Predicted Priority Dates for final quarter of FY2005

Hemal what is the email address of webmater, and can we request to make a post sticky, I beleive if couple of us from the forum send them a email they might do it. Please share the email if you have it.

Guys, please use http://boards.immigrationportal.com...924#post1178924 to update the spreadsheet. we got some more people who came and aded there infromation to the spreadsheet, I am confident we will cove all of the US soon.

gceeker05 said:
Saurabh,

How about sending a mail to webmaster to make this new thread sticky. I feel other threads may supersede this thread.
Click to expand...
 
prosix, can you share the city name in Nroth Florida. it would not matter how many employeed the company has, if the CEO of the company talks to the congressmen of thazat district, they will listen (because that is where the $$$$$$$ and votes come from)

prosix said:
I live in north florida. My employer is a very small employer (30 something employee) and out of which only 3 inidans.
Click to expand...
 
Conference call

Our HR is organising a conference call tomorrow at 11.00AM so we employees who are affected by retrogression can explain our problem & explain what we are expecting from company (CEO). Hopefully HR will convey our concerns to CEO and he will take some action in positive direction.

Note: HR had already informed CEO that company is legally not obligated to do anything. But it is only a goodwill gesture to help employees in trouble as far as GC is concerned.
 
LaborCleared,

How well went the conference with ur HR?

Also, if you don't mind, would you please send following links to the people affected by retrogression in your company? I believe they are in couple of hundreds and if they join this move, we will be much stronger.

Yahoo group:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/techworkers/

Add ur info in spreadsheet by going on last page:
http://boards.immigrationportal.com/showthread.php?t=179272&highlight=retrogress

Others please send your friends/colleagues who are affected and/or willing to support it.
 
It was good

Kewl,
Conference call with our HR went well, I guess totally about 80-100 people joined the call (all EB3). We explained what it would mean for us to stuck in retrogression, how our lives are getting effected without stability like buying home, how much more we have to pay to buy a home after getting GC - this demands more wage & bonus, unsatisfied employee because can not afford to buy homes at a very higher home prices, kids education, settling down in any particular area or not, how the spouses could not work (if they are not qualified for H1 or other work status) and how it is effecting if both are not working, quality of life etc...

We have taken an bold step and mentioned dollar numbers if every one of us checked the immigration sites for updates and spent half hour every day times 400 people, its 200 man hours wasted every day and atleast 4000 man hours every month. That would be 48000 man hours every year which is 24 employees hours (basing 2000 hours a year) times the average salary of 80k (Assumption - Most IT professionals will have pay more than 80k in full time jobs). So that dollar number stood at $1.9 million. HR agreed that if not all most of the employees tend to check the web updates about their immigration status. We said HR can not pin point at one person but this is what is happening with all employees in all companies country wide. This statement was just to cover our visiting these forum and immigration websites. Hopefully HR will present this kind of numbers to CEO then I am sure he will get mad first looking at the dollars lost, then he should take some corrective action which is - talking to his buddies at HILL. That is what we are guessing.

Please wish us good luck - so that our CEO will take this matter upto SENATE thru his buddies.

___________________________________
I am not attorney.
 
New Stats available from USCIS, of 2004.

I just noticed that the Stats for year 2004 are available at the USCIS site. So here is the summary from that, mostly relating to usage of EB visas and recaptured visas.

Total Employment based immigrants acc to USCIS Statistical Yearbooks
(http://uscis.gov/graphics/shared/statistics/)

Total annual limit on employment-based preference immigrants is at least 140,000. (Ref for eg http://dosfan.lib.uic.edu/ERC/visa_...903bulletin.htm)

Year
1999 Utilization 56,817 Annual Limit 140,000 Unused 83,183
2000 Utilization 107,024 Annual Limit 140,000 Unused 32,976

These numbers indicate 116,159 available for recapture per AC21.
DOS bulletin was indicating some 130K or so. May be we can find their statistics site and reconcile this.

