Princedriss
Registered Users (C)
u are the happiest man on earth lol
Cut-off numbers for August released, enjoy!!!!!!!!
- Thread starter gabam
- Start date
LOL....what about me..
I salute your patience man!!! By the way, now would you please remove your crown and let us see your real head!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Eucn
Registered Users (C)
But according to this site current means that visa numbers are exhausted?
http://www.dvlotteryinstructions.com/dv-visa-bulletin.php
http://www.dvlotteryinstructions.com/dv-visa-bulletin.php
monashed
Registered Users (C)
all other places have other meaning to Current as "now processing all numbers remained"
see here :http://www.immihelp.com/visa-bulletin/
Britsimon
Super Moderator
She is.
Princedriss
Registered Users (C)
That is not right, be careful from those kind of websites
Britsimon
Super Moderator
I think that number is pretty safe. This is how I like to think of it.
We know that there are 125k selectees this year compared to 105k in previous years – an increase of 20%. In previous years the 105k has not yielded enough winners tofill all available visas so there has been a second drawing. I think they reduced the likelihood of doing that second drawing by increasing the numbers by 20% but that implies the visa will be exhausted between 105k and 125k.
We believe the highest EU CN is about 55k – and that ties with a 20% increase on previous years 45k max numbers. So to find out where you are in the 125k do a simplistic sum. 28000/55000 x100 = 69%. So you are in the top 69% in Europe. Applying that to the 125k you are in the top 86000 – well below the 105k figure that has typically not been enough to exhaust the visas.
So if DV2014 has similar dropout rates to other years I think you’ll be safe – there will be a visa for you by the time yours is processed. You would probably have a late interview (August or September) and you might be in the all current batch but you should be ok. Fingers crossed for you.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
I think that number is pretty safe. This is how I like to think of it.
We know that there are 125k selectees this year compared to 105k in previous years – an increase of 20%. In previous years the 105k has not yielded enough winners tofill all available visas so there has been a second drawing. I think they reduced the likelihood of doing that second drawing by increasing the numbers by 20% but that implies the visa will be exhausted between 105k and 125k.
We believe the highest EU CN is about 55k – and that ties with a 20% increase on previous years 45k max numbers. So to find out where you are in the 125k do a simplistic sum. 28000/55000 x100 = 69%. So you are in the top 69% in Europe. Applying that to the 125k you are in the top 86000 – well below the 105k figure that has typically not been enough to exhaust the visas.
So if DV2014 has similar dropout rates to other years I think you’ll be safe – there will be a visa for you by the time yours is processed. You would probably have a late interview (August or September) and you might be in the all current batch but you should be ok. Fingers crossed for you.
Princedriss
Registered Users (C)
Princedriss
Registered Users (C)
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Yeah - that supports the "holes theory". People try to work out why 40k winners means a 55k max case number. The theory is that there are "holes" in the series where people were immediately disqualified (along with their dependents) because they got caught with multiple lottery entries and so on. The other numbers I heard was around 50% don't take up the offer and around 7 or 8% get rejected at interview stage. So out of the 40k you mention, only 20k will try to proceed and 1.5k would be rejected. That would mean that there would NOT be enough visas to fill the demand - with around 10% missing out. Again - I think that fits quite well with the 105k was not enough, but 125k is more than enough.
Vichel
Registered Users (C)
I think the "holes" theory is actually a fact. Curiosity got the better of me, and I needed to just relax and do something mindless for a while (unpacking is exhausting!) so I spent an hour on that CEAC site - where you can get the status of visa applications. There were tons of holes in the OC region, some gaping. It didn't even start at 1. Started at 5. Then 6, 11, 12, 13, 29, ....
Not only do you have ones where their status is "Refused" but there's a fair number of APs who might not make it in time. And strangely enough, quite a few with the status of "Ready", meaning their case is ready for them to schedule an interview, but they've been ready for months - back in December of last year even. They're probably ones who decided not to go ahead after all despite sending in their forms.
Eucn
Registered Users (C)
Ok guys. A little statistical analysis should bring about some clarity to what every ones chances are based on case number rank
We know that about 15500 (31percent) visas are allocated to the euro area and last year 33000 won the lottery. Prior years indicate that the derivative factor may b 1,4 per winner as some winners have family. This would for 2013 have resulted in case numbers of around 46000 and will produce a total of around 11000 winners out of the 33000 selected in 2013.
This year a total of 20000 extra winners were selected of which I assume eu was allocated 31percent taking the u 2014 crowd up to 39000 winers and with the Same 1,4 factor this would produce about 55000 case numbers for 2014. Fits right?
