vladek15425
Well-Known Member
The density is present in the begining of the CNs you just said your self my friend ! Because the progress is very slow yeah!
And the special countries are also present in the begining ... So
sloner axiom :)
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And the special countries are also present in the begining ... So
The density is present in the begining of the CNs you just said your self my friend ! Because the progress is very slow yeah!
And the special countries are also present in the begining ... So
Yes, high entry countries are at the beginning of the series. Density goes down after around 13k for Africa and 18k for Europe. This is due to the cutoff for Nigeria and Uzbekistan. Does anyone konw by the way what is the highest winning CN ever reported for these countries?
Look at tthe graph with Number of case per CN range in one of the graphs made by Dalius:
http://dv2014.tumblr.com
Once these countries are close to their country limit (7%), progression of the regional cutoffs should go faster.
vladek15425
Well-Known Member
I know in AF last year there was 97xxx now I knw he got an interview because AF was current!
Kayend
Active Member
My view on the remaining 4 months progress is this, every regions have their own special countries (countries with high entries and it is artificially limited in the selection process) and based on probability it will fill up the low CN and some might start to max out. So it is logical to think that the higher the CN goes, the faster it progress because it will have more and more holes in high CN. At least in Asia it doesn't max out yet after 8 months progress but it will max out very soon (within 1 -2 months time). In Asia, when it max out, it can goes 4x faster then May cut off. Other regions will definitely speed up tremendously as well. Mathematically, it is not possible to see any region goes current in DV14 but if we have lesser and lesser take up rate in high CN it is still possible to see some regions goes current. What we can do now is hope and hope and hope.
What i really do believe is :
- Holes in the early CN (and the late too) are about duplicate, fraud, people not sending their forms..
- After special country hit their limit, Holes becomes more and the density reduced.
That's because i believe that every entrant in the lottery (selected or not) do have a CN but Selected entrant are the ones notified. During selection when a country hit a limit, every CN for that country after limit will not be notified (selected) but it remain a hole in the CN numbering.
I know some of you think the same as me and others not. But my conclusion was made after analyzing this graph
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...FTbGJkU0s3ZjRkTVByTFFuSHc&usp=drive_web#gid=0
Comparing to DV-2013, I do believe that a good comparison will be next May according to DV-2013 CEAC Data up to 05-27-2013. lot of consulate were not present in the data but for africa i identified 2 witch I will exclude from the comparison.
Also, I tried to identify the max CN for Africa special countries, but the pb is that there is exception that no one (even raevsky) explain till now: the exception is about CN of some special country beyond it limit, they are few but they exist and they prevent me from doing analysis about the max CN of special countries.
hope I did explain my idea well
and of course can't wait for your comments
- Holes in the early CN (and the late too) are about duplicate, fraud, people not sending their forms..
- After special country hit their limit, Holes becomes more and the density reduced.
That's because i believe that every entrant in the lottery (selected or not) do have a CN but Selected entrant are the ones notified. During selection when a country hit a limit, every CN for that country after limit will not be notified (selected) but it remain a hole in the CN numbering.
I know some of you think the same as me and others not. But my conclusion was made after analyzing this graph
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...FTbGJkU0s3ZjRkTVByTFFuSHc&usp=drive_web#gid=0
Comparing to DV-2013, I do believe that a good comparison will be next May according to DV-2013 CEAC Data up to 05-27-2013. lot of consulate were not present in the data but for africa i identified 2 witch I will exclude from the comparison.
Also, I tried to identify the max CN for Africa special countries, but the pb is that there is exception that no one (even raevsky) explain till now: the exception is about CN of some special country beyond it limit, they are few but they exist and they prevent me from doing analysis about the max CN of special countries.
hope I did explain my idea well
and of course can't wait for your comments
vladek15425
Well-Known Member
Nepal and iran are responding very well ! But the other countries are not !
Asia won't get any special cut off they will just let the country limit do the job, so countrary to the all predictions there won't be any special cut !