Continuing with the numbers:

Year
2001 used 179,195 out of an annual quota of 140,000 Used from { 39,195
2002 used 174,968 out of an annual quota of 140,000 recaptured? { 34,968
2003 used 82,137 out of an annual quota of 140,000 Unused 57,863
(So, they recaptured 50,000 and gave to Sch A (Nurses & PTs))
2004 used 155,330 out of an annual quota of 140,000 Used from recapture 15,330?

Tot used from recaptured 89,493

If we ignore the 101K of unused numbers the Visa Bulletin of Jan 05 was mentioning and assume that we had only 26k unused (based on the numbers published by USCIS), it looks plausible that the visa numbers are exhausted!! The 2002 and 2004 usage of EB1 & EB2 quotas were almost complete, so almost nothing trickled down to EB3. The same is likely this year(2005) and worse?

I only wish the DOS bulletin had not misled on such a wild scale!

Hanuman
 
hanuman55

thanks for that piece of information. i earlier had a conversation with my lawyer and it seems like 2005 could turn out to be a really bad year for EB3 applicants. and its only the beginning.....unless the number of immigrant visas are not increased, you will see a wait of at least 2-3 years before PD's become current for an applicant. SO essentially the processing delay has been pushed from the LC stage to the I-140/485 stage.





Hanuman55 said:
I just noticed that the Stats for year 2004 are available at the USCIS site. So here is the summary from that, mostly relating to usage of EB visas and recaptured visas.

Total Employment based immigrants acc to USCIS Statistical Yearbooks
(http://uscis.gov/graphics/shared/statistics/)

Total annual limit on employment-based preference immigrants is at least 140,000. (Ref for eg http://dosfan.lib.uic.edu/ERC/visa_...903bulletin.htm)

Year
1999 Utilization 56,817 Annual Limit 140,000 Unused 83,183
2000 Utilization 107,024 Annual Limit 140,000 Unused 32,976

These numbers indicate 116,159 available for recapture per AC21.
DOS bulletin was indicating some 130K or so. May be we can find their statistics site and reconcile this.

Continuing with the numbers:

Year
2001 used 179,195 out of an annual quota of 140,000 Used from { 39,195
2002 used 174,968 out of an annual quota of 140,000 recaptured? { 34,968
2003 used 82,137 out of an annual quota of 140,000 Unused 57,863
(So, they recaptured 50,000 and gave to Sch A (Nurses & PTs))
2004 used 155,330 out of an annual quota of 140,000 Used from recapture 15,330?

Tot used from recaptured 89,493

If we ignore the 101K of unused numbers the Visa Bulletin of Jan 05 was mentioning and assume that we had only 26k unused (based on the numbers published by USCIS), it looks plausible that the visa numbers are exhausted!! The 2002 and 2004 usage of EB1 & EB2 quotas were almost complete, so almost nothing trickled down to EB3. The same is likely this year(2005) and worse?

I only wish the DOS bulletin had not misled on such a wild scale!

Hanuman
Click to expand...
 
Hi
Yeah, that is right. EB3 retrogression willl become very severe if visa numbers are not increased. However I am very confident that the visa number will be increased through some bill in the near future. My strong belief is based on the 950K estimated I-485 to be adjuciated in FY 2006 which is impossible without visa number increase. Also, by the way, things are proceeding with Bush govt's objectives I think this will happen if USCIS has to reach the 6 month objective of processing I-485. Today I am an optimist :)
 
Good 2b an optimist.

The 950K you are referring to as I-485 approvals for 2005, much of it comes from the non-capped categories and family visas of @240K. Employment based would be just about 100 - 120K (other 30 to 50K opting for Consular Processing). You can infer the split numbers by looking at previous years' stats available at USCIS site. So, still be an optimist but join/support the visa number increase legislation!

Have a nice day!

Hanuman

rrajendr said:
Hi
Yeah, that is right. EB3 retrogression willl become very severe if visa numbers are not increased. However I am very confident that the visa number will be increased through some bill in the near future. My strong belief is based on the 950K estimated I-485 to be adjuciated in FY 2006 which is impossible without visa number increase. Also, by the way, things are proceeding with Bush govt's objectives I think this will happen if USCIS has to reach the 6 month objective of processing I-485. Today I am an optimist :)
Click to expand...
 
