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September VB - DV14 Last Chapter

I was here in some july or august month he was the guy to suggest someone 90k selectee from africa not to send forms and said no region will go current till now his predictions are almost all correct he is smart guy... not like you sloner spreading false hope... wherw is your that new programe concept gone and saying stubbornly all will be current....ravesky been so accurate most of the time with his predictions.. even Its bitter for me to accept the truth but I have found him more relieble...

Well I call BS on what you just said. I was here in May last year too and he said that not a single person above 33k in EU will get an interview and that EU max cut off will be 33k max. Then he said 35k few months later and then 38,5k so neither Sloner (everybody gets a visa) or raevsky (nobody gets a visa) will be right. It will be pretty much between.
 
Well I call BS on what you just said. I was here in May last year too and he said that not a single person above 33k in EU will get an interview and that EU max cut off will be 33k max. Then he said 35k few months later and then 38,5k so neither Sloner (everybody gets a visa) or raevsky (nobody gets a visa) will be right. It will be pretty much between.
Agreed with franko. Both Sloner and raevsky were making their predictions and we hardly can judge them for this. Sloner at least stopped making his predictions and just insulting raevsky every once in a while, but nobody taking his posts seriously anyway. What I don't like is that raevsky (after a few incorrect predictions) is still stressing everyone out saying that interviews will be cancelled in July or August. There's definitely no way to know such kind of information for sure because of many outside factors involved. I am not denying that it's still possible, but I think that everyone who have their interview scheduled in July or August should act accordingly. Don't listen to raevsky. Prepare your documents, pass medicals and wait for the interview.
 
Oh, by the way. Britsimon, did you know that raevsky thinks that you're from India and you're working as a full-time contributor in this forum? Rajiv is paying you a little for writing forum posts. Your list of responsibilities includes encouraging DV winners to send their documents and continue with their applications even though their case numbers are high.

Source: http://www.govorimpro.us/выигрыши-в...number-dv-2014-есть-шанс-233.html#post1269024 (lots of russian transilteration)

I personally don't believe this, I always thought that you're from UK now living in US and working in tech. But could you please elaborate? Are you by any means getting any benefits for writing posts on this forum?
 
Agreed with franko. Both Sloner and raevsky were making their predictions and we hardly can judge them for this. Sloner at least stopped making his predictions and just insulting raevsky every once in a while, but nobody taking his posts seriously anyway. What I don't like is that raevsky (after a few incorrect predictions) is still stressing everyone out saying that interviews will be cancelled in July or August. There's definitely no way to know such kind of information for sure because of many outside factors involved. I am not denying that it's still possible, but I think that everyone who have their interview scheduled in July or August should act accordingly. Don't listen to raevsky. Prepare your documents, pass medicals and wait for the interview.
I personally think what raevsky is doing is far worse. I know that Sloner has been criticized for some exuberant optimism, yet raevsky persistently talking about interview cancellations in July/August without any substantiation and putting a max CN of 1,550 on SA, after 1,750 just became current for July is rather irrresponsible, indeed.
 
Oh, by the way. Britsimon, did you know that raevsky thinks that you're from India and you're working as a full-time contributor in this forum? Rajiv is paying you a little for writing forum posts. Your list of responsibilities includes encouraging DV winners to send their documents and continue with their applications even though their case numbers are high.

Source: http://www.govorimpro.us/выигрыши-в-green-card-лотерее/45030-большой-case-number-dv-2014-есть-шанс-233.html#post1269024 (lots of russian transilteration)

I personally don't believe this, I always thought that you're from UK now living in US and working in tech. But could you please elaborate? Are you by any means getting any benefits for writing posts on this forum?


Hehe. Akh speaks the truth:

. U nego agenda. Inymi slovami, on zainteresovan v tom chtoby bol'she klientov indiiskogo foruma podavali na vizy. Rajivu idet s etogo zarplata - s kajdogo novogo klienta. A Rajiv platit britsimonu za ego full-time contribution na forume. Britsimon sidit gde-to v Indii i za groshi kropaet vse eti teksty, ugovarivai vseh podriad podavat' dokumenty v KCC


It basically says that Rajiv is paying you pennies for convincing people to send docks to KCC.