Now the cut off depends on how many case numbers the process consumes per visa. This varies as some don't show up some don't do their paper work some die and some change plans.
So for the ongoing 2013 process we could assume that the DOS likes to process the same number of visa per month as their resources are static. This would in average mean 1291 visas per month. Thus the process should including June have produced 11625 visas. We know that June cut off is 31000. In other words the visa o case ratio is so far 11625/31000: 0,375. This means that it takes in average 2,667 case numbers to generate 1 visa so far. Thus it would take 41333 case numbers to fill the assumed eu quota. With a 5 percent s uncertainty the top range of case numbers getting visa would b between 39266 and 43399. This would fit well with case numbers to 2013 at max eu46000.
The problem is that last year in may the cut off number was 40000 meaning that in 2012 it took 40000 case numbers to produce 10333 visa assuming an equal monthly distribution. This men's the factor in 2012 was not 2,667 but 3.871!
So the bean counters analysing last year would conclude that it takes 15500x3.871 to fill the quota motivating them to produce towards 60000 Cn numbers for eu 2014. Probably a little less as they would have used an average of the whole yea that I don't have. But at least 55000 cad numbers newer know some hav at least 52xxx
So assuming 2o14 will proceed as 2013 those cn lower than 40000 stand a good probability of getting visa. If the tend looks more like 2012 then lower thn 50000 stand reasonably chance. Do the Mathis 2011 nd 2010 as well averagewith 2012 an 2013 and then you would have a good probability measure
Cheers
We know that about 15500 (31percent) visas are allocated to the euro area and last year 33000 won the lottery. Prior years indicate that the derivative factor may b 1,4 per winner as some winners have family. This would for 2013 have resulted in case numbers of around 46000 and will produce a total of around 11000 winners out of the 33000 selected in 2013.
This year a total of 20000 extra winners were selected of which I assume eu was allocated 31percent taking the u 2014 crowd up to 39000 winers and with the Same 1,4 factor this would produce about 55000 case numbers for 2014. Fits right?
Now the cut off depends on how many case numbers the process consumes per visa. This varies as some don't show up some don't do their paper work some die and some change plans.
So for the ongoing 2013 process we could assume that the DOS likes to process the same number of visa per month as their resources are static. This would in average mean 1291 visas per month. Thus the process should including June have produced 11625 visas. We know that June cut off is 31000. In other words the visa o case ratio is so far 11625/31000: 0,375. This means that it takes in average 2,667 case numbers to generate 1 visa so far. Thus it would take 41333 case numbers to fill the assumed eu quota. With a 5 percent s uncertainty the top range of case numbers getting visa would b between 39266 and 43399. This would fit well with case numbers to 2013 at max eu46000.
The problem is that last year in may the cut off number was 40000 meaning that in 2012 it took 40000 case numbers to produce 10333 visa assuming an equal monthly distribution. This men's the factor in 2012 was not 2,667 but 3.871!
So the bean counters analysing last year would conclude that it takes 15500x3.871 to fill the quota motivating them to produce towards 60000 Cn numbers for eu 2014. Probably a little less as they would have used an average of the whole yea that I don't have. But at least 55000 cad numbers newer know some hav at least 52xxx
So assuming 2o14 will proceed as 2013 those cn lower than 40000 stand a good probability of getting visa. If the tend looks more like 2012 then lower thn 50000 stand reasonably chance. Do the Mathis 2011 nd 2010 as well averagewith 2012 an 2013 and then you would have a good probability measure
Cheers
Princedriss
Registered Users (C)
anyone got his 2nd NL ?
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Yeah, I accept the holes theory is most likely true - it makes sense.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
That all sounds very sensible and bridges an estimate gap between my simplisitic guesstimates based on 105k selectees not being enough to the numbers being suggested by Raevsky who had a cutoff range from 30 to 37k. I've been comfortable with numbers below 40k too and thought that even early 40's had a chance - but the difference to Raevsky estimates troubled me. Your numbers fall between the pessimistic and optimistic ranges - so I think your numbers are pretty solid.
Regarding 2012. There was a programming SNAFU in 2012 that meant USCIS published a list of winners on May 1, 2011 and then rescinded that list two weeks later - meaning approx 23k people were told they were winners and then had the rug pulled out from under them. As well as the 23k were probably millions who initially checked and found they hadn't won, some of whom may have been selected in the re-drawing. In the end they failed to hit the 50k visas and the flow of CNs in VBs were not typical. With all that chaos it is not wise to treat 2012 as anything normal for analysis. Just ignore 2012.