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September VB - DV14 Last Chapter

Wrong :)

Ukraine and Uzbekistan are out of the game, but they certainly participate in the overall figure of 13000 so you can't handle them separately, and at the begining they slowed progress greatly.This is why some on forum have been blinded and thought that Europe will take on 2000 per month continuously..Now EU is open for current status because Western Europe is not a factor that significantly affects total number of issued visas. All scheduled interviews are safe so pls stop stressing people.Late submiters are less than 2% and statistically not very important.
Were your predictions accurate 38k? No, they were wrong so you are out of the game.. ticket lost...
Rest of us are still in ;)

raevsky said:
ASIA
1. Nepal
Out of first 6500 numbers (cutoff for May, and those were processed already)
Admin 161
Issued 2238
If we project the same rates up to 9500, we get:
Issued 3271
Admin 235
Totally 3506
If not all admin are processed, then with the same rates 10165 cutoff for Nepal will exhaust Nepalese quota.
So, Nepal will max out after 10200 or earlier. Cutoff for Nepal will not get higher than about 10200.
2. Iran
Out of first 6500 numbers
Admin 1781
Issued 1105
With the same rates after 12700
Issued 2159, and a lot of admins that will be processed by FBI in September. Iran will max out at the end of September,
and there is not need to lift cutoff beyond 12700
Anyway, Iranian max CN is likely to be around 10K-11K.
3. The rest of Asia.
After 6500 numbers:
Admin 252
Issued 1053
Projecting to 12700 would give
Admin 492
Issued 2057

1. Nepalese cutoff for September could become a little bit higher, about 10200 max. However, the max nepalese CN might be
not much higher.
2. Iran will probably not have per country cutoff because of large number of AP, but will max out when FBI processes them
anyway.
3. The rest of Asia will have up to 2500 visas already, with numbers up to 12700.
Last year quota 9500 with Nacara is 10200. 3500 nepalese + 3500 iranians is already 7000. 10200 - 7000 = 3200. Between
2050 and 2500 will be taken from numbers up to 12700. Then up to 700 - 1100 additional visas more might be needed to be
issued. That could lift cutoff up to 6500 more (from 12700), but I would expect it to be lifted only half of that amount.
Expect 14K-17K max. In case Nepal and Iran are given 3750 visas each, there is no need to lift AS cutoff at all. So, it
might not even be lifted above 13000. But 14K-17K is more likely.
EUROPE
Ukraine 1244 visas issued
Uzbekistan up to 16350
admin 156
issued 2477
Projecting to 20000 (Uzb max CN) we get 190 admin and 3030-3200 visas.
Last year EU quota = 16619. With Nacara released that would become 17890. Minus Ukraine and Uzbekistan that would give us
13550. For the rest of EU.
The rest of Europe
For EU up to 30700 we have:
Admin 1499
Issued 9319
Up to number 38700 (my projection of max) that would mean
Admin 1890
Issued 11747
Total 13637
With 40150 (cutoff) that would mean
Admin 1960
Issued 12188
Last year EU had less than 500 AP left in EU. So by any means EU will be exhausted before 40150. No need to increase EU
cutoff for September, even if noone of those who are below 30700 submits documents (but they will)
AFRICA
Ghana
Up to 29136
Admin 127
Issued 1346
That is it, I think no more CNs for Ghana
Nigeria
Up to 13500
Admin 230
Issued 1634
CNs go up to ~20K.
That would give with the same rate:
admin 340
Issued 2420
Ethiopia numbers up to 37900
admin 174
issued 1968
Ethiopia's CNs go up to ~43418
That would give
admin 199
issued 2255
Egypt with numbers up to 25900
admin 128
Issued 2828
Egypt's CNs go up to 28200
That would give
issued 3078
Rest of AF up to 37900
Admin 1440
Issued 4796
up to 63900 that would gibe
Admin 2428
Issued 8086
up to 80K that would give
admin 3040
issued 10123
up to 100K that would give
admin 3799
issued 12654
AF quota with possible nacara released could go up to 25087.
Ghana 1346 + 127 AP
Nigeria 2420 + 340 AP
Ethiopia 2255 + 199 AP
Egypt 3078 + 139 AP
Rest of AF 10123 + 3040 AP (up to 80K)
Total: 19222 + 3845 AP, definitely less than quota (if AF up to 80K)
Total 21753 + 4604 AP (if AF up to 100K). Potentially more than quota.
So, I would say AF will exhaust between 80K and 100K. Expect AF cutoff between 80K and 100K
At the same time all results (for all regions) are not 100% conclusive because people even with smaller numbers still
apply for visas. So, actual cutoffs will be even smaller.
Click to expand...
 