Hehhehe. Not only reavsky is a soulless machine sent here from the future to destroy DV lottery winners hope but he is also a freakin paranoid machine :D

This is awesome :D
 
Based on the Stats av analysed i Think AF will not go beyond 83600 for DV2014...................Lets wait and see if will be wrong but remember Never to give up!!:(:(:(:(:(
 
Based on the Stats av analysed i Think AF will not go beyond 83600 for DV2014...................Lets wait and see if will be wrong but remember Never to give up!!:(:(:(:(:(
 
Oh, by the way. Britsimon, did you know that raevsky thinks that you're from India and you're working as a full-time contributor in this forum? Rajiv is paying you a little for writing forum posts. Your list of responsibilities includes encouraging DV winners to send their documents and continue with their applications even though their case numbers are high.

Source: http://www.govorimpro.us/выигрыши-в-green-card-лотерее/45030-большой-case-number-dv-2014-есть-шанс-233.html#post1269024 (lots of russian transilteration)

I personally don't believe this, I always thought that you're from UK now living in US and working in tech. But could you please elaborate? Are you by any means getting any benefits for writing posts on this forum?
ahahaha
I have seen pictures of Simon with San Francisco:D I think Raevskii writes with psychiatric hospital.o_O
 
I personally think what raevsky is doing is far worse. I know that Sloner has been criticized for some exuberant optimism, yet raevsky persistently talking about interview cancellations in July/August without any substantiation and putting a max CN of 1,550 on SA, after 1,750 just became current for July is rather irrresponsible, indeed.
I believe that with the cutoff published for SA and EU SA will probably get out of visas in August and EU most likely will get out of visas no late than in August (July possible too).
I also think DOS could save it's face by changing August cutoffs be decreasing them in August VB that is due in early July.
For instance, DOS could decrease EU cutoff for August, leave 40150 as a cutoff for September, reschedule August interviews for September, and in that case has a good chance that no interviews are cancelled in August. Of course, the it will create a problem for AOS cases close to 40150 that were already filed early June, because if that is a September cutoff, they cannot file in June. But most of them will be anyway cancelled in September.

As a solution for SA they could decrease August cutoff and slightly increase September cutoff. And cancel September interviews later. That way they will save their face and avoid cancelling interviews in August.
 
Oh, by the way. Britsimon, did you know that raevsky thinks that you're from India and you're working as a full-time contributor in this forum? Rajiv is paying you a little for writing forum posts. Your list of responsibilities includes encouraging DV winners to send their documents and continue with their applications even though their case numbers are high.

Source: http://www.govorimpro.us/выигрыши-в-green-card-лотерее/45030-большой-case-number-dv-2014-есть-шанс-233.html#post1269024 (lots of russian transilteration)

I personally don't believe this, I always thought that you're from UK now living in US and working in tech. But could you please elaborate? Are you by any means getting any benefits for writing posts on this forum?

Hehe. Akh speaks the truth:

. U nego agenda. Inymi slovami, on zainteresovan v tom chtoby bol'she klientov indiiskogo foruma podavali na vizy. Rajivu idet s etogo zarplata - s kajdogo novogo klienta. A Rajiv platit britsimonu za ego full-time contribution na forume. Britsimon sidit gde-to v Indii i za groshi kropaet vse eti teksty, ugovarivai vseh podriad podavat' dokumenty v KCC


It basically says that Rajiv is paying you pennies for convincing people to send docks to KCC.


Hehhehe. Not only reavsky is a soulless machine sent here from the future to destroy DV lottery winners hope but he is also a freakin paranoid machine :D

This is awesome :D


Oh my god that is too freaking funny. My normal response to this would be to play along with this moronic tale with a heavy dose of sarcasm and enjoy the fun. However, i this case I think that would just add fuel to the delusional state of paranoia that Raevsky (Alex) must be going through.

So - yes I am British, yes I work in IT in CA on an H1 visa. I do not work for Rajiv or anyone else connected to this site and my contributions here are made with no charge, to anyone.

The funny thing is, Raevsky could have easily found out who I was since I surfed his Linked In page. With his computer like brain he could fairly easily worked out that people with my skillset/experience would not be working for pennies looking after a website for Rajiv.

So Raevsky - feel free to clarify these silly comments in which Rajiv has a business plan to pay people to convince selectees to send their documents directly to KCC and not use any lawyers. Doesn't seem like a great business model to me - but then I didn't go to Princeton...
 
Fair enough :p
That's what will simon would say on that post as well :D
Simom has gone through all kind of silly remarks !

But we all know that he's the most accurate, in term of predictions.
And he's the one that went a dig deep for the Nacara input, where now even Raevsky is adding up on his calculations...
http://forums.immigration.com/threads/nacara-nigaragua.318699/
Britsimon's strategy is to follow DOS's decisions (in terms of cutoff). He partially supported my early calculations of EU borderline 35K-37K by changing it slightly to 38K-39K. Then he found a good argument that convinced me that is case 55000 visas are issued, the cutoff could really go up to 38700 (my calcs based on his idea). However, he did not stay with the numbers he predicted, he followed the strategy "DOS does not make mistakes". That is his main argument. We all know it does make misakes.

