Predicted Priority Dates for final quarter of FY2005

The critical factors contributing to PD movement in FY2006 will be

1)BEC reduction effort speed.
2)Quota of EB numbers.
3)Labor substitution

Though there might be other factors , these are very critical and i am not going to predict the movement. However from the experience so far, it seems DOL is rather having though time itself to predict it and are basing the PD dates pessimistically and not based on any science. So one day (difficult to predict) there would be a steep jump.
 
RETROGRESSION for 2 years...A PREDICTION

Guy's don't panic we'll only have a wait in EB3 and maybe EB2 for up to 2 years , What we're seeing now is the backlog of I140's and I485's being issued visa's, If you look at the processing dates now you can see that they've processed more than 2 years worth in one year.

Once they've issued visas for the bulk of our applications all employment visas should open up.

Also look at the new H1B's being isued now, under 40,000 compared to 150,000 a few years ago.

these are just my thoughts on this very frustrating process

Eventually we'll all become citizens in this land where we already live and work so hard.
 
got these numbers from the BRC form....see below for the cases that are being processed in the philly BRC......these are RIR cases...

Mar-01 544
Apr-01 11982
May-01 966
Jun-01 1089
Jul-01 1213
Aug-01 1389
Sep-01 1052
Oct-01 1186
Nov-01 799
Dec-01 809
Jan-02 805
Feb-02 935
Mar-02 1352
Apr-02 1614
May-02 1942
Jun-02 1660
Jul-02 1905
Aug-02 1822
Sep-02 1836
Oct-02 1833
Nov-02 1856
Dec-02 2404
Jan-03 2202
Feb-03 2155
Mar-03 2216
Apr-03 2231
May-03 2140
Jun-03 2100
Jul-03 2207
Aug-03 2089
Sep-03 2013
Oct-03 1796
Nov-03 1065
Dec-03 1329
Jan-04 861
Feb-04 842
Mar-04 449
Apr-04 388
May-04 353
Jun-04 283
Jul-04 253
Aug-04 144
Sep-04 9

the ones below are non-RIR cases from philly.....

Mar-01 1018
Apr-01 11502
May-01 180
Jun-01 104
Jul-01 94
Aug-01 107
Sep-01 92
Oct-01 141
Nov-01 78
Dec-01 70
Jan-02 47
Feb-02 48
Mar-02 46
Apr-02 84
May-02 196
Jun-02 73
Jul-02 88
Aug-02 46
Sep-02 85
Oct-02 92
Nov-02 71
Dec-02 93
Jan-03 60
Feb-03 70
Mar-03 75
Apr-03 147
May-03 90
Jun-03 46
Jul-03 87
Aug-03 129
Sep-03 181
Oct-03 71
Nov-03 96
Dec-03 130
Jan-04 94
Feb-04 118
Mar-04 116
Apr-04 92
May-04 47
Jun-04 43
Jul-04 17
Aug-04 13
Sep-04 5




LaborCleared said:
Nishokie,
Very nice effort to gather that number of pending LC's. But where did you get that info from? The total adds up to 51,205. Is this number for all over US or only particular states? Can you get the info for non RIR pending LC's? As most of us know that DOL is claiming some 350k LC's pending with BRC's. Does non-RIR cases total to 300k?
Click to expand...
 
LC numbers from Philly BRC

Nishokie - Nice job indeed.

I see that these numbers are for Philly only. Is there any data from other centers as well? The cut off date for EB3 before it went "unavailable" was June 2002. The numbers from Philly before June 2002 total around 42K (including 28K for RIR)

As most of us know that DOL is claiming some 350k LC's pending with BRC's.
Click to expand...

I wonder how many of the 350K LC's pending are with dates before June 2002 so that it may be possible to predict the cut off date in Oct 2005.
 
Great Job!!

Now I know there are potentially atleast 80,000 people ahead of me in terms of PD (40K from Philly and say an equal number from Dallas). Multiplying it by 2.5, (say 2.5 visas for every labor cert), USCIS needs 200,000 visas for them. Roughly 70 to 80K might be in EB2 so my line has 120K ahead of me! At 40K a year (140,000 *28 %) for EB3, my straight line wait is another 3+ years! Assuming 70% of the 120K EB3 are from PIC, they are 84K. Assuming PIC will not get more than 7% every year from now, their annual visa numbers would be 21% of (140,000 * 28 %) = @ 8,400!!

Another 10 years wait, hmmm, not too bad!!! Good incentive for me to look elsewhere?

Mind you my PD is July 2003! If you are behind me, crunch your numbers and outsource yourself to ......


Have fun,


Hanuman

nishokie said:
got these numbers from the BRC form....see below for the cases that are being processed in the philly BRC......these are RIR cases...

the ones below are non-RIR cases from philly.....
Click to expand...
 
Family member numbers are not counted

My understanding is that the family members of primary applicant are not counted towards the quota numbers. All dependents of the primary applicant will get the GC and the family members numbers are not couted. They only count the number for primary applicant.

Hanuman55 said:
Great Job!!