The 6 month processing time window only applies when an applicant files for I-485 or CP which I think the USCIS should be able to achieve by 2006.

However, the problem is that applicants may not be able to reach the 485 stage because of the limited number of visa availability....which is managed by Dept of State.

The two are not related....USCIS will be able to meet their objectives, however, its the DOS who should be able to release enough visas to permit applicants to apply for CP or 485. USCIS interest is best served if the retrogression continues....this will help them clear out the backlogs.


rrajendr said:
Hi
Yeah, that is right. EB3 retrogression willl become very severe if visa numbers are not increased. However I am very confident that the visa number will be increased through some bill in the near future. My strong belief is based on the 950K estimated I-485 to be adjuciated in FY 2006 which is impossible without visa number increase. Also, by the way, things are proceeding with Bush govt's objectives I think this will happen if USCIS has to reach the 6 month objective of processing I-485. Today I am an optimist :)
Click to expand...
 
Hi Hanuman
I have been following ur threads carefully. You seem to follow the stats correctly. Below is my statistics for my belief on the visa number increase. May be I am leaving out something that everyone is welcome to criticize. :)

Below is the predicted movement of 2006 based on FY 2002 stat and 2004 stats closely match the below assumption as well. However all my calculations were purely based on today's law and 2002 stats
1)Now the projected approval for FY 2006 is 990, 392 from
http://uscis.gov/graphics/aboutus/repsstudies/BEPQ4v7.pdf

However as of Sept 2004 1,162,205 were pending for I-485 permanent resident adjustment as per http://uscis.gov/graphics/shared/aboutus/statistics/msrsep04/BENEFIT.HTM
As FY 2005 838706K will be approved and hence w,r,t Sept 2004 323,499K will be pending.
Assuming 37,110 I-485 (this is a big assumption) permanent resident adjustments receipts every month based on the Feb 2005 monthly statement from http://uscis.gov/graphics/shared/aboutus/statistics/msrmar05/BENEFIT.HTM
From Sept 2004 to Sept 2006: 37,110*24=890640
Pending Sept 2004 application after FY 2005= 323499
-----------------------------------------------------
1,214,139K I-485 AOS will be with USCIS at the end of Fy 2006

Also we know that FY 2006 USCIS as stated in 1) will approve 990,392 then
1,214,139 -990,392=223,747 will be pending at the end of FY 2006.

Now lets work on the break off for 990,392
466,901K(uncapped similar to 2002. But this is can vary for Refugees section and immediate family relatives. I took these into consideration because they form the bulk.)-6K(NACARA 203 since only 15K is anticipated)=460,901 +- 20K (conservative addition to addition of Refugees, immediate relative expectation)
Capped estimation:
63,528 (///r to family 2002 and this will not vary much families are mostly new arrivals through consular)
1989 (///r to diversity 2002 and this will not vary much bcos most of them are new arrivals through consular processing)
1989 (///r to diversity 2002)
32 (///r to IRCA legalization dependents 2002)
10K (from the http://uscis.gov/graphics/aboutus/r...ies/BEPQ4v7.pdf for Asylee AOS)
2224 (cancellation of removal from 2002 estimates. This may vary since I don’t know much).

-----------
558,674 total.
Hence Employment based will be 990,392-558,674=431,718

Assuming 140K+30K(from schedule A is taken forward since EB3 quota is depleted), and also of the remaining 431,718 I assume 300K is valid while the rest might go to other categories in a liberal way (though it is not that possible), congress should approve additional 130K for usuage atleast for my theory to hold true and this points to Kennedy bill etc.

Have nice day guys. I know as we all see on the movement, prediction doesn't go anywhere but still being an optimist :)

Hi Nishokie
This is why I say that I still believe in the increase of visas and we shouldn't be worried about short term jitters.
 
