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September VB - DV14 Last Chapter

very detailed and persistent... but I want to add one comments, in all you calculation you are assuming that the DV-2014 will have same quota as the DV-2013, everything is based on that, but if the quota change and Europe take 2k or 3k more, all those numbers will be different.....

,
raevsky said:
ASIA
1. Nepal
Out of first 6500 numbers (cutoff for May, and those were processed already)
Admin 161
Issued 2238
If we project the same rates up to 9500, we get:
Issued 3271
Admin 235
Totally 3506
If not all admin are processed, then with the same rates 10165 cutoff for Nepal will exhaust Nepalese quota.
So, Nepal will max out after 10200 or earlier. Cutoff for Nepal will not get higher than about 10200.
2. Iran
Out of first 6500 numbers
Admin 1781
Issued 1105
With the same rates after 12700
Issued 2159, and a lot of admins that will be processed by FBI in September. Iran will max out at the end of September,
and there is not need to lift cutoff beyond 12700
Anyway, Iranian max CN is likely to be around 10K-11K.
3. The rest of Asia.
After 6500 numbers:
Admin 252
Issued 1053
Projecting to 12700 would give
Admin 492
Issued 2057

1. Nepalese cutoff for September could become a little bit higher, about 10200 max. However, the max nepalese CN might be
not much higher.
2. Iran will probably not have per country cutoff because of large number of AP, but will max out when FBI processes them
anyway.
3. The rest of Asia will have up to 2500 visas already, with numbers up to 12700.
Last year quota 9500 with Nacara is 10200. 3500 nepalese + 3500 iranians is already 7000. 10200 - 7000 = 3200. Between
2050 and 2500 will be taken from numbers up to 12700. Then up to 700 - 1100 additional visas more might be needed to be
issued. That could lift cutoff up to 6500 more (from 12700), but I would expect it to be lifted only half of that amount.
Expect 14K-17K max. In case Nepal and Iran are given 3750 visas each, there is no need to lift AS cutoff at all. So, it
might not even be lifted above 13000. But 14K-17K is more likely.
EUROPE
Ukraine 1244 visas issued
Uzbekistan up to 16350
admin 156
issued 2477
Projecting to 20000 (Uzb max CN) we get 190 admin and 3030-3200 visas.
Last year EU quota = 16619. With Nacara released that would become 17890. Minus Ukraine and Uzbekistan that would give us
13550. For the rest of EU.
The rest of Europe
For EU up to 30700 we have:
Admin 1499
Issued 9319
Up to number 38700 (my projection of max) that would mean
Admin 1890
Issued 11747
Total 13637
With 40150 (cutoff) that would mean
Admin 1960
Issued 12188
Last year EU had less than 500 AP left in EU. So by any means EU will be exhausted before 40150. No need to increase EU
cutoff for September, even if noone of those who are below 30700 submits documents (but they will)
AFRICA
Ghana
Up to 29136
Admin 127
Issued 1346
That is it, I think no more CNs for Ghana
Nigeria
Up to 13500
Admin 230
Issued 1634
CNs go up to ~20K.
That would give with the same rate:
admin 340
Issued 2420
Ethiopia numbers up to 37900
admin 174
issued 1968
Ethiopia's CNs go up to ~43418
That would give
admin 199
issued 2255
Egypt with numbers up to 25900
admin 128
Issued 2828
Egypt's CNs go up to 28200
That would give
issued 3078
Rest of AF up to 37900
Admin 1440
Issued 4796
up to 63900 that would gibe
Admin 2428
Issued 8086
up to 80K that would give
admin 3040
issued 10123
up to 100K that would give
admin 3799
issued 12654
AF quota with possible nacara released could go up to 25087.
Ghana 1346 + 127 AP
Nigeria 2420 + 340 AP
Ethiopia 2255 + 199 AP
Egypt 3078 + 139 AP
Rest of AF 10123 + 3040 AP (up to 80K)
Total: 19222 + 3845 AP, definitely less than quota (if AF up to 80K)
Total 21753 + 4604 AP (if AF up to 100K). Potentially more than quota.
So, I would say AF will exhaust between 80K and 100K. Expect AF cutoff between 80K and 100K
At the same time all results (for all regions) are not 100% conclusive because people even with smaller numbers still
apply for visas. So, actual cutoffs will be even smaller.
Click to expand...
 
Kayend said:
This is dv1 and dv2014 should be dv-20 if I get the version correct. So, you suggesting version 1 mistakes might happen in version 20? I do not want to rule out anything but this will be very unlikely.
Click to expand...
Only DV-1 and DV-97 had the amount of visas issued more than 55000. I suspect DV-14 is close to that. So, we re talking about #3, not really #20. Also, they forgot the lessons already - it was too long ago.
 
raevsky said:
Well when visa for Iran exhausted in DV-13, the ad on the consular website in Ankara said exactly that - no more visas even after AP or an interview, all interviews cancelled
Click to expand...
Yes I know that..... IN SEPTEMBER. You have still not presented a shred of evidence of any KCC or USCIS notice of anything being cancelled before September in any year. Every cancellation that can be verified, has happened IN SEPTEMBER.
 