Now I know there are potentially atleast 80,000 people ahead of me in terms of PD (40K from Philly and say an equal number from Dallas). Multiplying it by 2.5, (say 2.5 visas for every labor cert), USCIS needs 200,000 visas for them. Roughly 70 to 80K might be in EB2 so my line has 120K ahead of me! At 40K a year (140,000 *28 %) for EB3, my straight line wait is another 3+ years! Assuming 70% of the 120K EB3 are from PIC, they are 84K. Assuming PIC will not get more than 7% every year from now, their annual visa numbers would be 21% of (140,000 * 28 %) = @ 8,400!!

Another 10 years wait, hmmm, not too bad!!! Good incentive for me to look elsewhere?

Mind you my PD is July 2003! If you are behind me, crunch your numbers and outsource yourself to ......


Have fun,


Hanuman
Click to expand...
 
Nishokie had already published

Grandhipal,
If you do some search in this thread you will get the numbers from Dallas BEC too. Nishokie had already published what he got from Dallas BEC few weeks back. So, look for that page you will get the info you need. I think at that time the numbers counted to some 52K from Dallas BEC and now around 40K from Philly.

Grandhipal said:
Nishokie - Nice job indeed.

I see that these numbers are for Philly only. Is there any data from other centers as well? The cut off date for EB3 before it went "unavailable" was June 2002. The numbers from Philly before June 2002 total around 42K (including 28K for RIR)



I wonder how many of the 350K LC's pending are with dates before June 2002 so that it may be possible to predict the cut off date in Oct 2005.
Click to expand...
 
We can only wish for that! Do you happen to know under what category they can be charged - like the way H4 visa corresponds to underlying H1B?
If what you say is correct, why would the recent amendment to give Sch A workers 50,000 visas includes their dependents? See this Section:

SEC. 502. VISAS FOR NURSES.

Section 106(d) of the American Competitiveness in the Twenty-first Century Act of 2000 (Public Law 106-313; 8 U.S.C. 1153 note) is amended--

(1) in paragraph (1), by inserting before the period at the end of the second sentence `and any such visa that is made available due to the difference between the number of employment-based visas that were made available in fiscal year 2001, 2002, 2003, or 2004 and the number of such visas that were actually used in such fiscal year shall be available only to employment-based immigrants (and their family members accompanying or following to join under section 203(d) of such Act (8 U.S.C. 1153(d))) whose immigrant worker petitions were approved based on schedule A, as defined in section 656.5 of title 20, Code of Federal Regulations, as promulgated by the Secretary of Labor';

(2) in paragraph (2)(A), by striking `and 2000' and inserting `through 2004'; and

(3) in paragraph (2), by amending subparagraph (B) to read as follows:

`(B)(i) REDUCTION- The number described in subparagraph (A) shall be reduced, for each fiscal year after fiscal year 2001, by the cumulative number of immigrant visas actually used under paragraph (1) for previous fiscal years.

`(ii) MAXIMUM- The total number of visas made available under paragraph (1) from unused visas from the fiscal years 2001 through 2004 may not exceed 50,000.'.


I will be too happy if you are correct on this, it takes away 6 years of my 10 years!!

Hanuman



LaborCleared said:
My understanding is that the family members of primary applicant are not counted towards the quota numbers. All dependents of the primary applicant will get the GC and the family members numbers are not couted. They only count the number for primary applicant.
Click to expand...
 
hanuman,
from the EB3 category, 10K visas are allocated to "other worker category".

the 245(i) law allowed thousands and thousands of people to apply for LC and thats why you the huge number of applications pending from April 2001. most of these applications are from the "Other worker category" under EB3.

your processing time will greatly depend on how fast BRC clears out the backlog.....from what i hear they are pretty slow right now. so you could get lucky this year and get your GC.


Hanuman55 said:
Great Job!!

Now I know there are potentially atleast 80,000 people ahead of me in terms of PD (40K from Philly and say an equal number from Dallas). Multiplying it by 2.5, (say 2.5 visas for every labor cert), USCIS needs 200,000 visas for them. Roughly 70 to 80K might be in EB2 so my line has 120K ahead of me! At 40K a year (140,000 *28 %) for EB3, my straight line wait is another 3+ years! Assuming 70% of the 120K EB3 are from PIC, they are 84K. Assuming PIC will not get more than 7% every year from now, their annual visa numbers would be 21% of (140,000 * 28 %) = @ 8,400!!

Another 10 years wait, hmmm, not too bad!!! Good incentive for me to look elsewhere?

Mind you my PD is July 2003! If you are behind me, crunch your numbers and outsource yourself to ......


Have fun,


Hanuman
Click to expand...
 
hanuman,
from the EB3 category, 10K visas are allocated to "other worker category".

the 245(i) law allowed thousands and thousands of people to apply for LC and thats why you the huge number of applications pending from April 2001. most of these applications are from the "Other worker category" under EB3.

your processing time will greatly depend on how fast BRC clears out the backlog.....from what i hear they are pretty slow right now. so you could get lucky this year and get your GC.


Hanuman55 said:
Great Job!!