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Support Via Aila

srinireddydgl said:
EVERYONE PLEASE GO TO THIS THREAD TO JOIN
THE GREAT AND ALL TIME BIG MOVEMENT TO CURE RETROGRESSION AND START A BETTER LIFE

http://boards.immigrationportal.com/showthread.php?t=179272
Click to expand...


http://capwiz.com/aila2/home/
Please go to the above link and contact your congressman and senator of state and pledge your support to
Support the Secure America and Orderly Immigration Act of 2005, S. 1033/H.R. 2330

Also do the same for the president
You can do 2 things
1.SEND AN EMAIL
2.EXPORT IT AS RTF form(Letter option), and then customize with some personal event/story etc
as it was told by RAJEEV and mail the letters
the addresses and every thing is prepolutated pls take 10 minutes of your time and FLOOD the MAIL BOXES of all these congressman to make them understand the issue.
Please spend atleast 10$ per family
SEND SEPARATE letters as written by you, your wife and your kids explaining the INDIVIDUAL family situations
the framework of the letter is created and so all you have to do is to add a para of your own situation
PLEASE PLEASE DO IT
im attaching a template that i created.
/S
 
Hi Hanuman
Can you please look at the below stat and see if it makes any sense.

rrajendr said:
Hi Hanuman
I have been following ur threads carefully. You seem to follow the stats correctly. Below is my statistics for my belief on the visa number increase. May be I am leaving out something that everyone is welcome to criticize. :)

Below is the predicted movement of 2006 based on FY 2002 stat and 2004 stats closely match the below assumption as well. However all my calculations were purely based on today's law and 2002 stats
1)Now the projected approval for FY 2006 is 990, 392 from
http://uscis.gov/graphics/aboutus/repstudies/BEPQ4v7.pdf

However as of Sept 2004 1,162,205 were pending for I-485 permanent resident adjustment as per http://uscis.gov/graphics/shared/aboutus/statistics/msrsep04/BENEFIT.HTM
As FY 2005 838706K will be approved and hence w,r,t Sept 2004 323,499K will be pending.
Assuming 37,110 I-485 (this is a big assumption) permanent resident adjustments receipts every month based on the Feb 2005 monthly statement from http://uscis.gov/graphics/shared/aboutus/statistics/msrmar05/BENEFIT.HTM
From Sept 2004 to Sept 2006: 37,110*24=890640
Pending Sept 2004 application after FY 2005= 323499
-----------------------------------------------------
1,214,139K I-485 AOS will be with USCIS at the end of Fy 2006

Also we know that FY 2006 USCIS as stated in 1) will approve 990,392 then
1,214,139 -990,392=223,747 will be pending at the end of FY 2006.

Now lets work on the break off for 990,392
466,901K(uncapped similar to 2002. But this is can vary for Refugees section and immediate family relatives. I took these into consideration because they form the bulk.)-6K(NACARA 203 since only 15K is anticipated)=460,901 +- 20K (conservative addition to addition of Refugees, immediate relative expectation)
Capped estimation:
63,528 (///r to family 2002 and this will not vary much families are mostly new arrivals through consular)
1989 (///r to diversity 2002 and this will not vary much bcos most of them are new arrivals through consular processing)
1989 (///r to diversity 2002)
32 (///r to IRCA legalization dependents 2002)
10K (from the http://uscis.gov/graphics/aboutus/r...ies/BEPQ4v7.pdf for Asylee AOS)
2224 (cancellation of removal from 2002 estimates. This may vary since I don’t know much).

-----------
558,674 total.
Hence Employment based will be 990,392-558,674=431,718

Assuming 140K+30K(from schedule A is taken forward since EB3 quota is depleted), and also of the remaining 431,718 I assume 300K is valid while the rest might go to other categories in a liberal way (though it is not that possible), congress should approve additional 130K for usuage atleast for my theory to hold true and this points to Kennedy bill etc.

Have nice day guys. I know as we all see on the movement, prediction doesn't go anywhere but still being an optimist :)

Hi Nishokie
This is why I say that I still believe in the increase of visas and we shouldn't be worried about short term jitters.
Click to expand...
 