Last edited:
Slikk said:
Wrong :)

Ukraine and Uzbekistan are out of the game, but they certainly participate in the overall figure of 13000 so you can't handle them separately, and at the begining they slowed progress greatly.This is why some on forum have been blinded and thought that Europe will take on 2000 per month continuously..Now EU is open for current status because Western Europe is not a factor that significantly affects total number of issued visas. All scheduled interviews are safe so pls stop stressing people.Late submiters are less than 2% and statistically not very important.
Click to expand...
Of course, I can handle them any way I wish. You remind me of a bull who did not allow a goat to count him.
The scheduled interviews are the same safe as when they were cancelled in prior lotteries when visas were exhausted.
 
Slikk said:
Wrong :)
All scheduled interviews are safe so pls stop stressing people.Late submiters are less than 2% and statistically not very important.
Click to expand...
I am looking at Ankara consular schedule for the rest of June, July and August. Out of 107 EU interviews there 54 are with low numbers (lower than May cutoff of 30700). 54 out of 107 are those late submitter, ad that is a little bit higher than 50%. Looks more than 2%. Am I right?
 
Hah good one, yeah sure you can but still your prediction sucks :D.So you need to learn to accept things...

h3D12EF23
 
Nadira said:
Hey Friends!
Don't forget 7% max for each country.
For exemple there are almost 2428 visa available for Morocco but till now the number of visas given is under the half.
Click to expand...

The 7% limit won't hit Morocco and actually very few countries even get close to the limit. Nepal will hit it for sure, and maybe 1 or 2 other countries.
 
Yeah sure you wanna bet :), ahh sorry my bad you probably would but you already lost I forgot..
And pls share these Ankara cases with us, I like Ankara its tricky one :)

raevsky said:
That is exactly the reason why EU visas will be exhausted earlier than the end of August
Click to expand...
 
Slikk said:
Yeah sure you wanna bet :), ahh sorry my bad you probably would but you already lost I forgot..
And pls share these Ankara cases with us, I like Ankara its tricky one :)
Click to expand...
So, you are afraid to make a bet?! I tough so.
Ankara EU cases are here - http://www.usemb-ankara.org.tr/consular/english/schedule_dv.html , totally 107 of them