Thje only option for AS is to hit 7%limit for nepal or iran than the rest of AS will hit the jackpot ..........
But in anyway when those 2 countries are about to hit the limit the cutoff explodes at the last two months !
That's why if jumps happens for asia it won't be bigger than 1.5 for the following two months ....
Every principal entrant get a CN number during the random draw. This is the reason of the 7 digits in the CN numbers. Only thoses selected are notified.
Holes are indeed created by what you just mentioned. I believe there are more holes above the special cutoff for special countries. For instance, Uzbekistan takes a lot of the winning numbers until the CN 18k range, then no more Uzbek with CN above around 18k are notified because DOS believes the country will hit the 7% by then.
Yes, that's what I think is hapenning during selection
MalcomX
Active Member
Nice, let me give you some comments:
Board n01
Shows the data up to the last month of April which represent the 7th month of the dv process
With 40240 cases including derivatives, so one question comes to my mind how come after 7months only 40k got scheduled out of 140660k selectees???! --> you can't make this comparison since not all the 140k will submit the forms to KCC, last year, the world rate was 61% (we apply directly this rate without taking in account that each region have a different rate and the proportion between each region is not same) so 140k * 0.61 = 85.4k (the total), so now we can ask same question: how come after 7months only 40k got scheduled out of 85400 selectees???! it seems possible but no, because from the first 40240, you will have a lot Latecomers, if we calculate their numbers from the 40240, we will have 3723 only from Africa that they missed their interview but will attend another one during the last months (only 12.5% of AF ready at end of the financial year 2013)
Board no2
Shows the data up to March where we see 30312 cases has been scheduled for 6 months process.
Board no3
We can notice that 30312 cases including family generated 15861 visas and that’s the new data board combined
Between no1 and no2 for us to be able to extract the real amount of visas granted for the real amount of interviewed selectees including family.
My conclusion
So in the beginning we believed that holes only existed between the CNs ! because of the disqualified entries, duplicate…….
And we believed that the number 140660k selectees, including derivatives is compact and there is no holes in between and all of them will show on the system (ceac).
Well I think it’s wrong! Since the ones that didn’t send forms to KFC will not appear on the system,
So I call them the second-holes! So there is holes existing between the 140660 on the system,
--> Agree with you (nice deduction )
that’s why
We see little amount on conducted interview with derivatives as the boards can show, and its generating a HUGE amount of visas, which lead us to think that’s very scary, and if things carry on like this way they will only be able to schedule 60k for the holes fiscal year since they only did 40k within 7months process (see board no1).
So I think there is a lot of drop out (second-holes) and the density in the first 7~8 months is huge and the rest of the 4 months cases are hardly existing especially in the last 2 months.
And we also noticed a quiet huge amount of readys which is adding up progressively , of course we musnt trust at 100%, but if presume only 10% will come back from the readys and Aps , its already giving a big hope for high CNs…… --> not sure, if from the 140k , 61% will send their form, so 85k will send their forms, we already have 40k, so during the last month, we will have 45k + the 40k latecomers which can be huge
Simon I did my best really my son keep on drilling the place with his plastic drill late this time I wait it fro him to pass out so forgive my typos and the poor elaboration….
Kayend, sloner,house,rayme,malcom…. What do you all think?
Btw Thanks to rafikbo,raevsky and dailus data[/QUOTE]
As a conclusion, I'll join Simon with his simple reasoning: with 105k selectees we got 51k, with 140k we will never have less then 55k --> for sure Not everyone will attend the interviews.
Thanks a lot for your great work, here we learn every day....
Board n01
Shows the data up to the last month of April which represent the 7th month of the dv process
With 40240 cases including derivatives, so one question comes to my mind how come after 7months only 40k got scheduled out of 140660k selectees???! --> you can't make this comparison since not all the 140k will submit the forms to KCC, last year, the world rate was 61% (we apply directly this rate without taking in account that each region have a different rate and the proportion between each region is not same) so 140k * 0.61 = 85.4k (the total), so now we can ask same question: how come after 7months only 40k got scheduled out of 85400 selectees???! it seems possible but no, because from the first 40240, you will have a lot Latecomers, if we calculate their numbers from the 40240, we will have 3723 only from Africa that they missed their interview but will attend another one during the last months (only 12.5% of AF ready at end of the financial year 2013)
Board no2
Shows the data up to March where we see 30312 cases has been scheduled for 6 months process.
