Lets say there are lots of dropouts (people who did not send the form) like you mentioned. But this does not mean the density of cases should be high in the beginning and very low in the last 4 months because of that. The dropouts should be random which means its not like most higher CNs did not sent the forms to KCC but almost all lower CNs sent their form. I agree on your second-holes theory but I don't think we can assume huge second-holes in the last 4 months. The second-holes rate should remain more or less same. I also don't think there are too many second-holes, otherwise we should see better cutoff rate than we have seen so far. I doubt its the other way around. I have not analysed other regions data very well, but I have seen the Asia numbers. It shows to me that the form send rate to KCC is very high (i.e. few second-holes) that's why the case numbers are so dense and it should continue like this. The only reason I can think for more holes and big jumps in cutoff is when special countries reach near their country limit. Anyway this is just my opinion. Everybody please feel free to criticize.
 
Vladek, I'm on the iPhone so won't say much but the thing we cannot ignore is that 2013 ( and every other normal year) got close to the limit with about 105/110k selectees. 2014 has 30% more so any time you have a theory that says that 30% isn't a problem, we need to be cautious.

Couple of points:
I am sure the density is high in the early CNs.
I believe the 140k is notified selectees/family.
The holes is something related to case numbers, not selectees.
It is fine to call no response cases second holes....
 
Thank Vladek. I noticed two very important things.
1. many "Ready" in Africa than in 2013. Will probably be many failures.
2. in Europe, I found the country that will give fewer visas. While this is Moldova and Turkey. In these countries, thanks to the new software found a large amount of fraud. I'm afraid to see Africa, and this figure will go off-scale.
I think everyone will go for an interview.
 
here comes sloner the great and his theory... long time no see hello fren
Sloner said:
Thank Vladek. I noticed two very important things.
1. many "Ready" in Africa than in 2013. Will probably be many failures.
2. in Europe, I found the country that will give fewer visas. While this is Moldova and Turkey. In these countries, thanks to the new software found a large amount of fraud. I'm afraid to see Africa, and this figure will go off-scale.
I think everyone will go for an interview.
Click to expand...
 
britsimon said:
Vladek, I'm on the iPhone so won't say much but the thing we cannot ignore is that 2013 ( and every other normal year) got close to the limit with about 105/110k selectees. 2014 has 30% more so any time you have a theory that says that 30% isn't a problem, we need to be cautious.

Couple of points:
I am sure the density is high in the early CNs.
I believe the 140k is notified selectees/family.
The holes is something related to case numbers, not selectees.
It is fine to call no response cases second holes....
Click to expand...

Simon I call them second-holes because they do not apprear on the system! So that's why after 7 months we only see
40k cases including on the system! Its actualy more than that, I can easy say the real number suppose to be 60k or more if you can reacticate the second-hole to show on the system....
 
Sloner said:
Thank Vladek. I noticed two very important things.
1. many "Ready" in Africa than in 2013. Will probably be many failures.
2. in Europe, I found the country that will give fewer visas. While this is Moldova and Turkey. In these countries, thanks to the new software found a large amount of fraud. I'm afraid to see Africa, and this figure will go off-scale.
I think everyone will go for an interview.
Click to expand...

There is a huge amount of second-holes inside the 140k sloner and if you add the no shows upsnd the failures...
Its gonna be a surprise than at the end!
 
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