495

DV

7/2/ 8:50:00 AM
982

DV

7/1/ 9:00:00 AM
1248

DV

7/1/ 9:00:00 AM
2553

DV

7/2/ 8:50:00 AM
3177

DV

6/30/ 8:40:00 AM
3862

DV

6/18/ 8:40:00 AM
3868

DV

7/2/ 8:50:00 AM
4845

DV

7/2/ 8:50:00 AM
4937

DV

7/2/ 9:00:00 AM
5919

DV

7/2/ 9:00:00 AM
6816

DV

7/21/ 8:40:00 AM
8175

DV

7/7/ 8:50:00 AM
8454

DV

7/3/ 8:50:00 AM
8466

DV

7/7/ 8:50:00 AM
8728

DV

7/7/ 8:50:00 AM
8744

DV

7/7/ 8:50:00 AM
9002

DV

8/4/ 8:40:00 AM
12201

DV

6/16/ 8:40:00 AM
12733

DV

7/7/ 9:00:00 AM
13275

DV

7/8/ 8:50:00 AM
13841

DV

7/8/ 8:50:00 AM
14629

DV

7/16/ 8:40:00 AM
15031

DV

7/7/ 9:00:00 AM
15127

DV

7/7/ 9:00:00 AM
15846

DV

7/14/ 8:40:00 AM
16281

DV

7/8/ 8:50:00 AM
16498

DV

7/8/ 9:00:00 AM
17096

DV

7/8/ 9:00:00 AM
17540

DV

7/8/ 9:00:00 AM
17723

DV

7/8/ 8:50:00 AM
18102

DV

7/23/ 8:40:00 AM
18692

DV

7/8/ 8:50:00 AM
21011

DV

7/9/ 8:50:00 AM
21056

DV

6/30/ 8:50:00 AM
21510

DV

7/9/ 8:50:00 AM
22171

DV

7/9/ 8:50:00 AM
22310

DV

6/17/ 8:40:00 AM
22409

DV

7/10/ 8:40:00 AM
22920

DV

7/24/ 8:40:00 AM
23029

DV

7/9/ 8:50:00 AM
24274

DV

7/9/ 9:00:00 AM
24515

DV

7/9/ 9:00:00 AM
24969

DV

6/26/ 8:40:00 AM
25648

DV

7/10/ 9:00:00 AM
25808

DV

7/10/ 8:40:00 AM
25825

DV

7/10/ 8:50:00 AM
26069

DV

7/10/ 8:50:00 AM
26302

DV

7/10/ 9:00:00 AM
27276

DV

6/18/ 8:50:00 AM
27619

DV

7/10/ 9:00:00 AM
28157

DV

7/10/ 8:50:00 AM
28452

DV

6/25/ 8:50:00 AM
29456

DV

7/10/ 8:50:00 AM
30372

DV

7/8/ 8:50:00 AM
31738

DV

7/17/ 8:40:00 AM
31898

DV

7/7/ 8:40:00 AM
32749

DV

7/16/ 8:40:00 AM
32997

DV

7/9/ 9:00:00 AM
33093

DV

7/14/ 8:50:00 AM
33161

DV

7/14/ 8:50:00 AM
33196

DV

7/14/ 8:50:00 AM
33225

DV

7/14/ 9:00:00 AM
33235

DV

7/14/ 9:00:00 AM
33264

DV

7/14/ 9:00:00 AM
33290

DV

7/15/ 8:50:00 AM
33357

DV

7/15/ 8:50:00 AM
33404

DV

7/15/ 8:50:00 AM
33450

DV

7/15/ 9:00:00 AM
33491

DV

7/15/ 9:00:00 AM
33571

DV

7/1/ 8:50:00 AM
33598

DV

7/15/ 9:00:00 AM
33666

DV

7/16/ 8:50:00 AM
33784

DV

7/16/ 8:50:00 AM
33926

DV

7/17/ 9:00:00 AM
33955

DV

7/17/ 8:50:00 AM
33979

DV

7/17/ 8:50:00 AM
34057

DV

7/17/ 8:50:00 AM
34148

DV

7/16/ 9:00:00 AM
34273

DV

7/16/ 9:00:00 AM
34521

DV

7/16/ 9:00:00 AM
34708

DV

7/16/ 8:50:00 AM
34772

DV

7/21/ 9:00:00 AM
34807

DV

7/21/ 9:00:00 AM
34811

DV

7/21/ 9:00:00 AM
34840

DV

7/21/ 8:50:00 AM
34878

DV

7/21/ 8:50:00 AM
34923

DV

7/21/ 8:50:00 AM
34927

DV

7/17/ 9:00:00 AM
35107

DV

7/17/ 9:00:00 AM
35161

DV

7/22/ 8:50:00 AM
35299

DV

7/22/ 9:00:00 AM
35450

DV

7/22/ 9:00:00 AM
35531

DV

7/22/ 9:00:00 AM
35593

DV

7/22/ 8:50:00 AM
35665

DV

7/22/ 8:50:00 AM
35668

DV

7/23/ 8:50:00 AM
35712

DV

7/23/ 8:50:00 AM
35754

DV

7/23/ 8:50:00 AM
35792

DV

7/23/ 9:00:00 AM
35926

DV

7/23/ 9:00:00 AM
35963

DV

7/24/ 9:00:00 AM
35966

DV

7/24/ 9:00:00 AM
36069

DV

7/22/ 9:00:00 AM
36156

DV

7/24/ 8:50:00 AM
36196

DV

7/24/ 8:50:00 AM
36234

DV

7/24/ 8:50:00 AM
36240

DV

7/23/ 9:00:00 AM
 
Here is some numbers about AF August scheduled interview (CN between 56300 and 69300),
Total cases : 690, not all embassies figured in ceac (RDC for example), density arround 53/1K
Cameroun : 160 cases, density 12,3/1K
Kenya : 128 cases, density 9,84/1K
Algiers : 114 cases, density8,76/1k
Morocco : 120 cases, density 9,23/1k

Those countries and RDC are the second heavy weight countries as we re done with most of the special countries except Egypt witch is still in Special cut-off.
 