MalcomX said:
very detailed and persistent... but I want to add one comments, in all you calculation you are assuming that the DV-2014 will have same quota as the DV-2013, everything is based on that, but if the quota change and Europe take 2k or 3k more, all those numbers will be different.....

,
Click to expand...
Not really the same. I assume the quotas will increase proportionally, to 55000 (only 51080 visas were issud in DV-13)
 
SusieQQQ said:
Yes I know that..... IN SEPTEMBER. You have still not presented a shred of evidence of any KCC or USCIS notice of anything being cancelled before September in any year. Every cancellation that can be verified, has happened IN SEPTEMBER.
Click to expand...
Well. Each thing happens first sometimes. In case DOS has wrong planning of cutoffs in VB (what I believe is true for DV-14) that could happen earlier, and I believe it will for EU. Let's see it is going t be verifiable.
 
raevsky said:
Not really the same. I assume the quotas will increase proportionally, to 55000 (only 51080 visas were issud in DV-13)
Click to expand...
Exactly, this is the basic premise of your model and the potential weak spot in your conclusions, as commented on in detail earlier...
 
raevsky said:
Well when visa for Iran exhausted in DV-13, the ad on the consular website in Ankara said exactly that - no more visas even after AP or an interview, all interviews cancelled
Click to expand...
Yes, the interviews cancelled is for those 2nd interviews from AP to Ready status because of country limit.

One more point, in dv13, Iran hit around 3.7k visas issued and global visas issued if 51k+. And we know only Iran hit the country limit that year. So, the question is who else use the additional 800+ visas? And this 1k+ visas it get from NACARA, but Iran only issued 200+. So I believe they use the NACARA to cushion the buffer and their planning is to target 50k. Of course cancellation can still happen when the NACARA buffer has been used up but based on CEAC data for 10th month it only hit around 60k so we should have another 12k or so for remaining 2 months. 72-75k visa slots and expect 20k fall out is pretty conservative to me.
 
SusieQQQ said:
Yes I know that..... IN SEPTEMBER. You have still not presented a shred of evidence of any KCC or USCIS notice of anything being cancelled before September in any year. Every cancellation that can be verified, has happened IN SEPTEMBER.
Click to expand...
Actually, I need to make a correction, I mentioned that earlier. In September EU will get 2 visas from NA. But I still believe there will be cancellations in August.
 
Of course you are fully entitled to your beliefs, raevsky, at this point you just don't seem to have too many takers... Anyway, we will all find out about reality shortly.
 
Last edited:
For SA
up to 1325
issued 904 visas
up to 1550 proportionally - 1057
quota 940 (DV-13) *55/51 = 1013
+ ~50 for Guatemala = 1063

So, most likely visas for SA will be exhausted at the very end of August - beginning of September
1550 is probably the final cutoff.
 
Simon banned this troll. On Russian Forum with him nobody do not talks. Do not feed him. Better watch football.;)
 
Everyone is entitled to their own beliefs but not their own facts. Fact is that eu has run faster than Raevsky or anyone had predicted. Fact is that we don't know the regional quota and making assumptions about it based on previous years is a bad case of availability heuristics.

We will know more in a few weeks.
 
raevsky said:
Not really the same. I assume the quotas will increase proportionally, to 55000 (only 51080 visas were issud in DV-13)
Click to expand...

I am speaking about the proportionality, I don't think that it will be the same since we already know know that europe is in advance comparing to last year, we might have same proportion as before 2006 when Europe had more then 20k each year... of course I am just doing predictions as you and everybody ;)
 
Eucn said:
Everyone is entitled to their own beliefs but not their own facts. Fact is that eu has run faster than Raevsky or anyone had predicted. Fact is that we don't know the regional quota and making assumptions about it based on previous years is a bad case of availability heuristics.

We will know more in a few weeks.
Click to expand...
This is what I was trying to explain.... who said that we will have the sale quotas.... correct prediction should be made by using only CEAC files and VBs progressions, of course this is only my point of view.
 
I was here in some july or august month he was the guy to suggest someone 90k selectee from africa not to send forms and said no region will go current till now his predictions are almost all correct he is smart guy... not like you sloner spreading false hope... wherw is your that new programe concept gone and saying stubbornly all will be current....ravesky been so accurate most of the time with his predictions.. even Its bitter for me to accept the truth but I have found him more relieble...
Sloner said:
Simon banned this troll. On Russian Forum with him nobody do not talks. Do not feed him. Better watch football.;)
Click to expand...
 
I know him better than you all. Because he is Russian. It is not necessary here to make excuses.
 
My CN is in over 90Ks for AF,& haven't given up.Some say FY 2014 is different, but I say it's a year with a difference for me and the rest who are faithful.
 
Ngozimoja said:
My CN is in over 90Ks for AF,& haven't given up.Some say FY 2014 is different, but I say it's a year with a difference for me and the rest who are faithful.
Click to expand...
Wish you well remain focused God is within our lives and he has a perfect plan for all selectees #2014
 
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