Now I know there are potentially atleast 80,000 people ahead of me in terms of PD (40K from Philly and say an equal number from Dallas). Multiplying it by 2.5, (say 2.5 visas for every labor cert), USCIS needs 200,000 visas for them. Roughly 70 to 80K might be in EB2 so my line has 120K ahead of me! At 40K a year (140,000 *28 %) for EB3, my straight line wait is another 3+ years! Assuming 70% of the 120K EB3 are from PIC, they are 84K. Assuming PIC will not get more than 7% every year from now, their annual visa numbers would be 21% of (140,000 * 28 %) = @ 8,400!!

Another 10 years wait, hmmm, not too bad!!! Good incentive for me to look elsewhere?

Mind you my PD is July 2003! If you are behind me, crunch your numbers and outsource yourself to ......


Have fun,


Hanuman
Click to expand...
 
Hanuman,
My understanding is that only primary applicant is counted for any numbers. In the section of Law you provided its for "Employment based (Scheduled A) and for their family members" because in no sense one would immigrate without his/her family which includes spouse and kids. If this statement is not included in the law then the interpretation of that law at latter date may change and some one could interpret it as it is not written in law to issue PR (GC) to EB dependents. So they have to take care of such larger issues while passing the law and that is the reason many times we find the law mentioning a thing in a larger perspective.

All dependent visas will be corelated to the underlying pricipal applicant whether it be H1, F1 or GC or anyother type of visa which will grant a subsequent dependent visa basing on the primary applicant.

So, I guess you can safely remove __ years oh no I cant predict how many years it will take. Good luck.

___________________________________________________________________
I am not an attorney. Just my opinions. Please use the above info at your own risk.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Please take a look at the 2004 stats USCIS has published http://uscis.gov/graphics/shared/statistics/publications/FlowReportLegalPermResidents2004.pdf
and the associated split up available in the spread sheet table of this http://uscis.gov/graphics/shared/statistics/yearbook/YrBk04Im.htm

Let me know if you still think dependents get charged to a different bucket.

Hanuman

LaborCleared said:
Hanuman,
My understanding is that only primary applicant is counted for any numbers. In the section of Law you provided its for "Employment based (Scheduled A) and for their family members" because in no sense one would immigrate without his/her family which includes spouse and kids. If this statement is not included in the law then the interpretation of that law at latter date may change and some one could interpret it as it is not written in law to issue PR (GC) to EB dependents. So they have to take care of such larger issues while passing the law and that is the reason many times we find the law mentioning a thing in a larger perspective.

All dependent visas will be corelated to the underlying pricipal applicant whether it be H1, F1 or GC or anyother type of visa which will grant a subsequent dependent visa basing on the primary applicant.

So, I guess you can safely remove __ years oh no I cant predict how many years it will take. Good luck.

___________________________________________________________________
I am not an attorney. Just my opinions. Please use the above info at your own risk.
Click to expand...
 
Hanuman,
I am not in position to invest so much time to read those 2 links you provided but at a first glance I could not locate where it says dependents are counted against the numerical count for GC. I did not have time to look your 2nd link. If you have already read it then please give me the page #, location etc...
 
Nishokie,
Yes, 140 includes all family members that are dependent on primary applicant but there is no quota for 140. Irrespective of whether one's PD is current or not they can file 140. Quota applies only at 485/CP stage.

___________________________________________
I am not attorney. Just my opinions.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Senate Judiciary hearing for "comprehensive immigration reform"

Guys,

Senate Judiciary hearing for comprehensive immigration reform (which includes to recapture of unused immigrant visas and increase number of yearly immigrant visas to 290,000) is scheduled on Tuesday, Jul. 26, 2005 9:30 a.m.

So come on guys...please..please send emails / letters / fax / make phone calls to your senators as well as senate judiciary members. Our goal is to hit our message to them by Monday. Everyone's effort counts!

Here is the link:

http://immigrationportal.com/showpost.php?p=1202739&postcount=183

Please modify the letter according to your situation.
 
Circular in my company

Kewl,
I emailed your link to the Retrogession group in my company and requested to send their bit to support this cause. I dont know how many will send but I am sure atleast few will send it.

On the other interesting note, our CEO seems keeping his promise. His Secretary emailed us saying this Retrogression issue and its effect on employees is included in the Board meeting (Aug 2nd week 2005) agenda. So, he did not forget us. Good to know that.
 
Thanks. There are various groups working different ways but with same goal.

LaborCleared said:
Kewl,
I emailed your link to the Retrogession group in my company and requested to send their bit to support this cause. I dont know how many will send but I am sure atleast few will send it.

On the other interesting note, our CEO seems keeping his promise. His Secretary emailed us saying this Retrogression issue and its effect on employees is included in the Board meeting (Aug 2nd week 2005) agenda. So, he did not forget us. Good to know that.
Click to expand...
 
How to check LUD?

Hi Guys,
Many people talk about LUD changes. I know what LUD is but how can I check it. Is there a phone number to check it? My 140 is filed on June 10, 2005.

Thanks,
LaborCleared.
 
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