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September VB - DV14 Last Chapter

There's still a mistery in my head. I don't think any countries will hit its quota when they have 3500 visa issued. for example, i use 2013 CEAC AS data.. i filtered the total of issued visas for Nepal was 2688 since the total Nepalese which are scheduled for interview were 3087 (including family members). As we can see from June 2012 visa bulletin, the total selectees from Nepal were 4k. maybe there is a reason why Nepal is on special cut off on August (regarding the total of interview scheduled for Nepalese already reach 7% of its quota limit). no one knows what will happen in next VB.. Let's pray for a happy ending :)
 
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Hey raevsky are you still with us :). So whats full EU quota without donation to other regions and total AF refusal till now we are waiting ;)
 
WingZero said:
There's still a mistery in my head. I don't think any countries will hit its quota when they have 3500 visa issued. for example, i use 2013 CEAC AS data.. i filtered the total of issued visas for Nepal was 2688 since the total Nepalese which are scheduled for interview were 3087 (including family members). As we can see from June 2012 visa bulletin, the total selectees from Nepal were 4k. maybe there is a reason why Nepal is on special cut off on August (regarding the total of interview scheduled for Nepalese already reach 7% of its quota limit). no one knows what will happen in next VB.. Let's pray for a happy ending :)
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The CEAC data for 2013 is incomplete. Nepal actually received 3300 visas - with as you say, 4k selectees. In 2014 they got 50% more selectees, but can only get around 3700/3800 visas max. That is why it was obvious that Nepal would be the first (and perhaps only) country to hit 7% limit.
 
Sometimes it seems that raevsky enjoys stressing the other "unlucky" high numbers that are waiting enough stressed by the situation itself. There's 2 weeks left to see what happens, so please let's be all patient.
I know that raevsky's not doing it on purpose but I'm sure everybody feels like a bomb when you state that they're not just cutting the quota for europe but even cancelling interviews for august.
 
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raevsky just put up his predictions and in his predictions it did mentioned a lot of if. The reason there is a lot of if is because dv2014 is a unique year. We can still take previous few years as a indication but again it is just another predictions that most of us have done. His predictions might not be optimistic but we just don't know how DOS will interpret the data and decision it is going to make for Sept cut off. Anyway, it is just max 3 weeks away, so let enjoy the hope for 3 more weeks.
 
Kayend said:
raevsky just put up his predictions and in his predictions it did mentioned a lot of if. The reason there is a lot of if is because dv2014 is a unique year. We can still take previous few years as a indication but again it is just another predictions that most of us have done. His predictions might not be optimistic but we just don't know how DOS will interpret the data and decision it is going to make for Sept cut off. Anyway, it is just max 3 weeks away, so let enjoy the hope for 3 more weeks.
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That's the point. We do not really know the exact numbers that DOS is handling or the proccess of this year. Maybe it's a new method that we don't know yet, could be an error from the begining, ... who knows.
As I always say there's good days and bad days waiting for the conclusión, but in different ways we all postponed or changed or even modified our lives for more than one year, waiting for the conclusion of this madness.
 
deniscarus said:
Today I called KCC and the women said that I must wait for the next VB and at the end she told me that " I think EU will become current"
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Well, this would be great, of course - hopefully her prediction is correct. At least it seems to confirm that they consider to keep EU tugging right along....
 
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Slikk said:
Hey raevsky when you mentioned that all other benefit from unused EU quota in september, whats full EU quota under heavy load in your head?
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In DV-1 EU quota was 24549, but there were only 24289 visas issued. The unused visas were distributed between other regions in September.
 
SusieQQQ said:
I'd like some more evidence than you being "pretty sure" ;)

The only evidence of cancelled interviews I've seen were in September, but those were country quotas. I haven't seen any evidence for what has happened with regional or global quotas being exhausted.
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I have evidence that in DV-2000 world quota was exhausted by Sept. 22 and some people who were interviewed before, were not able to get visas because of that.
 
raevsky said:
I have evidence that in DV-2000 world quota was exhausted by Sept. 22 and some people who were interviewed before, were not able to get visas because of that.
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Yes, and in some year interviews in Spain were cancelled on September 29th, when global visa had run out... ;)
 
Slikk said:
Hey raevsky are you still with us :). So whats full EU quota without donation to other regions and total AF refusal till now we are waiting ;)
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About 17900 quota for EU inDV-14 (based on almost all 55000 numbers filled for the world). 3485 refusals for AF so far.
 
EURO2014 said:
Yes, and in some year interviews in Spain were cancelled on September 29th, when global visa had run out... ;)
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Sept. 17th in Spain. Some interview in Israel were not cancelled even later, hat means that the interviews cancelled in Spain were because of regional or country quota. The only country quota in DV-2004 that could have been exhausted was Ethiopian quota, not Spanish one.
 
SusieQQQ said:
I'd like some more evidence than you being "pretty sure" ;)

The only evidence of cancelled interviews I've seen were in September, but those were country quotas. I haven't seen any evidence for what has happened with regional or global quotas being exhausted.
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So, when we see a forum post that all interviews in Mardid were cancelled since Sept. 17, 2004, and we know that some other interviews in other countries were not cancelled (in Israel), that means that was not world quota.
 
Raevsky what about SA? You predicted 1600 max for that region, they actually 1750 for august VB!
We know already that in the last data they hit the 2013 quota...
Do you think they will hit the wall in early august as well?
Because for me that also an other proof of quota increase!
 
Ah ok this is from rafik CEAC I thought you had more recent data, thats why I asked.. So it almost 3x higher refusal than in 2013 ceac form 5.27(1337) and without last 3 months and without AP for AF.So its going to be interesting situation after new Rafik update..What others think?Maybe AF will handle all remaining CNs with something like 21-22k visas?

raevsky said:
About 17900 quota for EU inDV-14 (based on almost all 55000 numbers filled for the world). 3485 refusals for AF so far.
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