So maybe this has something to do with the so-called " 50% of late submmiters ;)" with all other Iranians in the mesh..

"Failure to submit documents 15 days before the appointment date will result in delay of the processing of your file and your interview may not take place on the original appointment date."
 
Yeah I found it min ago, but you didn't mentioned important notice.So propably most are just rescheduled interviews, sorry :).You need to find stronger proof..


raevsky said:
So, you are afraid to make a bet?! I tough so.
Ankara EU cases are here - http://www.usemb-ankara.org.tr/consular/english/schedule_dv.html , totally 107 of them

495

DV

7/2/ 8:50:00 AM
982

DV

7/1/ 9:00:00 AM
1248

DV

7/1/ 9:00:00 AM
2553

DV

7/2/ 8:50:00 AM
3177

DV

6/30/ 8:40:00 AM
3862

DV

6/18/ 8:40:00 AM
3868

DV

7/2/ 8:50:00 AM
4845

DV

7/2/ 8:50:00 AM
4937

DV

7/2/ 9:00:00 AM
5919

DV

7/2/ 9:00:00 AM
6816

DV

7/21/ 8:40:00 AM
8175

DV

7/7/ 8:50:00 AM
8454

DV

7/3/ 8:50:00 AM
8466

DV

7/7/ 8:50:00 AM
8728

DV

7/7/ 8:50:00 AM
8744

DV

7/7/ 8:50:00 AM
9002

DV

8/4/ 8:40:00 AM
12201

DV

6/16/ 8:40:00 AM
12733

DV

7/7/ 9:00:00 AM
13275

DV

7/8/ 8:50:00 AM
13841

DV

7/8/ 8:50:00 AM
14629

DV

7/16/ 8:40:00 AM
15031

DV

7/7/ 9:00:00 AM
15127

DV

7/7/ 9:00:00 AM
15846

DV

7/14/ 8:40:00 AM
16281

DV

7/8/ 8:50:00 AM
16498

DV

7/8/ 9:00:00 AM
17096

DV

7/8/ 9:00:00 AM
17540

DV

7/8/ 9:00:00 AM
17723

DV

7/8/ 8:50:00 AM
18102

DV

7/23/ 8:40:00 AM
18692

DV

7/8/ 8:50:00 AM
21011

DV

7/9/ 8:50:00 AM
21056

DV

6/30/ 8:50:00 AM
21510

DV

7/9/ 8:50:00 AM
22171

DV

7/9/ 8:50:00 AM
22310

DV

6/17/ 8:40:00 AM
22409

DV

7/10/ 8:40:00 AM
22920

DV

7/24/ 8:40:00 AM
23029

DV

7/9/ 8:50:00 AM
24274

DV

7/9/ 9:00:00 AM
24515

DV

7/9/ 9:00:00 AM
24969

DV

6/26/ 8:40:00 AM
25648

DV

7/10/ 9:00:00 AM
25808

DV

7/10/ 8:40:00 AM
25825

DV

7/10/ 8:50:00 AM
26069

DV

7/10/ 8:50:00 AM
26302

DV

7/10/ 9:00:00 AM
27276

DV

6/18/ 8:50:00 AM
27619

DV

7/10/ 9:00:00 AM
28157

DV

7/10/ 8:50:00 AM
28452

DV

6/25/ 8:50:00 AM
29456

DV

7/10/ 8:50:00 AM
30372

DV

7/8/ 8:50:00 AM
31738

DV

7/17/ 8:40:00 AM
31898

DV

7/7/ 8:40:00 AM
32749

DV

7/16/ 8:40:00 AM
32997

DV

7/9/ 9:00:00 AM
33093

DV

7/14/ 8:50:00 AM
33161

DV

7/14/ 8:50:00 AM
33196

DV

7/14/ 8:50:00 AM
33225

DV

7/14/ 9:00:00 AM
33235

DV

7/14/ 9:00:00 AM
33264

DV

7/14/ 9:00:00 AM
33290

DV

7/15/ 8:50:00 AM
33357

DV

7/15/ 8:50:00 AM
33404

DV

7/15/ 8:50:00 AM
33450

DV

7/15/ 9:00:00 AM
33491

DV

7/15/ 9:00:00 AM
33571

DV

7/1/ 8:50:00 AM
33598

DV

7/15/ 9:00:00 AM
33666

DV

7/16/ 8:50:00 AM
33784

DV

7/16/ 8:50:00 AM
33926

DV

7/17/ 9:00:00 AM
33955

DV

7/17/ 8:50:00 AM
33979