So he believes more in visual effects and legal actions (DOS decisions, right or wrong, about cutoffs; that is more appropriate for a person with background in humanities, with law for instance) then in underlying logic (what would be more appropriate for a person with technical background).
 
Britsimon's strategy is to follow DOS's decisions (in terms of cutoff). He partially supported my early calculations of EU borderline 35K-37K by changing it slightly to 38K-39K. Then he found a good argument that convinced me that is case 55000 visas are issued, the cutoff could really go up to 38700 (my calcs based on his idea). However, he did not stay with the numbers he predicted, he followed the strategy "DOS does not make mistakes". That is his main argument. We all know it does make misakes.

So he believes more in visual effects and legal actions (DOS decisions, right or wrong, about cutoffs; that is more appropriate for a person with background in humanities, with law for instance) then in underlying logic (what would be more appropriate for a person with technical background).

Huh? When did I say DOS doesn't make mistakes???? I absolutely think that 2014 is a great big screwup based on 2012. I know you are a smart guy Raevsky - stop making silly stories up...
 
The funny thing is, Raevsky could have easily found out who I was since I surfed his Linked In page. With his computer like brain he could fairly easily worked out that people with my skillset/experience would not be working for pennies looking after a website for Rajiv.
Hundreds of professionals and job hunters visit my linked In page weekly, a number of them tries to contact me rather frequently.

This is, for instance, what got this week.
shailja mehta invites you to join Forum for Risk Management Professionals on LinkedIn
shailja mehta CFA/FRM Training at EduPristine
There are dozens of other invitations weekly. Sorry, not easy to figure out who of them Britsimon is.
 
Huh? When did I say DOS doesn't make mistakes???? I absolutely think that 2014 is a great big screwup based on 2012. I know you are a smart guy Raevsky - stop making silly stories up...
You did not say that explicitly. However, you easily "forget" of your previous opinion when DOS's logic is not following it.
 
And as for this waffle that I have flip flopped on my numbers - no, that is a fairy tale too. I have found posts from May and June last year where I was already saying number up to EU40 were pretty safe and that early 40s is where the cutoff would be (which is what I still think and still tell people). So in the past 12 months you have increased your estimates from 33k to 38.7k (almost 20%) whilst I have increased mine by... zero %.


Source:
http://forums.immigration.com/threa...-no-matter-case-no-in-99.315351/#post-2303297

or this

http://forums.immigration.com/threads/cut-off-numbers-for-august-released-enjoy.315870/page-2

Or this one where I tell someone at EU 40k they should be ok and then a couple of posts later tell someone at 47k they are probably too high. May 2013. I also adress your predictions at the time and explain you were too pessimistic.
http://forums.immigration.com/threads/dv-2014-europe-case-number.315339/#post-2303262

or many others....
 
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You did not say that explicitly. However, you easily "forget" of your previous opinion when DOS's logic is not following it.

No Raevsky - you are wrong - and you have not a single shred of evidence to support any of the waffle you are coming out with. Post your opinions, post facts, but if you are going to post silly comments about me, you should really have something to back it up - don't ya think?

I think that just about covers that.
 
So Raevsky - feel free to clarify these silly comments in which Rajiv has a business plan to pay people to convince selectees to send their documents directly to KCC and not use any lawyers. Doesn't seem like a great business model to me - but then I didn't go to Princeton...
I am not so sure. It could be not Rajiv, it could be Monica Agrawal who implements this plan. He might not even know, but he probably knows. That is not the point who specifically does it. That was a message on unrelated forum - that is why I just made a simple suggestion. The point is different - pay is likely to be involved. Of course, I could be mistaken. For instance, it could be a bunch of India law students - that could be a good practice for them to contribute in the US immigration forum, for a small fee. They follow the logic of judicial precedent, they study certain things very well. But more fundamental math/science logic is not their way of thinking. I am not saying Britsimon is the only one. That is like an internship for them. And not a big loss for administration of the forum financially, even for one person like Monica. That is why the forum is very conservative in supporting views about early quota fulfilling, and very liberal in opposite views.

I am not trying to say I know that for sure. I have no evidence of that and it might be very well wrong. But I see a lot of inconsistencies that cold be explained this way. That is, however, my personal opinion
 
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