Board no3
We can notice that 30312 cases including family generated 15861 visas and that’s the new data board combined
Between no1 and no2 for us to be able to extract the real amount of visas granted for the real amount of interviewed selectees including family.
My conclusion
So in the beginning we believed that holes only existed between the CNs ! because of the disqualified entries, duplicate…….
And we believed that the number 140660k selectees, including derivatives is compact and there is no holes in between and all of them will show on the system (ceac).
Well I think it’s wrong! Since the ones that didn’t send forms to KFC will not appear on the system,
So I call them the second-holes! So there is holes existing between the 140660 on the system,
--> Agree with you (nice deduction
) that’s why
We see little amount on conducted interview with derivatives as the boards can show, and its generating a HUGE amount of visas, which lead us to think that’s very scary, and if things carry on like this way they will only be able to schedule 60k for the holes fiscal year since they only did 40k within 7months process (see board no1).
So I think there is a lot of drop out (second-holes) and the density in the first 7~8 months is huge and the rest of the 4 months cases are hardly existing especially in the last 2 months.
And we also noticed a quiet huge amount of readys which is adding up progressively , of course we musnt trust at 100%, but if presume only 10% will come back from the readys and Aps , its already giving a big hope for high CNs…… --> not sure, if from the 140k , 61% will send their form, so 85k will send their forms, we already have 40k, so during the last month, we will have 45k + the 40k latecomers which can be huge
Simon I did my best really my son keep on drilling the place with his plastic drill late this time I wait it fro him to pass out so forgive my typos and the poor elaboration….
Kayend, sloner,house,rayme,malcom…. What do you all think?
Btw Thanks to rafikbo,raevsky and dailus data[/QUOTE]
As a conclusion, I'll join Simon with his simple reasoning: with 105k selectees we got 51k, with 140k we will never have less then 55k --> for sure Not everyone will attend the interviews.
Thanks a lot for your great work, here we learn every day....
They selected more people this year, that's a fact for sure. But did DOS expect more dropouts than DV13? Maybe....
When you look at EU for instance, max CN in DV13 was around 30.5k (according to CEAC = 30532) and max CN in DV14 seems to be 54k. So, 77% increase in the Max CN for 'only' 30% more selectees. For sure, there are much more holes in the system. Those holes were created during the selection process. Why? There must have been something happening... That's what Sloner think.
When you look at EU for instance, max CN in DV13 was around 30.5k (according to CEAC = 30532) and max CN in DV14 seems to be 54k. So, 77% increase in the Max CN for 'only' 30% more selectees. For sure, there are much more holes in the system. Those holes were created during the selection process. Why? There must have been something happening... That's what Sloner think.
DV-2013 MAX known CN was 97005
And do you know for DV14 the highest CN known so far?
Rayme
Registered Users (C)
ya my conclusion is also same vladek.. if they had to they would have done quite earlier...
Sloner
Active Member
MalcomX, I knew this before. The system displays people who have sent in the form of KCC.
hole:
1) erroneous application.
2) fraudulent application.
3) duplicates.
4) refusal.
5) "Ready" not come to the interview.
All these points more than in 2013.
Because it was introduced the new software. It struck its effectiveness in 2012.
EU - 60000
AS - 26000
OC - 3100
SA - 2600
hole:
1) erroneous application.
2) fraudulent application.
3) duplicates.
4) refusal.
5) "Ready" not come to the interview.
All these points more than in 2013.
Because it was introduced the new software. It struck its effectiveness in 2012.
AF-116000
EU - 60000
AS - 26000
OC - 3100
SA - 2600