DV

7/17/ 8:50:00 AM
34057

DV

7/17/ 8:50:00 AM
34148

DV

7/16/ 9:00:00 AM
34273

DV

7/16/ 9:00:00 AM
34521

DV

7/16/ 9:00:00 AM
34708

DV

7/16/ 8:50:00 AM
34772

DV

7/21/ 9:00:00 AM
34807

DV

7/21/ 9:00:00 AM
34811

DV

7/21/ 9:00:00 AM
34840

DV

7/21/ 8:50:00 AM
34878

DV

7/21/ 8:50:00 AM
34923

DV

7/21/ 8:50:00 AM
34927

DV

7/17/ 9:00:00 AM
35107

DV

7/17/ 9:00:00 AM
35161

DV

7/22/ 8:50:00 AM
35299

DV

7/22/ 9:00:00 AM
35450

DV

7/22/ 9:00:00 AM
35531

DV

7/22/ 9:00:00 AM
35593

DV

7/22/ 8:50:00 AM
35665

DV

7/22/ 8:50:00 AM
35668

DV

7/23/ 8:50:00 AM
35712

DV

7/23/ 8:50:00 AM
35754

DV

7/23/ 8:50:00 AM
35792

DV

7/23/ 9:00:00 AM
35926

DV

7/23/ 9:00:00 AM
35963

DV

7/24/ 9:00:00 AM
35966

DV

7/24/ 9:00:00 AM
36069

DV

7/22/ 9:00:00 AM
36156

DV

7/24/ 8:50:00 AM
36196

DV

7/24/ 8:50:00 AM
36234

DV

7/24/ 8:50:00 AM
36240

DV

7/23/ 9:00:00 AM[/QUOTE
Click to expand...
 
Slikk said:
So maybe this has something to do with the so-called " 50% of late submmiters ;)" with all other Iranians in the mesh..

"Failure to submit documents 15 days before the appointment date will result in delay of the processing of your file and your interview may not take place on the original appointment date."
Click to expand...
Does it change anything? Count only those that are scheduled for July or August. There are 99 those. And 46 of them are below May cutoff.
 
Excellent analysis from Raevsky above.

Many will find comfort or angst in what he is saying. However we are still dealing with unknowns and some of those are very impactful on the numbers. For instance - for EU Raevsky is basing his numbers on an assumption that the 2013 number for visas was the quota for 50k and he has then increased by an allowance for Nacara. However because EU nor any region actually hit a limit last year we do not know the limit. So whist I agree we have no evidence to support a statement of the EU li it is increased we can't say 18k is the limit either. It is like asking a submarine commander the max depth for his boat. There is only one way to find out for sure.

We're all living in a yellow submarine....
 
Slikk said:
Yeah I found it min ago, but you didn't mentioned important notice.So propably most are just rescheduled interviews, sorry :).You need to find stronger proof..
Click to expand...
Most of them are not rescheduled interviews. We have full history of Warsaw interviews, and the story is similar thee. There you cannot claim most of them are rescheduled, because we have full history.
 
Kidding right?You are looking whole EU through Ankara, this is certainly bad vector and I am sure you know that.
 
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