I dont think if 431,718 visas for employment based i-485 is a correct number
I thought that the total Emploment Imm Visas would only be 140 k
for all (Eb1/Eb2...Ebn) categories. Thats not just I-485 alone. That includes consular processing as well. So where do you get this 431,718 visas
I think there has been too much speculation about Visa numbers
I would assume that if the govt sticks to the principle of
Backlog elimination, they would have to pass a bill to be able to expand the visa limit. But thats a hope at this time.

All the Best to Every one!

rrajendr said:
Hi Hanuman
I have been following ur threads carefully. You seem to follow the stats correctly. Below is my statistics for my belief on the visa number increase. May be I am leaving out something that everyone is welcome to criticize. :)

Below is the predicted movement of 2006 based on FY 2002 stat and 2004 stats closely match the below assumption as well. However all my calculations were purely based on today's law and 2002 stats
1)Now the projected approval for FY 2006 is 990, 392 from
http://uscis.gov/graphics/aboutus/repstudies/BEPQ4v7.pdf

However as of Sept 2004 1,162,205 were pending for I-485 permanent resident adjustment as per http://uscis.gov/graphics/shared/aboutus/statistics/msrsep04/BENEFIT.HTM
As FY 2005 838706K will be approved and hence w,r,t Sept 2004 323,499K will be pending.
Assuming 37,110 I-485 (this is a big assumption) permanent resident adjustments receipts every month based on the Feb 2005 monthly statement from http://uscis.gov/graphics/shared/aboutus/statistics/msrmar05/BENEFIT.HTM
From Sept 2004 to Sept 2006: 37,110*24=890640
Pending Sept 2004 application after FY 2005= 323499
-----------------------------------------------------
1,214,139K I-485 AOS will be with USCIS at the end of Fy 2006

Also we know that FY 2006 USCIS as stated in 1) will approve 990,392 then
1,214,139 -990,392=223,747 will be pending at the end of FY 2006.

Now lets work on the break off for 990,392
466,901K(uncapped similar to 2002. But this is can vary for Refugees section and immediate family relatives. I took these into consideration because they form the bulk.)-6K(NACARA 203 since only 15K is anticipated)=460,901 +- 20K (conservative addition to addition of Refugees, immediate relative expectation)
Capped estimation:
63,528 (///r to family 2002 and this will not vary much families are mostly new arrivals through consular)
1989 (///r to diversity 2002 and this will not vary much bcos most of them are new arrivals through consular processing)
1989 (///r to diversity 2002)
32 (///r to IRCA legalization dependents 2002)
10K (from the http://uscis.gov/graphics/aboutus/r...ies/BEPQ4v7.pdf for Asylee AOS)
2224 (cancellation of removal from 2002 estimates. This may vary since I don’t know much).

-----------
558,674 total.
Hence Employment based will be 990,392-558,674=431,718

Assuming 140K+30K(from schedule A is taken forward since EB3 quota is depleted), and also of the remaining 431,718 I assume 300K is valid while the rest might go to other categories in a liberal way (though it is not that possible), congress should approve additional 130K for usuage atleast for my theory to hold true and this points to Kennedy bill etc.

Have nice day guys. I know as we all see on the movement, prediction doesn't go anywhere but still being an optimist :)

Hi Nishokie
This is why I say that I still believe in the increase of visas and we shouldn't be worried about short term jitters.
Click to expand...
 
Although I am not an active participant to this effort I don't understand what we are getting by just discussing what would have been the correct number of visa or if CIS has calculated it wrong. Help me understand the outcome from this?
 
nishokie said:
this will help them clear out the backlogs.
Click to expand...

Retrogression is because they are approving the cases. If they are not approving enough cases that means no retrogression. It was current for all these days not just because of AC-21 numbers but also because USCIS was not approving the GC (i.e. not using Visa numbers)
 
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well speculating and evaluating the availability of visa numbers is a way to kill time. i think it brings hope to some people, no matter how true or false the information turns out.
you may wish not to read these posters if they bother you that much.

prosix said:
Although I am not an active participant to this effort I don't understand what we are getting by just discussing what would have been the correct number of visa or if CIS has calculated it wrong. Help me understand the outcome from this?
Click to expand...
 
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